Spatio-temporal forecasting is crucial in many domains, such as transportation, meteorology, and energy. However, real-world scenarios frequently present challenges such as signal anomalies, noise, and distributional shifts. Existing solutions primarily enhance robustness by modifying network architectures or training procedures. Nevertheless, these approaches are computationally intensive and resource-demanding, especially for large-scale applications. In this paper, we explore a novel test-time computing paradigm, namely learning with calibration, ST-TTC, for spatio-temporal forecasting. Through learning with calibration, we aim to capture periodic structural biases arising from non-stationarity during the testing phase and perform real-time bias correction on predictions to improve accuracy. Specifically, we first introduce a spectral-domain calibrator with phase-amplitude modulation to mitigate periodic shift and then propose a flash updating mechanism with a streaming memory queue for efficient test-time computation. ST-TTC effectively bypasses complex training-stage techniques, offering an efficient and generalizable paradigm. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness, universality, flexibility and efficiency of our proposed method.

This paper studies reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) for aligning large language models with human preferences. While RLHF has demonstrated promising results, many algorithms are highly sensitive to misspecifications in the underlying preference model (e.g., the Bradley-Terry model), the reference policy, or the reward function, resulting in undesirable fine-tuning. To address model misspecification, we propose a doubly robust preference optimization algorithm that remains consistent when either the preference model or the reference policy is correctly specified (without requiring both). Our proposal demonstrates superior and more robust performance than state-of-the-art algorithms, both in theory and in practice. The code is available at https://github.com/DRPO4LLM/DRPO4LLM

Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) methods have emerged as a widely adopted strategy for adapting pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to downstream tasks, significantly reducing memory and computational costs. However, most existing PEFT techniques uniformly deploy LoRA adapters across all layers, disregarding the intrinsic heterogeneity of layer contributions and task-specific rank requirements. This uniform paradigm leads to redundant parameter allocation and suboptimal adaptation efficiency. To address these limitations, we propose FLoE, a novel PEFT framework that introduces two key innovations: (i) a Fisher information-guided importance scoring mechanism to dynamically identify task-critical transformer layers for MoE-based low-rank adaptation, enabling sparse adapter deployment; and (ii) a Bayesian optimization-driven rank allocator that automatically determines optimal LoRA ranks on specific datasets without exhaustive grid search. Extensive experiments across diverse LLMs and benchmarks reveal that FLoE achieves impressive efficiency-accuracy trade-offs, making FLoE particularly advantageous in resource-constrained environments that necessitate rapid adaptation.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have attracted considerable attention in recent years due to their remarkable compatibility with Hardware Description Language (HDL) design. In this paper, we examine the performance of three major LLMs, Claude 3 Opus, ChatGPT-4, and ChatGPT-4o, in designing finite state machines (FSMs). By utilizing the instructional content provided by HDLBits, we evaluate the stability, limitations, and potential approaches for improving the success rates of these models. Furthermore, we explore the impact of using the prompt-refining method, To-do-Oriented Prompting (TOP) Patch, on the success rate of these LLM models in various FSM design scenarios. The results show that the systematic format prompt method and the novel prompt refinement method have the potential to be applied to other domains beyond HDL design automation, considering its possible integration with other prompt engineering techniques in the future.

