Although the standard formulations of prediction problems involve fully-observed and noiseless data drawn in an i.i.d. manner, many applications involve noisy and/or missing data, possibly involving dependence, as well. We study these issues in the context of high-dimensional sparse linear regression, and propose novel estimators for the cases of noisy, missing and/or dependent data. Many standard approaches to noisy or missing data, such as those using the EM algorithm, lead to optimization problems that are inherently nonconvex, and it is difficult to establish theoretical guarantees on practical algorithms. While our approach also involves optimizing nonconvex programs, we are able to both analyze the statistical error associated with any global optimum, and more surprisingly, to prove that a simple algorithm based on projected gradient descent will converge in polynomial time to a small neighborhood of the set of all global minimizers. On the statistical side, we provide nonasymptotic bounds that hold with high probability for the cases of noisy, missing and/or dependent data. On the computational side, we prove that under the same types of conditions required for statistical consistency, the projected gradient descent algorithm is guaranteed to converge at a geometric rate to a near-global minimizer. We illustrate these theoretical predictions with simulations, showing close agreement with the predicted scalings.

Exact Gaussian Process (GP) regression has O(N^3) runtime for data size N, making it intractable for large N. Many algorithms for improving GP scaling approximate the covariance with lower rank matrices. Other work has exploited structure inherent in particular covariance functions, including GPs with implied Markov structure, and equispaced inputs (both enable O(N) runtime). However, these GP advances have not been extended to the multidimensional input setting, despite the preponderance of multidimensional applications. This paper introduces and tests novel extensions of structured GPs to multidimensional inputs. We present new methods for additive GPs, showing a novel connection between the classic backfitting method and the Bayesian framework. To achieve optimal accuracy-complexity tradeoff, we extend this model with a novel variant of projection pursuit regression. Our primary result -- projection pursuit Gaussian Process Regression -- shows orders of magnitude speedup while preserving high accuracy. The natural second and third steps include non-Gaussian observations and higher dimensional equispaced grid methods. We introduce novel techniques to address both of these necessary directions. We thoroughly illustrate the power of these three advances on several datasets, achieving close performance to the naive Full GP at orders of magnitude less cost.

Auto-Associative models cover a large class of methods used in data analysis. In this paper, we describe the generals properties of these models when the projection component is linear and we propose and test an easy to implement Probabilistic Semi-Linear Auto- Associative model in a Gaussian setting. We show it is a generalization of the PCA model to the semi-linear case. Numerical experiments on simulated datasets and a real astronomical application highlight the interest of this approach

We introduce a method for constructing skills capable of solving tasks drawn from a distribution of parameterized reinforcement learning problems. The method draws example tasks from a distribution of interest and uses the corresponding learned policies to estimate the topology of the lower-dimensional piecewise-smooth manifold on which the skill policies lie. This manifold models how policy parameters change as task parameters vary. The method identifies the number of charts that compose the manifold and then applies non-linear regression in each chart to construct a parameterized skill by predicting policy parameters from task parameters. We evaluate our method on an underactuated simulated robotic arm tasked with learning to accurately throw darts at a parameterized target location.

We develop a highly scalable optimization method called "hierarchical group-thresholding" for solving a multi-task regression model with complex structured sparsity constraints on both input and output spaces. Despite the recent emergence of several efficient optimization algorithms for tackling complex sparsity-inducing regularizers, true scalability in practical high-dimensional problems where a huge amount (e.g., millions) of sparsity patterns need to be enforced remains an open challenge, because all existing algorithms must deal with ALL such patterns exhaustively in every iteration, which is computationally prohibitive. Our proposed algorithm addresses the scalability problem by screening out multiple groups of coefficients simultaneously and systematically. We employ a hierarchical tree representation of group constraints to accelerate the process of removing irrelevant constraints by taking advantage of the inclusion relationships between group sparsities, thereby avoiding dealing with all constraints in every optimization step, and necessitating optimization operation only on a small number of outstanding coefficients. In our experiments, we demonstrate the efficiency of our method on simulation datasets, and in an application of detecting genetic variants associated with gene expression traits.

