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Eliciting Chain-of-Thought Reasoning for Time Series Analysis using Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Complex numerical time series analysis often demands multi-step reasoning capabilities beyond current models' reach. Tasks like medical diagnosis and weather forecasting require sequential reasoning processes -- including counterfactual analysis, logical deduction, knowledge application, and multi-modal contextual integration -- that existing time series models cannot explicitly perform. While recent research has shown large language models (LLMs) can achieve sophisticated Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning through reinforcement learning (RL), these advances have primarily focused on mathematical and coding domains, with LLMs still demonstrating poor performance on time series tasks. We introduce Chain Of thought for Understanding Numerical Time Series (COUNTS), the first framework that trains LLMs to perform CoT reasoning across diverse time series tasks using RL with verifiable rewards. Our approach employs a Residual Vector-Quantized VAE to create high-fidelity discrete tokens that seamlessly integrate into a pre-trained LLM's vocabulary. COUNTS undergoes a two-stage training process: first, supervised fine-tuning on time series analysis tasks to master our novel representations, followed by Group Relative Policy Optimization training on verifiable problems using prompting strategies that encourage explicit reasoning steps before producing final answers. Our experiments demonstrate that this RL-driven approach with intermediate CoT reasoning significantly enhances LLM performance across various time series analysis tasks, opening new possibilities for complex temporal data reasoning.


Augmenting LLMs for General Time Series Understanding and Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Time series data is fundamental to decision-making in many crucial domains including healthcare, finance, and environmental science. However, analyzing this data often requires incorporating unstructured contextual information, answering domain-specific questions, and generating natural language explanations -- capabilities that traditional time series models lack due to their inability to process text. While Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at contextual reasoning and knowledge integration, they struggle with numerical time series due to inefficient text-based representations and limited exposure to temporal data during pretraining. We address this gap by augmenting an LLM with specialized time series perception through a patch-based encoder-decoder architecture. We train this Time Series-augmented LLM (TsLLM) on a large corpus of over 2 million interleaved time series and text examples spanning diverse analysis tasks: forecasting with contextual information, time series question-answering, pattern explanation, classification with natural language outputs, and report generation. This training enables TsLLM to leverage both its language understanding and newly acquired temporal reasoning capabilities. While not designed to surpass specialized models on traditional benchmarks, TsLLM demonstrates strong performance on tasks requiring the integration of time series analysis with natural language -- capabilities that existing approaches cannot provide. Our work establishes a new paradigm for time series analysis that bridges numerical computation and natural language understanding, democratizing access to sophisticated temporal reasoning through natural language interaction.


Making, not Taking, the Best of N

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Obtaining high-quality generations in modern LLMs has largely been framed as a selection problem: identifying a single winning generation from a diverse pool of N samples, the Best-of-N (BoN). Yet, this approach is inherently zero-sum, discarding diverse and potentially useful information from the pool. Instead, we explore a collaborative setup, where all candidates can potentially contribute to the final winning generation. To this end, we propose Fusion-of-N (FusioN): a method that uses a general LLM judge to synthesize the most informative elements of each sample into a single final answer. We compare FusioN to BoN in two settings, (i) test-time scaling, where we sample and aggregate from a single model at test-time (ii) synthetic data generation, where we fuse samples from a pool of diverse teachers to improve a student model. We extensively benchmark both setups across 11 languages, 3 diverse tasks and varying model scales. Across the bench, FusioN consistently outperforms BoN showing versatility and robustness both in test-time scaling and in downstream gains from synthetic data generation. We also perform extensive analysis on FusioN, where it shows surprising strengths and robustness under challenging settings. These results show that we should shift how we think about evaluating and utilizing LLM generations from a monolithic measure of quality, to embracing their polylithic nature. This shift allows us to integrate diverse strengths, unlock latent potential, and achieve improvements that were previously inaccessible through selection alone.


