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 Regression


Modeling Multiple Annotator Expertise in the Semi-Supervised Learning Scenario

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Learning algorithms normally assume that there is at most one annotation or label per data point. However, in some scenarios, such as medical diagnosis and on-line collaboration,multiple annotations may be available. In either case, obtaining labels for data points can be expensive and time-consuming (in some circumstances ground-truth may not exist). Semi-supervised learning approaches have shown that utilizing the unlabeled data is often beneficial in these cases. This paper presents a probabilistic semi-supervised model and algorithm that allows for learning from both unlabeled and labeled data in the presence of multiple annotators. We assume that it is known what annotator labeled which data points. The proposed approach produces annotator models that allow us to provide (1) estimates of the true label and (2) annotator variable expertise for both labeled and unlabeled data. We provide numerical comparisons under various scenarios and with respect to standard semi-supervised learning. Experiments showed that the presented approach provides clear advantages over multi-annotator methods that do not use the unlabeled data and over methods that do not use multi-labeler information.


Sparsity-Promoting Bayesian Dynamic Linear Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Sparsity-promoting priors have become increasingly popular over recent years due to an increased number of regression and classification applications involving a large number of predictors. In time series applications where observations are collected over time, it is often unrealistic to assume that the underlying sparsity pattern is fixed. We propose here an original class of flexible Bayesian linear models for dynamic sparsity modelling. The proposed class of models expands upon the existing Bayesian literature on sparse regression using generalized multivariate hyperbolic distributions. The properties of the models are explored through both analytic results and simulation studies. We demonstrate the model on a financial application where it is shown that it accurately represents the patterns seen in the analysis of stock and derivative data, and is able to detect major events by filtering an artificial portfolio of assets.


Defense Mechanism or Socialization Tactic? Improving Wikipediaโ€™s Notifications to Rejected Contributors

AAAI Conferences

Unlike traditional firms, open collaborative systems rely on volunteers to operate, and many communities struggle to maintain enough contributors to ensure the quality and quantity of content. However, Wikipedia has historically faced the exact opposite problem: too much participation, particularly from users who, knowingly or not, do not share the same norms as veteran Wikipedians. During its period of exponential growth, the Wikipedian community developed specialized socio-technical defense mechanisms to protect itself from the negatives of massive participation: spam, vandalism, falsehoods, and other damage. Yet recently, Wikipedia has faced a number of high-profile issues with recruiting and retaining new contributors. In this paper, we first illustrate and describe the various defense mechanisms at work in Wikipedia, which we hypothesize are inhibiting newcomer retention. Next, we present results from an experiment aimed at increasing both the quantity and quality of editors by altering various elements of these defense mechanisms, specifically pre-scripted warnings and notifications that are sent to new editors upon reverting or rejecting contributions. Using logistic regressions to model new user activity, we show which tactics work best for different populations of users based on their motivations when joining Wikipedia. In particular, we found that personalized messages in which Wikipedians identified themselves in active voice and took direct responsibility for rejecting an editorโ€™s contributions were much more successful across a variety of outcome metrics than the current messages, which typically use an institutional and passive voice.


What Catches Your Attention? An Empirical Study of Attention Patterns in Community Forums

AAAI Conferences

Online community managers work towards building and managing communities around a given brand or topic. A risk imposed on such managers is that their community may die out and its utility diminish to users. Understanding what drives attention to content and the dynamics of discussions in a given community informs the community manager and/or host with the factors that are associated with attention. In this paper we gain insights into the idiosyncrasies that individual community forums exhibit in their attention patterns and how the factors that impact activity differ. We glean such insights by using logistic regression models for identifying seed posts and explore the effectiveness of a range of features. Our findings show that the discussion behaviour of different communities is clearly impacted by different factors.


More of a Receiver Than a Giver: Why Do People Unfollow in Twitter?

AAAI Conferences

We propose a logistic regression model taking into account two analytically different sets of factorsโ€“structure and action. The factors include individual, dyadic, and triadic properties between ego and alter whose tie breakup is under consideration. From the fitted model using a large-scale data, we discover 5 structural and 7 actional variables to have significant explanatory power for unfollow. One unique finding from our quantitative analysis is that people appreciate receiving acknowledgements from others even in virtually unilateral communication relationships and are less likely to unfollow them: people are more of a receiver than a giver.


