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How Effective are Large Time Series Models in Hydrology? A Study on Water Level Forecasting in Everglades

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Everglades play a crucial role in flood and drought regulation, water resource planning, and ecosystem management in the surrounding regions. However, traditional physics-based and statistical methods for predicting water levels often face significant challenges, including high computational costs and limited adaptability to diverse or unforeseen conditions. Recent advancements in large time series models have demonstrated the potential to address these limitations, with state-of-the-art deep learning and foundation models achieving remarkable success in time series forecasting across various domains. Despite this progress, their application to critical environmental systems, such as the Everglades, remains underexplored. In this study, we fill the gap by investigating twelve task-specific models and five time series foundation models across six categories for a real-world application focused on water level prediction in the Everglades. Our primary results show that the foundation model Chronos significantly outperforms all other models while the remaining foundation models exhibit relatively poor performance. We also noticed that the performance of task-specific models varies with the model architectures, and discussed the possible reasons. We hope our study and findings will inspire the community to explore the applicability of large time series models in hydrological applications. The code and data are available at https://github.com/rahuul2992000/


Rethinking industrial artificial intelligence: a unified foundation framework

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advancements in industrial artificial intelligence (AI) are reshaping the industry by driving smarter manufacturing, predictive maintenance, and intelligent decision-making. However, existing approaches often focus primarily on algorithms and models while overlooking the importance of systematically integrating domain knowledge, data, and models to develop more comprehensive and effective AI solutions. Therefore, the effective development and deployment of industrial AI require a more comprehensive and systematic approach. To address this gap, this paper reviews previous research, rethinks the role of industrial AI, and proposes a unified industrial AI foundation framework comprising three core modules: the knowledge module, data module, and model module. These modules help to extend and enhance the industrial AI methodology platform, supporting various industrial applications. In addition, a case study on rotating machinery diagnosis is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, and several future directions are highlighted for the development of the industrial AI foundation framework.


Learning to Reason for Factuality

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reasoning Large Language Models (R-LLMs) have significantly advanced complex reasoning tasks but often struggle with factuality, generating substantially more hallucinations than their non-reasoning counterparts on long-form factuality benchmarks. However, extending online Reinforcement Learning (RL), a key component in recent R-LLM advancements, to the long-form factuality setting poses several unique challenges due to the lack of reliable verification methods. Previous work has utilized automatic factuality evaluation frameworks such as FActScore to curate preference data in the offline RL setting, yet we find that directly leveraging such methods as the reward in online RL leads to reward hacking in multiple ways, such as producing less detailed or relevant responses. We propose a novel reward function that simultaneously considers the factual precision, response detail level, and answer relevance, and applies online RL to learn high quality factual reasoning. Evaluated on six long-form factuality benchmarks, our factual reasoning model achieves an average reduction of 23.1 percentage points in hallucination rate, a 23% increase in answer detail level, and no degradation in the overall response helpfulness.


Cooper: Co-Optimizing Policy and Reward Models in Reinforcement Learning for Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance in reasoning tasks, where reinforcement learning (RL) serves as a key algorithm for enhancing their reasoning capabilities. Currently, there are two mainstream reward paradigms: model-based rewards and rule-based rewards. However, both approaches suffer from limitations: rule-based rewards lack robustness, while model-based rewards are vulnerable to reward hacking. To address these issues, we propose Cooper(Co-optimizing Policy Model and Reward Model), a RL framework that jointly optimizes both the policy model and the reward model. Cooper leverages the high precision of rule-based rewards when identifying correct responses, and dynamically constructs and selects positive-negative sample pairs for continued training the reward model. This design enhances robustness and mitigates the risk of reward hacking. To further support Cooper, we introduce a hybrid annotation strategy that efficiently and accurately generates training data for the reward model. We also propose a reference-based reward modeling paradigm, where the reward model takes a reference answer as input. Based on this design, we train a reward model named VerifyRM, which achieves higher accuracy on VerifyBench compared to other models of the same size. We conduct reinforcement learning using both VerifyRM and Cooper. Our experiments show that Cooper not only alleviates reward hacking but also improves end-to-end RL performance, for instance, achieving a 0.54% gain in average accuracy on Qwen2.5-1.5B-Instruct. Our findings demonstrate that dynamically updating reward model is an effective way to combat reward hacking, providing a reference for better integrating reward models into RL.


