Logistic regression models with $n$ observations and $q$ linearly-independent covariates are shown to have Fisher information volumes which are bounded below by $\pi^q$ and above by ${n \choose q} \pi^q$. This is proved with a novel generalization of the classical theorems of Pythagoras and de Gua, which is of independent interest. The finding that the volume is always finite is new, and it implies that the volume can be directly interpreted as a measure of model complexity. The volume is shown to be a continuous function of the design matrix $X$ at generic $X$, but to be discontinuous in general. This means that models with sparse design matrices can be significantly less complex than nearby models, so the resulting model-selection criterion prefers sparse models. This is analogous to the way that $\ell^1$-regularisation tends to prefer sparse model fits, though in our case this behaviour arises spontaneously from general principles. Lastly, an unusual topological duality is shown to exist between the ideal boundaries of the natural and expectation parameter spaces of logistic regression models.

Lasso is a widely used regression technique to find sparse representations. When the dimension of the feature space and the number of samples are extremely large, solving the Lasso problem remains challenging. To improve the efficiency of solving large-scale Lasso problems, El Ghaoui and his colleagues have proposed the SAFE rules which are able to quickly identify the inactive predictors, i.e., predictors that have $0$ components in the solution vector. Then, the inactive predictors or features can be removed from the optimization problem to reduce its scale. By transforming the standard Lasso to its dual form, it can be shown that the inactive predictors include the set of inactive constraints on the optimal dual solution. In this paper, we propose an efficient and effective screening rule via Dual Polytope Projections (DPP), which is mainly based on the uniqueness and nonexpansiveness of the optimal dual solution due to the fact that the feasible set in the dual space is a convex and closed polytope. Moreover, we show that our screening rule can be extended to identify inactive groups in group Lasso. To the best of our knowledge, there is currently no "exact" screening rule for group Lasso. We have evaluated our screening rule using synthetic and real data sets. Results show that our rule is more effective in identifying inactive predictors than existing state-of-the-art screening rules for Lasso.

The increasing importance of renewable energy, especially solar and wind power, has led to new forces in the formation of electricity prices. Hence, this paper introduces an econometric model for the hourly time series of electricity prices of the European Power Exchange (EPEX) which incorporates specific features like renewable energy. The model consists of several sophisticated and established approaches and can be regarded as a periodic VAR-TARCH with wind power, solar power, and load as influences on the time series. It is able to map the distinct and well-known features of electricity prices in Germany. An efficient iteratively reweighted lasso approach is used for the estimation. Moreover, it is shown that several existing models are outperformed by the procedure developed in this paper.

Regularized M-estimators are used in diverse areas of science and engineering to fit high-dimensional models with some low-dimensional structure. Usually the low-dimensional structure is encoded by the presence of the (unknown) parameters in some low-dimensional model subspace. In such settings, it is desirable for estimates of the model parameters to be \emph{model selection consistent}: the estimates also fall in the model subspace. We develop a general framework for establishing consistency and model selection consistency of regularized M-estimators and show how it applies to some special cases of interest in statistical learning. Our analysis identifies two key properties of regularized M-estimators, referred to as geometric decomposability and irrepresentability, that ensure the estimators are consistent and model selection consistent.

In this paper, we consider a supervised learning setting where side knowledge is provided about the labels of unlabeled examples. The side knowledge has the effect of reducing the hypothesis space, leading to tighter generalization bounds, and thus possibly better generalization. We consider several types of side knowledge, the first leading to linear and polygonal constraints on the hypothesis space, the second leading to quadratic constraints, and the last leading to conic constraints. We show how different types of domain knowledge can lead directly to these kinds of side knowledge. We prove bounds on complexity measures of the hypothesis space for quadratic and conic side knowledge, and show that these bounds are tight in a specific sense for the quadratic case.

