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 Regression


Regularized M-estimators with nonconvexity: Statistical and algorithmic theory for local optima

Neural Information Processing Systems

We establish theoretical results concerning all local optima of various regularized M-estimators, where both loss and penalty functions are allowed to be nonconvex. Our results show that as long as the loss function satisfies restricted strong convexity and the penalty function satisfies suitable regularity conditions, any local optimum of the composite objective function lies within statistical precision of the true parameter vector. Our theory covers a broad class of nonconvex objective functions, including corrected versions of the Lasso for errors-in-variables linear models; regression in generalized linear models using nonconvex regularizers such as SCAD and MCP; and graph and inverse covariance matrix estimation. On the optimization side, we show that a simple adaptation of composite gradient descent may be used to compute a global optimum up to the statistical precision epsilon in log(1/epsilon) iterations, which is the fastest possible rate of any first-order method. We provide a variety of simulations to illustrate the sharpness of our theoretical predictions.


Model Selection for High-Dimensional Regression under the Generalized Irrepresentability Condition

Neural Information Processing Systems

In the high-dimensional regression model a response variable is linearly related to $p$ covariates, but the sample size $n$ is smaller than $p$. We assume that only a small subset of covariates is `active' (i.e., the corresponding coefficients are non-zero), and consider the model-selection problem of identifying the active covariates. A popular approach is to estimate the regression coefficients through the Lasso ($\ell_1$-regularized least squares). This is known to correctly identify the active set only if the irrelevant covariates are roughly orthogonal to the relevant ones, as quantified through the so called `irrepresentability' condition. In this paper we study the `Gauss-Lasso' selector, a simple two-stage method that first solves the Lasso, and then performs ordinary least squares restricted to the Lasso active set. We formulate `generalized irrepresentability condition' (GIC), an assumption that is substantially weaker than irrepresentability. We prove that, under GIC, the Gauss-Lasso correctly recovers the active set.


Lasso Screening Rules via Dual Polytope Projection

Neural Information Processing Systems

Lasso is a widely used regression technique to find sparse representations. When the dimension of the feature space and the number of samples are extremely large, solving the Lasso problem remains challenging. To improve the efficiency of solving large-scale Lasso problems, El Ghaoui and his colleagues have proposed the SAFE rules which are able to quickly identify the inactive predictors, i.e., predictors that have $0$ components in the solution vector. Then, the inactive predictors or features can be removed from the optimization problem to reduce its scale. By transforming the standard Lasso to its dual form, it can be shown that the inactive predictors include the set of inactive constraints on the optimal dual solution. In this paper, we propose an efficient and effective screening rule via Dual Polytope Projections (DPP), which is mainly based on the uniqueness and nonexpansiveness of the optimal dual solution due to the fact that the feasible set in the dual space is a convex and closed polytope. Moreover, we show that our screening rule can be extended to identify inactive groups in group Lasso. To the best of our knowledge, there is currently no exact" screening rule for group Lasso. We have evaluated our screening rule using many real data sets. Results show that our rule is more effective to identify inactive predictors than existing state-of-the-art screening rules for Lasso."


A Fused Elastic Net Logistic Regression Model for Multi-Task Binary Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Multi-task learning has shown to significantly enhance the performance of multiple related learning tasks in a variety of situations. We present the fused logistic regression, a sparse multi-task learning approach for binary classification. Specifically, we introduce sparsity inducing penalties over parameter differences of related logistic regression models to encode similarity across related tasks. The resulting joint learning task is cast into a form that lends itself to be efficiently optimized with a recursive variant of the alternating direction method of multipliers. We show results on synthetic data and describe the regime of settings where our multi-task approach achieves significant improvements over the single task learning approach and discuss the implications on applying the fused logistic regression in different real world settings.