RiskPO: Risk-based Policy Optimization via Verifiable Reward for LLM Post-Training

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning with verifiable reward has recently emerged as a central paradigm for post-training large language models (LLMs); however, prevailing mean-based methods, such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), suffer from entropy collapse and limited reasoning gains. We argue that these issues stem from overemphasizing high-probability output sequences while neglecting rare but informative reasoning paths. To address these challenges, we propose Risk-based Policy Optimization (RiskPO), which substitutes classical mean-based objectives with principled risk measures. Specifically, we introduce a Mixed V alue-at-Risk objective that integrates weighted attention over multiple regions of the reward distribution, thereby amplifying gradient signals on challenging instances and preventing overconfident convergence. Theoretically, we prove that the risk-averse update alleviates entropy collapse and promotes exploration. Numerically, RiskPO achieves consistent and significant improvements in mathematical reasoning, multi-modal reasoning, and code generation benchmarks, surpassing GRPO and its variants on both Pass@1 and Pass@k metrics. Our results demonstrate that risk-based optimization provides a rigorous and effective paradigm for enhancing LLM reasoning capabilities. Since reinforcement learning (RL) provides a unified framework that flexibly accommodates diverse training targets and feedback, it has become a key technique for the post-training of large language models (LLMs). Based on such a foundation, RL with verifiable reward (RL VR) has recently been recognized as an effective paradigm for enhancing the reasoning ability of LLMs.


Learning Compact Representations of LLM Abilities via Item Response Theory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent years have witnessed a surge in the number of large language models (LLMs), yet efficiently managing and utilizing these vast resources remains a significant challenge. In this work, we explore how to learn compact representations of LLM abilities that can facilitate downstream tasks, such as model routing and performance prediction on new benchmarks. We frame this problem as estimating the probability that a given model will correctly answer a specific query. Inspired by the item response theory (IRT) in psychometrics, we model this probability as a function of three key factors: (i) the model's multi-skill ability vector, (2) the query's discrimination vector that separates models of differing skills, and (3) the query's difficulty scalar. To learn these parameters jointly, we introduce a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) network that couples model- and query-level embeddings. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach leads to state-of-the-art performance in both model routing and benchmark accuracy prediction. Moreover, analysis validates that the learned parameters encode meaningful, interpretable information about model capabilities and query characteristics.


CogVLA: Cognition-Aligned Vision-Language-Action Model via Instruction-Driven Routing & Sparsification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models built on pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) require extensive post-training, resulting in high computational overhead that limits scalability and deployment.We propose CogVLA, a Cognition-Aligned Vision-Language-Action framework that leverages instruction-driven routing and sparsification to improve both efficiency and performance. CogVLA draws inspiration from human multimodal coordination and introduces a 3-stage progressive architecture. 1) Encoder-FiLM based Aggregation Routing (EFA-Routing) injects instruction information into the vision encoder to selectively aggregate and compress dual-stream visual tokens, forming a instruction-aware latent representation. 2) Building upon this compact visual encoding, LLM-FiLM based Pruning Routing (LFP-Routing) introduces action intent into the language model by pruning instruction-irrelevant visually grounded tokens, thereby achieving token-level sparsity. 3) To ensure that compressed perception inputs can still support accurate and coherent action generation, we introduce V-L-A Coupled Attention (CAtten), which combines causal vision-language attention with bidirectional action parallel decoding. Extensive experiments on the LIBERO benchmark and real-world robotic tasks demonstrate that CogVLA achieves state-of-the-art performance with success rates of 97.4% and 70.0%, respectively, while reducing training costs by 2.5-fold and decreasing inference latency by 2.8-fold compared to OpenVLA. CogVLA is open-sourced and publicly available at https://github.com/JiuTian-VL/CogVLA.


CultranAI at PalmX 2025: Data Augmentation for Cultural Knowledge Representation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we report our participation to the PalmX cultural evaluation shared task. Our system, CultranAI, focused on data augmentation and LoRA fine-tuning of large language models (LLMs) for Arabic cultural knowledge representation. We benchmarked several LLMs to identify the best-performing model for the task. In addition to utilizing the PalmX dataset, we augmented it by incorporating the Palm dataset and curated a new dataset of over 22K culturally grounded multiple-choice questions (MCQs). Our experiments showed that the Fanar-1-9B-Instruct model achieved the highest performance. We fine-tuned this model on the combined augmented dataset of 22K+ MCQs. On the blind test set, our submitted system ranked 5th with an accuracy of 70.50%, while on the PalmX development set, it achieved an accuracy of 84.1%.


