In this paper, we propose a novel approach for learning regression rules by transforming the regression problem into a classification problem. Unlike previous approaches to regression by classification, in our approach the discretization of the class variable is tightly integrated into the rule learning algorithm. The key idea is to dynamically define a region around the target value predicted by the rule, and considering all examples within that region as positive and all examples outside that region as negative. In this way, conventional rule learning heuristics may be used for inducing regression rules. Our results show that our heuristic algorithm outperforms approaches that use a static discretization of the target variable, and performs en par with other comparable rule-based approaches, albeit without reaching the performance of statistical approaches.

This paper identifies a widely existing phenomenon in web data, which we call the "words of few mouths" phenomenon. This phenomenon, in the context of online reviews, refers to the case that a large fraction of the reviews are each voted only by very few users. We discuss the challenges of "words of few mouths" in the development of recommender systems based on users' opinions and advocate probabilistic methodologies to handle such challenges. We develop a probabilistic model and correspondingly a logistic regression based learning algorithm for review helpfulness prediction. Our experimental results indicate that the proposed model outperforms the current state-of-the-art algorithms not only in the presence of the "words of few mouths" phenomenon, but also in the absence of such phenomena.

In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic classification model to address the task of semi-supervised learning. The major novelty of our proposal stems from measuring distributional relationships between the labeled and unlabeled data. This is achieved from a stochastic translation model between data distributions that is estimated from a mixture model. The proposed classifier is defined from the combination of both the translation model and a kernel logistic regression on labeled data. Experimental results obtained over synthetic and real-world data sets validate the usefulness of our proposal.

This paper presents a new Monte-Carlo search algorithm for very large sequential decision-making problems. We apply non-linear regression within Monte-Carlo search, online, to estimate a state-action value function from the outcomes of random roll-outs. This value function generalizes between related states and actions, and can therefore provide more accurate evaluations after fewer rollouts. A further significant advantage of this approach is its ability to automatically extract and leverage domain knowledge from external sources such as game manuals. We apply our algorithm to the game of Civilization II, a challenging multi-agent strategy game with an enormous state space and around 10^21 joint actions. We approximate the value function by a neural network, augmented by linguistic knowledge that is extracted automatically from the official game manual. We show that this non-linear value function is significantly more efficient than a linear value function, which is itself more efficient than Monte-Carlo tree search. Our non-linear Monte-Carlo search wins over 78% of games against the built-in AI of Civilization II.

The possibility that influenza activity can be generally detected through search log analysis has been explored in recent years. However, previous studies have mainly focused on influenza, and little attention has been paid to other epidemics. With an analysis of web user behavior data, we consider the problem of predicting the tendency of hand-foot -and-mouth disease  (HFMD), whose out-break in 2010 resulted in a great panic in China. In addi-tion to search queries, we consider users’ interactions with search engines. Given the collected search logs, we cluster HFMD-related search queries, medical pages and news reports into the following sets: epidemic-related queries (ERQs), epidemic-related pages (ERPs) and ep-idemic-related news (ERNs). Furthermore, we count their own frequencies as different features, and we conduct a regression analysis with current HFMD occurrences. The experimental results show that these features exhibit good performances on both accuracy and timeliness.

Purely data driven approaches for machine learning present difficulties when data is scarce relative to the complexity of the model or when the model is forced to extrapolate. On the other hand, purely mechanistic approaches need to identify and specify all the interactions in the problem at hand (which may not be feasible) and still leave the issue of how to parameterize the system. In this paper, we present a hybrid approach using Gaussian processes and differential equations to combine data driven modelling with a physical model of the system. We show how different, physically-inspired, kernel functions can be developed through sensible, simple, mechanistic assumptions about the underlying system. The versatility of our approach is illustrated with three case studies from motion capture, computational biology and geostatistics.

Online discussion boards, or Internet forums, are a significant part of the Internet. People use Internet forums to post questions, provide advice and participate in discussions. These online conversations are represented as threads, and the conversation trees within these threads are important in understanding the behaviour of online users. Unfortunately, the reply structures of these threads are generally not publicly accessible or not maintained. Hence, in this paper, we introduce an efficient and simple approach to reconstruct the reply structure in threaded conversations. We contrast its accuracy against three baseline algorithms, and show that our algorithm can accurately recreate the in and out degree distributions of forum reply graphs built from the reconstructed reply structures.

Sparse linear regression -- finding an unknown vector from linear measurements -- is now known to be possible with fewer samples than variables, via methods like the LASSO. We consider the multiple sparse linear regression problem, where several related vectors -- with partially shared support sets -- have to be recovered. A natural question in this setting is whether one can use the sharing to further decrease the overall number of samples required. A line of recent research has studied the use of \ell_1/\ell_q norm block-regularizations with q>1 for such problems; however these could actually perform worse in sample complexity -- vis a vis solving each problem separately ignoring sharing -- depending on the level of sharing. We present a new method for multiple sparse linear regression that can leverage support and parameter overlap when it exists, but not pay a penalty when it does not. A very simple idea: we decompose the parameters into two components and regularize these differently. We show both theoretically and empirically, our method strictly and noticeably outperforms both \ell_1 or \ell_1/\ell_q methods, over the entire range of possible overlaps (except at boundary cases, where we match the best method). We also provide theoretical guarantees that the method performs well under high-dimensional scaling.

Undirected graphs are often used to describe high dimensional distributions. Under sparsity conditions, the graph can be estimated using $\ell_1$-penalization methods. We propose and study the following method. We combine a multiple regression approach with ideas of thresholding and refitting: first we infer a sparse undirected graphical model structure via thresholding of each among many $\ell_1$-norm penalized regression functions; we then estimate the covariance matrix and its inverse using the maximum likelihood estimator. We show that under suitable conditions, this approach yields consistent estimation in terms of graphical structure and fast convergence rates with respect to the operator and Frobenius norm for the covariance matrix and its inverse. We also derive an explicit bound for the Kullback Leibler divergence.

In the current study we examine an application of the machine learning methods to model the retention constants in the thin layer chromatography (TLC). This problem can be described with hundreds or even thousands of descriptors relevant to various molecular properties, most of them redundant and not relevant for the retention constant prediction. Hence we employed feature selection to significantly reduce the number of attributes. Additionally we have tested application of the bagging procedure to the feature selection. The random forest regression models were built using selected variables. The resulting models have better correlation with the experimental data than the reference models obtained with linear regression. The cross-validation confirms robustness of the models.