The World According to LLMs: How Geographic Origin Influences LLMs' Entity Deduction Capabilities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been extensively tuned to mitigate explicit biases, yet they often exhibit subtle implicit biases rooted in their pre-training data. Rather than directly probing LLMs with human-crafted questions that may trigger guardrails, we propose studying how models behave when they proactively ask questions themselves. The 20 Questions game, a multi-turn deduction task, serves as an ideal testbed for this purpose. We systematically evaluate geographic performance disparities in entity deduction using a new dataset, Geo20Q+, consisting of both notable people and culturally significant objects (e.g., foods, landmarks, animals) from diverse regions. We test popular LLMs across two gameplay configurations (canonical 20-question and unlimited turns) and in seven languages (English, Hindi, Mandarin, Japanese, French, Spanish, and Turkish). Our results reveal geographic disparities: LLMs are substantially more successful at deducing entities from the Global North than the Global South, and the Global West than the Global East. While Wikipedia pageviews and pre-training corpus frequency correlate mildly with performance, they fail to fully explain these disparities. Notably, the language in which the game is played has minimal impact on performance gaps. These findings demonstrate the value of creative, free-form evaluation frameworks for uncovering subtle biases in LLMs that remain hidden in standard prompting setups. By analyzing how models initiate and pursue reasoning goals over multiple turns, we find geographic and cultural disparities embedded in their reasoning processes. We release the dataset (Geo20Q+) and code at https://sites.google.com/view/llmbias20q/home.


GRAIL:Learning to Interact with Large Knowledge Graphs for Retrieval Augmented Reasoning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) integrated with Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) techniques have exhibited remarkable performance across a wide range of domains. However, existing RAG approaches primarily operate on unstructured data and demonstrate limited capability in handling structured knowledge such as knowledge graphs. Meanwhile, current graph retrieval methods fundamentally struggle to capture holistic graph structures while simultaneously facing precision control challenges that manifest as either critical information gaps or excessive redundant connections, collectively undermining reasoning performance. To address this challenge, we propose GRAIL: Graph-Retrieval Augmented Interactive Learning, a framework designed to interact with large-scale graphs for retrieval-augmented reasoning. Specifically, GRAIL integrates LLM-guided random exploration with path filtering to establish a data synthesis pipeline, where a fine-grained reasoning trajectory is automatically generated for each task. Based on the synthesized data, we then employ a two-stage training process to learn a policy that dynamically decides the optimal actions at each reasoning step. The overall objective of precision-conciseness balance in graph retrieval is decoupled into fine-grained process-supervised rewards to enhance data efficiency and training stability. In practical deployment, GRAIL adopts an interactive retrieval paradigm, enabling the model to autonomously explore graph paths while dynamically balancing retrieval breadth and precision. Extensive experiments have shown that GRAIL achieves an average accuracy improvement of 21.01% and F1 improvement of 22.43% on three knowledge graph question-answering datasets. Our source code and datasets is available at https://github.com/Changgeww/GRAIL.


Whose Truth? Pluralistic Geo-Alignment for (Agentic) AI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AI (super) alignment describes the challenge of ensuring (future) AI systems behave in accordance with societal norms and goals. While a quickly evolving literature is addressing biases and inequalities, the geographic variability of alignment remains underexplored. Simply put, what is considered appropriate, truthful, or legal can differ widely across regions due to cultural norms, political realities, and legislation. Alignment measures applied to AI/ML workflows can sometimes produce outcomes that diverge from statistical realities, such as text-to-image models depicting balanced gender ratios in company leadership despite existing imbalances. Crucially, some model outputs are globally acceptable, while others, e.g., questions about Kashmir, depend on knowing the user's location and their context. This geographic sensitivity is not new. For instance, Google Maps renders Kashmir's borders differently based on user location. What is new is the unprecedented scale and automation with which AI now mediates knowledge, expresses opinions, and represents geographic reality to millions of users worldwide, often with little transparency about how context is managed. As we approach Agentic AI, the need for spatio-temporally aware alignment, rather than one-size-fits-all approaches, is increasingly urgent. This paper reviews key geographic research problems, suggests topics for future work, and outlines methods for assessing alignment sensitivity.