A vast amount of textual web streams is influenced by events or phenomena emerging in the real world. The social web forms an excellent modern paradigm, where unstructured user generated content is published on a regular basis and in most occasions is freely distributed. The present Ph.D. Thesis deals with the problem of inferring information - or patterns in general - about events emerging in real life based on the contents of this textual stream. We show that it is possible to extract valuable information about social phenomena, such as an epidemic or even rainfall rates, by automatic analysis of the content published in Social Media, and in particular Twitter, using Statistical Machine Learning methods. An important intermediate task regards the formation and identification of features which characterise a target event; we select and use those textual features in several linear, non-linear and hybrid inference approaches achieving a significantly good performance in terms of the applied loss function. By examining further this rich data set, we also propose methods for extracting various types of mood signals revealing how affective norms - at least within the social web's population - evolve during the day and how significant events emerging in the real world are influencing them. Lastly, we present some preliminary findings showing several spatiotemporal characteristics of this textual information as well as the potential of using it to tackle tasks such as the prediction of voting intentions.

Many statistical $M$-estimators are based on convex optimization problems formed by the combination of a data-dependent loss function with a norm-based regularizer. We analyze the convergence rates of projected gradient and composite gradient methods for solving such problems, working within a high-dimensional framework that allows the data dimension $\pdim$ to grow with (and possibly exceed) the sample size $\numobs$. This high-dimensional structure precludes the usual global assumptions---namely, strong convexity and smoothness conditions---that underlie much of classical optimization analysis. We define appropriately restricted versions of these conditions, and show that they are satisfied with high probability for various statistical models. Under these conditions, our theory guarantees that projected gradient descent has a globally geometric rate of convergence up to the \emph{statistical precision} of the model, meaning the typical distance between the true unknown parameter $\theta^*$ and an optimal solution $\hat{\theta}$. This result is substantially sharper than previous convergence results, which yielded sublinear convergence, or linear convergence only up to the noise level. Our analysis applies to a wide range of $M$-estimators and statistical models, including sparse linear regression using Lasso ($\ell_1$-regularized regression); group Lasso for block sparsity; log-linear models with regularization; low-rank matrix recovery using nuclear norm regularization; and matrix decomposition. Overall, our analysis reveals interesting connections between statistical precision and computational efficiency in high-dimensional estimation.

We demonstrate an equivalence between reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) embeddings of conditional distributions and vector-valued regressors. This connection introduces a natural regularized loss function which the RKHS embeddings minimise, providing an intuitive understanding of the embeddings and a justification for their use. Furthermore, the equivalence allows the application of vector-valued regression methods and results to the problem of learning conditional distributions. Using this link we derive a sparse version of the embedding by considering alternative formulations. Further, by applying convergence results for vector-valued regression to the embedding problem we derive minimax convergence rates which are O(\log(n)/n) -- compared to current state of the art rates of O(n^{-1/4}) -- and are valid under milder and more intuitive assumptions. These minimax upper rates coincide with lower rates up to a logarithmic factor, showing that the embedding method achieves nearly optimal rates. We study our sparse embedding algorithm in a reinforcement learning task where the algorithm shows significant improvement in sparsity over an incomplete Cholesky decomposition.

Data sparsity is an emerging real-world problem observed in a various domains ranging from sensor networks to medical diagnosis. Consecutively, numerous machine learning methods were modeled to treat missing values. Nevertheless, sparsity, defined as missing segments, has not been thoroughly investigated in the context of time series classification. We propose a novel principle for classifying time series, which in contrast to existing approaches, avoids reconstructing the missing segments in time series and operates solely on the observed ones. Based on the proposed principle, we develop a method that prevents adding noise that incurs during the reconstruction of the original time series. Ourmethod adapts supervised matrix factorization by projecting time series in a latent space through stochasticlearning. Furthermore the projected data is built in a supervised fashion via a logistic regression. Abundant experiments on a large collection of 37 data sets demonstrate the superiority of our method, which in the majority of cases outperforms a set of baselines that do not follow our proposed principle.

Personal names are important and common information in many data sources, ranging from social networks and news articles to patient records and scientific documents.They are often used as queries for retrieving records and also as key information for linking documents from multiple sources. Matching personal names can be challenging due to variations in spelling and various formatting of names. While many approximated name matching techniques have been proposed, most are generic string-matching algorithms. Unlike other types of proper names, personal names are highly cultural. Many ethnicities have their own unique naming systems and identifiable characteristics. In this paper we explore such relationships between ethnicities and personal names to improve the name matching performance. First, we propose a name-ethnicity classifier based on the multinomial logistic regression. Our model can effectively identify name-ethnicity from personal names in Wikipedia, which we use to define name-ethnicity, to within 85\% accuracy.Next, we propose a novel alignment-based name matching algorithm, based on Smith–Waterman algorithm and logistic regression.Different name matching models are then trained for different name-ethnicity groups.Our preliminary experimental result on DBLP's disambiguated author dataset yields a performance of 99\% precision and 89\% recall.Surprisingly, textual features carry more weight than phonetic ones in name-ethnicity classification.