Neural Theorem Proving: Generating and Structuring Proofs for Formal Verification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Formally verifying properties of software code has been a highly desirable task, especially with the emergence of LLM-generated code. In the same vein, they provide an interesting avenue for the exploration of formal verification and mechanistic interpretability. Since the introduction of code-specific models, despite their successes in generating code in Lean4 and Isabelle, the task of generalized theorem proving still remains far from being fully solved and will be a benchmark for reasoning capability in LLMs. In this work, we introduce a framework that generates whole proofs in a formal language to be used within systems that utilize the power of built-in tactics and off-the-shelf automated theorem provers. Our framework includes 3 components: generating natural language statements of the code to be verified, an LLM that generates formal proofs for the given statement, and a module employing heuristics for building the final proof. To train the LLM, we employ a 2-stage fine-tuning process, where we first use SFT-based training to enable the model to generate syntactically correct Isabelle code and then RL-based training that encourages the model to generate proofs verified by a theorem prover. We validate our framework using the miniF2F-test benchmark and the Isabelle proof assistant and design a use case to verify the correctness of the A WS S3 bucket access policy code.


MCM-DPO: Multifaceted Cross-Modal Direct Preference Optimization for Alt-text Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The alt-text generation task produces concise, context-relevant descriptions of images, enabling blind and low-vision users to access online images. Despite the capabilities of large vision-language models, alt-text generation performance remains limited due to noisy user annotations, inconsistent standards, and MLLMs' insensitivity to contextual information. Previous efforts to fine-tune MLLMs using supervised fine-tuning (SFT) have struggled, as SFT relies on accurate target annotations, which are often flawed in user-generated alt-text. To address this, we propose Multi-faceted Cross-modal Direct Preference Optimization (MCM-DPO), which improves alt-text generation by learning to identify better options in preference pairs without requiring precise annotations. MCM-DPO optimizes preferences across single, paired, and multi-preference dimensions, covering textual, visual, and cross-modal factors. In light of the scarcity of high-quality annotated and preference-labeled datasets for alt-text, we constructed two large-scale, high-quality datasets named TAlt and PAlt, sourced from Twitter and Pinterest. These datasets include 202k annotated alt-text samples and 18k preference pairs that cover diverse preference dimensions, aiming to support further research in this domain. Experimental results show that our proposed MCM-DPO method consistently outperforms both DPO and SFT, establishing a new state of the art in alt-text generation. We release the code and data here: https://github.com/LVUGAI/MCM-DPO


Agent Fine-tuning through Distillation for Domain-specific LLMs in Microdomains

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Agentic large language models (LLMs) have become prominent for autonomously interacting with external environments and performing multi-step reasoning tasks. Most approaches leverage these capabilities via in-context learning with few-shot prompts, but this often results in lengthy inputs and higher computational costs. Agent fine-tuning offers an alternative by enabling LLMs to internalize procedural reasoning and domain-specific knowledge through training on relevant data and demonstration trajectories. While prior studies have focused on general domains, their effectiveness in specialized technical microdomains remains unclear. This paper explores agent fine-tuning for domain adaptation within Hitachi's JP1 middleware, a microdomain for specialized IT operations. We fine-tuned LLMs using JP1-specific datasets derived from domain manuals and distilled reasoning trajectories generated by LLMs themselves, enhancing decision making accuracy and search efficiency. During inference, we used an agentic prompt with retrieval-augmented generation and introduced a context-answer extractor to improve information relevance. On JP1 certification exam questions, our method achieved a 14% performance improvement over the base model, demonstrating the potential of agent fine-tuning for domain-specific reasoning in complex microdomains.