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The Download: growing threats to vulnerable languages, and fact-checking Trump's medical claims

MIT Technology Review

Plus: Huntington's disease has been treated successfully for the first time. Wikipedia is the most ambitious multilingual project after the Bible: There are editions in over 340 languages, and a further 400 even more obscure ones are being developed. But many of these smaller editions are being swamped with AI-translated content. Volunteers working on four African languages, for instance, estimated to that between 40% and 60% of articles in their Wikipedia editions were uncorrected machine translations. This is beginning to cause a wicked problem. AI systems learn new languages by scraping huge quantities of text from the internet.



'ChatGPT, what stocks should I buy?' AI fuels boom in robo-advisory market

The Japan Times

'ChatGPT, what stocks should I buy?' AI fuels boom in robo-advisory market Stock picking using ChatGPT requires some financial knowledge and even its adopters say there is a high risk of getting it wrong before getting it right. LONDON - As ChatGPT nears its third birthday, at least one in 10 retail investors is using a chatbot to pick stocks, fueling a boom in the robo-advisory market, but even fans say it is a high-risk strategy that cannot replace traditional advisers just yet. Thanks to artificial intelligence, anyone can select stocks, monitor them and obtain investment analysis that was once only available to big banks or institutional investors. The robo-advisory market -- which includes all companies providing automated, algorithm-driven financial advice such as fintech, banks and wealth managers -- is forecast to grow to $470.91 billion in revenues in 2029 from $61.75 billion last year, marking a roughly 600% increase, according to data analysis firm Research and Markets. In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever.


Meta Poaches OpenAI Scientist to Help Lead AI Lab

WIRED

Yang Song, who previously led the strategic explorations team at OpenAI, is the new'research principal' of Meta Superintelligence Labs. Mark Zuckerberg has poached a high-ranking OpenAI researcher to be the research principal of Meta Superintelligence Labs (MSL). Yang Song, who previously led the strategic explorations team at OpenAI, is now reporting to Shengjia Zhao, another OpenAI alum who has overseen the buzzy AI effort since July, according to multiple sources. He started earlier this month. The move comes after Zuckerberg went on a hiring blitz earlier this summer, bringing in at least 11 top researchers from OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic.


Investigating Security Implications of Automatically Generated Code on the Software Supply Chain

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, various software supply chain (SSC) attacks have posed significant risks to the global community. Severe consequences may arise if developers integrate insecure code snippets that are vulnerable to SSC attacks into their products. Particularly, code generation techniques, such as large language models (LLMs), have been widely utilized in the developer community. However, LLMs are known to suffer from inherent issues when generating code, including fabrication, misinformation, and reliance on outdated training data, all of which can result in serious software supply chain threats. In this paper, we investigate the security threats to the SSC that arise from these inherent issues. We examine three categories of threats, including eleven potential SSC-related threats, related to external components in source code, and continuous integration configuration files. We find some threats in LLM-generated code could enable attackers to hijack software and workflows, while some others might cause potential hidden threats that compromise the security of the software over time. To understand these security impacts and severity, we design a tool, SSCGuard, to generate 439,138 prompts based on SSC-related questions collected online, and analyze the responses of four popular LLMs from GPT and Llama. Our results show that all identified SSC-related threats persistently exist. To mitigate these risks, we propose a novel prompt-based defense mechanism, namely Chain-of-Confirmation, to reduce fabrication, and a middleware-based defense that informs users of various SSC threats.