Large Language Models Transform Organic Synthesis From Reaction Prediction to Automation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) are beginning to reshape how chemists plan and run reactions in organic synthesis. Trained on millions of reported transformations, these text-based models can propose synthetic routes, forecast reaction outcomes and even instruct robots that execute experiments without human supervision. Here we survey the milestones that turned LLMs from speculative tools into practical lab partners. We show how coupling LLMs with graph neural networks, quantum calculations and real-time spectroscopy shrinks discovery cycles and supports greener, data-driven chemistry. We discuss limitations, including biased datasets, opaque reasoning and the need for safety gates that prevent unintentional hazards. Finally, we outline community initiatives open benchmarks, federated learning and explainable interfaces that aim to democratize access while keeping humans firmly in control. These advances chart a path towards rapid, reliable and inclusive molecular innovation powered by artificial intelligence and automation.


Building Effective Safety Guardrails in AI Education Tools

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

There has been rapid development in generative AI tools across the education sector, which in turn is leading to increased adoption by teachers. However, this raises concerns regarding the safety and age-appropriateness of the AI-generated content that is being created for use in classrooms. This paper explores Oak National Academy's approach to addressing these concerns within the development of the UK Government's first publicly available generative AI tool - our AI-powered lesson planning assistant (Aila). Aila is intended to support teachers planning national curriculum-aligned lessons that are appropriate for pupils aged 5-16 years. To mitigate safety risks associated with AI-generated content we have implemented four key safety guardrails: (1) prompt engineering to ensure AI outputs are generated within pedagogically sound and curriculum-aligned parameters; (2) input threat detection to mitigate attacks; (3) an Independent Asynchronous Content Moderation Agent (IACMA) to assess outputs against predefined safety categories; and (4) taking a human-in-the-loop approach, to encourage teachers to review generated content before it is used in the classroom. Through our on-going evaluation of these safety guardrails we have identified several challenges and opportunities to take into account when implementing and testing safety guardrails. This paper highlights ways to build more effective safety guardrails in generative AI education tools including the on-going iteration and refinement of guardrails, as well as enabling cross-sector collaboration through sharing both open-source code/datasets and learnings.


Information-Theoretic Graph Fusion with Vision-Language-Action Model for Policy Reasoning and Dual Robotic Control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Teaching robots dexterous skills from human videos remains challenging due to the reliance on low-level trajectory imitation, which fails to generalize across object types, spatial layouts, and manipulator configurations. We propose Graph-Fused Vision-Language-Action (GF-VLA), a framework that enables dual-arm robotic systems to perform task-level reasoning and execution directly from RGB and Depth human demonstrations. GF-VLA first extracts Shannon-information-based cues to identify hands and objects with the highest task relevance, then encodes these cues into temporally ordered scene graphs that capture both hand-object and object-object interactions. These graphs are fused with a language-conditioned transformer that generates hierarchical behavior trees and interpretable Cartesian motion commands. To improve execution efficiency in bimanual settings, we further introduce a cross-hand selection policy that infers optimal gripper assignment without explicit geometric reasoning. We evaluate GF-VLA on four structured dual-arm block assembly tasks involving symbolic shape construction and spatial generalization. Experimental results show that the information-theoretic scene representation achieves over 95 percent graph accuracy and 93 percent subtask segmentation, supporting the LLM planner in generating reliable and human-readable task policies. When executed by the dual-arm robot, these policies yield 94 percent grasp success, 89 percent placement accuracy, and 90 percent overall task success across stacking, letter-building, and geometric reconfiguration scenarios, demonstrating strong generalization and robustness across diverse spatial and semantic variations.