Automating AI research holds immense potential for accelerating scientific progress, yet current AI agents struggle with the complexities of rigorous, end-to-end experimentation. We introduce EXP-Bench, a novel benchmark designed to systematically evaluate AI agents on complete research experiments sourced from influential AI publications. Given a research question and incomplete starter code, EXP-Bench challenges AI agents to formulate hypotheses, design and implement experimental procedures, execute them, and analyze results. To enable the creation of such intricate and authentic tasks with high-fidelity, we design a semi-autonomous pipeline to extract and structure crucial experimental details from these research papers and their associated open-source code. With the pipeline, EXP-Bench curated 461 AI research tasks from 51 top-tier AI research papers. Evaluations of leading LLM-based agents, such as OpenHands and IterativeAgent on EXP-Bench demonstrate partial capabilities: while scores on individual experimental aspects such as design or implementation correctness occasionally reach 20-35%, the success rate for complete, executable experiments was a mere 0.5%. By identifying these bottlenecks and providing realistic step-by-step experiment procedures, EXP-Bench serves as a vital tool for future AI agents to improve their ability to conduct AI research experiments. EXP-Bench is open-sourced at https://github.com/Just-Curieous/Curie/tree/main/benchmark/exp_bench.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently been applied to forecasting tasks, with some works claiming these systems match or exceed human performance. In this paper, we argue that, as a community, we should be careful about such conclusions as evaluating LLM forecasters presents unique challenges. We identify two broad categories of issues: (1) difficulty in trusting evaluation results due to many forms of temporal leakage, and (2) difficulty in extrapolating from evaluation performance to real-world forecasting. Through systematic analysis and concrete examples from prior work, we demonstrate how evaluation flaws can raise concerns about current and future performance claims. We argue that more rigorous evaluation methodologies are needed to confidently assess the forecasting abilities of LLMs.

Speculative decoding has emerged as a promising approach to accelerating large language model (LLM) generation using a fast drafter while maintaining alignment with the target model's distribution. However, existing approaches face a trade-off: external drafters offer flexibility but can suffer from slower drafting, while self-speculation methods use drafters tailored to the target model but require re-training. In this paper, we introduce novel drafters based on Mamba, a state-of-the-art state space model (SSM), as a solution that combines the best aspects of both approaches. By leveraging the linear structure of SSMs, our approach avoids the quadratic complexity inherent in traditional Transformer-based methods, enabling faster drafting and lower memory usage while maintaining the flexibility to work across different target models. We further enhance efficiency with a novel test-time tree search algorithm for generating high-quality draft candidates. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that Mamba-based drafters not only outperform existing external drafting methods but are also comparable to state-of-the-art self-speculation approaches while using less memory and maintaining their cross-model adaptability.

Generalized policy and execution efficiency constitute the two critical challenges in robotic manipulation. While recent foundation policies benefit from the common-sense reasoning capabilities of internet-scale pretrained vision-language models (VLMs), they often suffer from low execution frequency. To mitigate this dilemma, dual-system approaches, inspired by Kahneman's theory, have been proposed to leverage a VLM-based System 2 model handling high-level reasoning and a separate System 1 action model ensuring real-time control. However, existing designs maintain both systems as separate models, limiting System 1 from fully leveraging the rich pretrained knowledge from the VLM-based System 2. In this work, we propose Fast-in-Slow (FiS), a unified dual-system vision-language-action (VLA) model that embeds the System 1 execution module within the VLM-based System 2 by partially sharing parameters. This innovative paradigm not only enables high-frequency execution in System 1 but also facilitates coordination between the reasoning and execution components within a single foundation model of System 2. Given their fundamentally distinct roles within FiS-VLA, we design the two systems to incorporate heterogeneous modality inputs alongside asynchronous operating frequencies, enabling both fast and precise manipulation. To enable coordination between the two systems, a dual-aware co-training strategy is proposed that equips System 1 with action generation capabilities while preserving System 2's contextual reasoning representation. For evaluation, FiS-VLA outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods by 8% in simulation and 11% in real-world tasks in terms of average success rate, while achieving a 117.7 Hz control frequency with action chunk set to eight. Project web page: fast-in-slow.github.io.

Text-to-image diffusion models excel at generating high-quality, diverse images from natural language prompts. However, they often fail to produce semantically accurate results when the prompt contains concept combinations that contradict their learned priors. We define this failure mode as contextual contradiction, where one concept implicitly negates another due to entangled associations learned during training. To address this, we propose a stage-aware prompt decomposition framework that guides the denoising process using a sequence of proxy prompts. Each proxy prompt is constructed to match the semantic content expected to emerge at a specific stage of denoising, while ensuring contextual coherence. To construct these proxy prompts, we leverage a large language model (LLM) to analyze the target prompt, identify contradictions, and generate alternative expressions that preserve the original intent while resolving contextual conflicts. By aligning prompt information with the denoising progression, our method enables fine-grained semantic control and accurate image generation in the presence of contextual contradictions. Experiments across a variety of challenging prompts show substantial improvements in alignment to the textual prompt.