We give an unified convergence analysis of ensemble learning methods including e.g. AdaBoost, Logistic Regression and the Least-Square- Boost algorithm for regression. These methods have in common that they iteratively call a base learning algorithm which returns hypotheses that are then linearly combined. We show that these methods are related to the Gauss-Southwell method known from numerical optimization and state non-asymptotical convergence results for all these methods. Our analysis includes -norm regularized cost functions leading to a clean and general way to regularize ensemble learning.

The support vector machine (SVM) is known for its good performance in binary classification, but its extension to multi-class classification is still an ongoing research issue. In this paper, we propose a new approach for classification, called the import vector machine (IVM), which is built on kernel logistic regression (KLR). We show that the IVM not only performs aswell as the SVM in binary classification, but also can naturally be generalized to the multi-class case. Furthermore, the IVM provides an estimate of the underlying probability. Similar to the "support points" of the SVM, the IVM model uses only a fraction of the training data to index kernel basis functions, typically a much smaller fraction than the SVM. This gives the IVM a computational advantage over the SVM, especially when the size of the training data set is large.

We present an extension to the Mixture of Experts (ME) model, where the individual experts are Gaussian Process (GP) regression models. Using aninput-dependent adaptation of the Dirichlet Process, we implement agating network for an infinite number of Experts. Inference in this model may be done efficiently using a Markov Chain relying on Gibbs sampling. The model allows the effective covariance function to vary with the inputs, and may handle large datasets - thus potentially overcoming twoof the biggest hurdles with GP models.

We give an unified convergence analysis of ensemble learning methods includinge.g. AdaBoost, Logistic Regression and the Least-Square- Boost algorithm for regression. These methods have in common that they iteratively call a base learning algorithm which returns hypotheses that are then linearly combined. We show that these methods are related to the Gauss-Southwell method known from numerical optimization and state non-asymptotical convergence results for all these methods. Our analysis includes -norm regularized cost functions leading to a clean and general way to regularize ensemble learning.

Igor V. Cadez Information and Computer Science University of California Irvine, CA 92697-3425, U.S.A. PadhraicSmyth Information and Computer Science University of California Irvine, CA 92697-3425, U.S.A. Abstract We investigate a general characteristic of the tradeoff in learning problems between goodness-of-fit and model complexity. Specifically wecharacterize a general class of learning problems where the goodness-of-fit function can be shown to be convex within firstorder asa function of model complexity. This general property of "diminishing returns" is illustrated on a number of real data sets and learning problems, including finite mixture modeling and multivariate linear regression. 1 Introduction, Motivation, and Related Work Assume we have a data set D Such learning tasks can typically be characterized by the existence of a model and a loss function. A fitted model of complexity k is a function of the data points D and depends on a specific set of fitted parameters B. The loss function (goodnessof-fit) isa functional of the model and maps each specific model to a scalar used to evaluate the model, e.g., likelihood for density estimation or sum-of-squares for regression. Figure 1 illustrates a typical empirical curve for loss function versus complexity, for mixtures of Markov models fitted to a large data set of 900,000 sequences.

Fishers linear discriminant analysis (LDA) is a classical multivariate technique both for dimension reduction and classification. The data vectors are transformed into a low dimensional subspace such that the class centroids are spread out as much as possible. In this subspace LDA works as a simple prototype classifier with linear decision boundaries. However, in many applications the linear boundaries do not adequately separate the classes. We present a nonlinear generalization of discriminant analysis that uses the kernel trick of representing dot products by kernel functions.

Gaussian Processes are powerful regression models specified by parametrized mean and covariance functions. Standard approaches to estimate these parameters (known by the name Hyperparameters) are Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Maximum APosterior (MAP) approaches. In this paper, we propose and investigate predictive approaches, namely, maximization of Geisser's Surrogate Predictive Probability (GPP) and minimization of mean square error with respect to GPP (referred to as Geisser's Predictive mean square Error (GPE)) to estimate the hyperparameters. We also derive results for the standard Cross-Validation (CV) error and make a comparison. These approaches are tested on a number of problems and experimental results show that these approaches are strongly competitive to existing approaches. 1 Introduction Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful regression models that have gained popularity recently, though they have appeared in different forms in the literature for years.

Gaussian Processes are powerful regression models specified by parametrized mean and covariance functions. Standard approaches to estimate these parameters (known by the name Hyperparameters) are Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Maximum APosterior (MAP) approaches. In this paper, we propose and investigate predictive approaches, namely, maximization of Geisser's Surrogate Predictive Probability (GPP) and minimization of mean square error with respect to GPP (referred to as Geisser's Predictive mean square Error (GPE)) to estimate the hyperparameters. We also derive results for the standard Cross-Validation (CV) error and make a comparison. These approaches are tested on a number of problems and experimental results show that these approaches are strongly competitive to existing approaches. 1 Introduction Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful regression models that have gained popularity recently, though they have appeared in different forms in the literature for years.

Fishers linear discriminant analysis (LDA) is a classical multivariate technique both for dimension reduction and classification. The data vectors are transformed into a low dimensional subspace such that the class centroids are spread out as much as possible. In this subspace LDA works as a simple prototype classifier with linear decision boundaries. However, in many applications the linear boundaries do not adequately separate the classes. We present a nonlinear generalization of discriminant analysis that uses the kernel trick of representing dot products by kernel functions.

Local linear regression performs very well in many low-dimensional forecasting problems. In high-dimensional spaces, its performance typically decays due to the well-known "curse-of-dimensionality". A possible way to approach this problem is by varying the "shape" of the weighting kernel. In this work we suggest a new, data-driven method to estimating the optimal kernel shape. Experiments using an artificially generated data set and data from the UC Irvine repository show the benefits of kernel shaping. 1 Introduction Local linear regression has attracted considerable attention in both statistical and machine learning literature as a flexible tool for nonparametric regression analysis [Cle79, FG96, AMS97]. Like most statistical smoothing approaches, local modeling suffers from the so-called "curse-of-dimensionality", the well-known fact that the proportion of the training data that lie in a fixed-radius neighborhood of a point decreases to zero at an exponential rate with increasing dimension of the input space.