Mamba Modulation: On the Length Generalization of Mamba

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The quadratic complexity of the attention mechanism in Transformer models has motivated the development of alternative architectures with sub-quadratic scaling, such as state-space models. Among these, Mamba has emerged as a leading architecture, achieving state-of-the-art results across a range of language modeling tasks. However, Mamba's performance significantly deteriorates when applied to contexts longer than those seen during pre-training, revealing a sharp sensitivity to context length extension. Through detailed analysis, we attribute this limitation to the out-of-distribution behaviour of its state-space dynamics, particularly within the parameterization of the state transition matrix $\mathbf{A}$. Unlike recent works which attribute this sensitivity to the vanished accumulation of discretization time steps, $\exp(-\sum_{t=1}^Nฮ”_t)$, we establish a connection between state convergence behavior as the input length approaches infinity and the spectrum of the transition matrix $\mathbf{A}$, offering a well-founded explanation of its role in length extension. Next, to overcome this challenge, we propose an approach that applies spectrum scaling to pre-trained Mamba models to enable robust long-context generalization by selectively modulating the spectrum of $\mathbf{A}$ matrices in each layer. We show that this can significantly improve performance in settings where simply modulating $ฮ”_t$ fails, validating our insights and providing avenues for better length generalization of state-space models with structured transition matrices.


Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Models using Approximate Bayesian Computation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Despite their widespread applications, Large Language Models (LLMs) often struggle to express uncertainty, posing a challenge for reliable deployment in high stakes and safety critical domains like clinical diagnostics. Existing standard baseline methods such as model logits and elicited probabilities produce overconfident and poorly calibrated estimates. In this work, we propose Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), a likelihood-free Bayesian inference, based approach that treats LLMs as a stochastic simulator to infer posterior distributions over predictive probabilities. We evaluate our ABC approach on two clinically relevant benchmarks: a synthetic oral lesion diagnosis dataset and the publicly available GretelAI symptom-to-diagnosis dataset. Compared to standard baselines, our approach improves accuracy by up to 46.9\%, reduces Brier scores by 74.4\%, and enhances calibration as measured by Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and predictive entropy.


Unveiling the Role of Learning Rate Schedules via Functional Scaling Laws

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Scaling laws have played a cornerstone role in guiding the training of large language models (LLMs). However, most existing works on scaling laws primarily focus on the final-step loss, overlooking the loss dynamics during the training process and, crucially, the impact of learning rate schedule (LRS). In this paper, we aim to bridge this gap by studying a teacher-student kernel regression setup trained via online stochastic gradient descent (SGD). Leveraging a novel intrinsic time viewpoint and stochastic differential equation (SDE) modeling of SGD, we introduce the Functional Scaling Law (FSL), which characterizes the evolution of population risk during the training process for general LRSs. Remarkably, the impact of the LRSs is captured through an explicit convolution-type functional term, making their effects fully tractable. To illustrate the utility of FSL, we analyze three widely used LRSs -- constant, exponential decay, and warmup-stable-decay (WSD) -- under both data-limited and compute-limited regimes. We provide theoretical justification for widely adopted empirical practices in LLMs pre-training such as (i) higher-capacity models are more data- and compute-efficient; (ii) learning rate decay can improve training efficiency; (iii) WSD-like schedules can outperform direct-decay schedules. Lastly, we explore the practical relevance of FSL as a surrogate model for fitting, predicting and optimizing the loss curves in LLM pre-training, with experiments conducted across model sizes ranging from 0.1B to 1B parameters. We hope our FSL framework can deepen the understanding of LLM pre-training dynamics and provide insights for improving large-scale model training.


FedOne: Query-Efficient Federated Learning for Black-box Discrete Prompt Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Black-Box Discrete Prompt Learning is a prompt-tuning method that optimizes discrete prompts without accessing model parameters or gradients, making the prompt tuning on a cloud-based Large Language Model (LLM) feasible. Adapting federated learning to BDPL could further enhance prompt tuning performance by leveraging data from diverse sources. However, all previous research on federated black-box prompt tuning had neglected the substantial query cost associated with the cloud-based LLM service. To address this gap, we conducted a theoretical analysis of query efficiency within the context of federated black-box prompt tuning. Our findings revealed that degrading FedAvg to activate only one client per round, a strategy we called \textit{FedOne}, enabled optimal query efficiency in federated black-box prompt learning. Building on this insight, we proposed the FedOne framework, a federated black-box discrete prompt learning method designed to maximize query efficiency when interacting with cloud-based LLMs. We conducted numerical experiments on various aspects of our framework, demonstrating a significant improvement in query efficiency, which aligns with our theoretical results.