Trust Propagation with Mixed-Effects Models

AAAI Conferences

Web-based social networks typically use public trust systems to facilitate interactions between strangers. These systems can be corrupted by misleading information spread under the cover of anonymity, or exhibit a strong bias towards positive feedback, originating from the fear of reciprocity. Trust propagation algorithms seek to overcome these shortcomings by inferring trust ratings between strangers from trust ratings between acquaintances and the structure of the network that connects them. We investigate a trust propagation algorithm that is based on user triads where the trust one user has in another is predicted based on an intermediary user. The propagation function can be applied iteratively to propagate trust along paths between a source user and a target user. We evaluate this approach using the trust network of the CouchSurfing community, which consists of 7.6M trust-valued edges between 1.1M users. We show that our model out-performs one that relies only on the trustworthiness of the target user (a kind of public trust system). In addition, we show that performance is significantly improved by bringing in user-level variability using mixed-effects regression models.


Smoothing Proximal Gradient Method for General Structured Sparse Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the problem of learning high dimensional regression models regularized by a structured-sparsity-inducing penalty that encodes prior structural information on either input or output sides. We consider two widely adopted types of such penalties as our motivating examples: 1) overlapping group lasso penalty, based on the l1/l2 mixed-norm penalty, and 2) graph-guided fusion penalty. For both types of penalties, due to their non-separability, developing an efficient optimization method has remained a challenging problem. In this paper, we propose a general optimization approach, called smoothing proximal gradient method, which can solve the structured sparse regression problems with a smooth convex loss and a wide spectrum of structured-sparsity-inducing penalties. Our approach is based on a general smoothing technique of Nesterov. It achieves a convergence rate faster than the standard first-order method, subgradient method, and is much more scalable than the most widely used interior-point method. Numerical results are reported to demonstrate the efficiency and scalability of the proposed method.


Unfair items detection in educational measurement

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Measurement professionals cannot come to an agreement on the definition of the term 'item fairness'. In this paper a continuous measure of item unfairness is proposed. The more the unfairness measure deviates from zero, the less fair the item is. If the measure exceeds the cutoff value, the item is identified as definitely unfair. The new approach can identify unfair items that would not be identified with conventional procedures. The results are in accord with experts' judgments on the item qualities. Since no assumptions about scores distributions and/or correlations are assumed, the method is applicable to any educational test. Its performance is illustrated through application to scores of a real test.


A General Theory of Concave Regularization for High Dimensional Sparse Estimation Problems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Concave regularization methods provide natural procedures for sparse recovery. However, they are difficult to analyze in the high dimensional setting. Only recently a few sparse recovery results have been established for some specific local solutions obtained via specialized numerical procedures. Still, the fundamental relationship between these solutions such as whether they are identical or their relationship to the global minimizer of the underlying nonconvex formulation is unknown. The current paper fills this conceptual gap by presenting a general theoretical framework showing that under appropriate conditions, the global solution of nonconvex regularization leads to desirable recovery performance; moreover, under suitable conditions, the global solution corresponds to the unique sparse local solution, which can be obtained via different numerical procedures. Under this unified framework, we present an overview of existing results and discuss their connections. The unified view of this work leads to a more satisfactory treatment of concave high dimensional sparse estimation procedures, and serves as guideline for developing further numerical procedures for concave regularization.


Multi-view predictive partitioning in high dimensions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many modern data mining applications are concerned with the analysis of datasets in which the observations are described by paired high-dimensional vectorial representations or "views". Some typical examples can be found in web mining and genomics applications. In this article we present an algorithm for data clustering with multiple views, Multi-View Predictive Partitioning (MVPP), which relies on a novel criterion of predictive similarity between data points. We assume that, within each cluster, the dependence between multivariate views can be modelled by using a two-block partial least squares (TB-PLS) regression model, which performs dimensionality reduction and is particularly suitable for high-dimensional settings. The proposed MVPP algorithm partitions the data such that the within-cluster predictive ability between views is maximised. The proposed objective function depends on a measure of predictive influence of points under the TB-PLS model which has been derived as an extension of the PRESS statistic commonly used in ordinary least squares regression. Using simulated data, we compare the performance of MVPP to that of competing multi-view clustering methods which rely upon geometric structures of points, but ignore the predictive relationship between the two views. State-of-art results are obtained on benchmark web mining datasets.