Assessment of Customer Credit through Combined Clustering of Artificial Neural Networks, Genetics Algorithm and Bayesian Probabilities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Today, with respect to the increasing growth of demand to get credit from the customers of banks and finance and credit institutions, using an effective and efficient method to decrease the risk of non-repayment of credit given is very necessary. Assessment of customers' credit is one of the most important and the most essential duties of banks and institutions, and if an error occurs in this field, it would leads to the great losses for banks and institutions. Thus, using the predicting computer systems has been significantly progressed in recent decades. The data that are provided to the credit institutions' managers help them to make a straight decision for giving the credit or not-giving it. In this paper, we will assess the customer credit through a combined classification using artificial neural networks, genetics algorithm and Bayesian probabilities simultaneously, and the results obtained from three methods mentioned above would be used to achieve an appropriate and final result. We use the K_folds cross validation test in order to assess the method and finally, we compare the proposed method with the methods such as Clustering-Launched Classification (CLC), Support Vector Machine (SVM) as well as GA+SVM where the genetics algorithm has been used to improve them.


A Comprehensive Approach to Universal Piecewise Nonlinear Regression Based on Trees

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we investigate adaptive nonlinear regression and introduce tree based piecewise linear regression algorithms that are highly efficient and provide significantly improved performance with guaranteed upper bounds in an individual sequence manner. We use a tree notion in order to partition the space of regressors in a nested structure. The introduced algorithms adapt not only their regression functions but also the complete tree structure while achieving the performance of the "best" linear mixture of a doubly exponential number of partitions, with a computational complexity only polynomial in the number of nodes of the tree. While constructing these algorithms, we also avoid using any artificial "weighting" of models (with highly data dependent parameters) and, instead, directly minimize the final regression error, which is the ultimate performance goal. The introduced methods are generic such that they can readily incorporate different tree construction methods such as random trees in their framework and can use different regressor or partitioning functions as demonstrated in the paper.


A hidden process regression model for functional data description. Application to curve discrimination

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A new approach for functional data description is proposed in this paper. It consists of a regression model with a discrete hidden logistic process which is adapted for modeling curves with abrupt or smooth regime changes. The model parameters are estimated in a maximum likelihood framework through a dedicated Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. From the proposed generative model, a curve discrimination rule is derived using the Maximum A Posteriori rule. The proposed model is evaluated using simulated curves and real world curves acquired during railway switch operations, by performing comparisons with the piecewise regression approach in terms of curve modeling and classification.


Time series modeling by a regression approach based on a latent process

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Time series are used in many domains including finance, engineering, economics and bioinformatics generally to represent the change of a measurement over time. Modeling techniques may then be used to give a synthetic representation of such data. A new approach for time series modeling is proposed in this paper. It consists of a regression model incorporating a discrete hidden logistic process allowing for activating smoothly or abruptly different polynomial regression models. The model parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method performed by a dedicated Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The M step of the EM algorithm uses a multi-class Iterative Reweighted Least-Squares (IRLS) algorithm to estimate the hidden process parameters. To evaluate the proposed approach, an experimental study on simulated data and real world data was performed using two alternative approaches: a heteroskedastic piecewise regression model using a global optimization algorithm based on dynamic programming, and a Hidden Markov Regression Model whose parameters are estimated by the Baum-Welch algorithm. Finally, in the context of the remote monitoring of components of the French railway infrastructure, and more particularly the switch mechanism, the proposed approach has been applied to modeling and classifying time series representing the condition measurements acquired during switch operations.


Supervised learning of a regression model based on latent process. Application to the estimation of fuel cell life time

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper describes a pattern recognition approach aiming to estimate fuel cell duration time from electrochemical impedance spectroscopy measurements. It consists in first extracting features from both real and imaginary parts of the impedance spectrum. A parametric model is considered in the case of the real part, whereas regression model with latent variables is used in the latter case. Then, a linear regression model using different subsets of extracted features is used fo r the estimation of fuel cell time duration. The performances of the proposed approach are evaluated on experimental data set to show its feasibility. This could lead to interesting perspectives for predictive maintenance policy of fuel cell.


A regression model with a hidden logistic process for signal parametrization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A new approach for signal parametrization, which consists of a specific regression model incorporating a discrete hidden logistic process, is proposed. The model parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method performed by a dedicated Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The parameters of the hidden logistic process, in the inner loop of the EM algorithm, are estimated using a multi-class Iterative Reweighted Least-Squares (IRLS) algorithm. An experimental study using simulated and real data reveals good performances of the proposed approach.