For classification problems with significant class imbalance, subsampling can reduce computational costs at the price of inflated variance in estimating model parameters. We propose a method for subsampling efficiently for logistic regression by adjusting the class balance locally in feature space via an accept-reject scheme. Our method generalizes standard case-control sampling, using a pilot estimate to preferentially select examples whose responses are conditionally rare given their features. The biased subsampling is corrected by a post-hoc analytic adjustment to the parameters. The method is simple and requires one parallelizable scan over the full data set. Standard case-control sampling is inconsistent under model misspecification for the population risk-minimizing coefficients $\theta^*$. By contrast, our estimator is consistent for $\theta^*$ provided that the pilot estimate is. Moreover, under correct specification and with a consistent, independent pilot estimate, our estimator has exactly twice the asymptotic variance of the full-sample MLE - even if the selected subsample comprises a miniscule fraction of the full data set, as happens when the original data are severely imbalanced. The factor of two improves to $1+\frac{1}{c}$ if we multiply the baseline acceptance probabilities by $c>1$ (and weight points with acceptance probability greater than 1), taking roughly $\frac{1+c}{2}$ times as many data points into the subsample. Experiments on simulated and real data show that our method can substantially outperform standard case-control subsampling.

This paper studies ordered weighted L1 (OWL) norm regularization for sparse estimation problems with strongly correlated variables. We prove sufficient conditions for clustering based on the correlation/colinearity of variables using the OWL norm, of which the so-called OSCAR is a particular case. Our results extend previous ones for OSCAR in several ways: for the squared error loss, our conditions hold for the more general OWL norm and under weaker assumptions; we also establish clustering conditions for the absolute error loss, which is, as far as we know, a novel result. Furthermore, we characterize the statistical performance of OWL norm regularization for generative models in which certain clusters of regression variables are strongly (even perfectly) correlated, but variables in different clusters are uncorrelated. We show that if the true p-dimensional signal generating the data involves only s of the clusters, then O(s log p) samples suffice to accurately estimate the signal, regardless of the number of coefficients within the clusters. The estimation of s-sparse signals with completely independent variables requires just as many measurements. In other words, using the OWL we pay no price (in terms of the number of measurements) for the presence of strongly correlated variables.

Classification with a sparsity constraint on the solution plays a central role in many high dimensional machine learning applications. In some cases, the features can be grouped together so that entire subsets of features can be selected or not selected. In many applications, however, this can be too restrictive. In this paper, we are interested in a less restrictive form of structured sparse feature selection: we assume that while features can be grouped according to some notion of similarity, not all features in a group need be selected for the task at hand. When the groups are comprised of disjoint sets of features, this is sometimes referred to as the "sparse group" lasso, and it allows for working with a richer class of models than traditional group lasso methods. Our framework generalizes conventional sparse group lasso further by allowing for overlapping groups, an additional flexiblity needed in many applications and one that presents further challenges. The main contribution of this paper is a new procedure called Sparse Overlapping Group (SOG) lasso, a convex optimization program that automatically selects similar features for classification in high dimensions. We establish model selection error bounds for SOGlasso classification problems under a fairly general setting. In particular, the error bounds are the first such results for classification using the sparse group lasso. Furthermore, the general SOGlasso bound specializes to results for the lasso and the group lasso, some known and some new. The SOGlasso is motivated by multi-subject fMRI studies in which functional activity is classified using brain voxels as features, source localization problems in Magnetoencephalography (MEG), and analyzing gene activation patterns in microarray data analysis. Experiments with real and synthetic data demonstrate the advantages of SOGlasso compared to the lasso and group lasso.

Subjective Well-being(SWB), which refers to how people experience the quality of their lives, is of great use to public policy-makers as well as economic, sociological research, etc. Traditionally, the measurement of SWB relies on time-consuming and costly self-report questionnaires. Nowadays, people are motivated to share their experiences and feelings on social media, so we propose to sense SWB from the vast user generated data on social media. By utilizing 1785 users' social media data with SWB labels, we train machine learning models that are able to "sense" individual SWB from users' social media. Our model, which attains the state-by-art prediction accuracy, can then be used to identify SWB of large population of social media users in time with very low cost.

A novel extrapolation method is proposed for longitudinal forecasting. A hierarchical Gaussian process model is used to combine nonlinear population change and individual memory of the past to make prediction. The prediction error is minimized through the hierarchical design. The method is further extended to joint modeling of continuous measurements and survival events. The baseline hazard, covariate and joint effects are conveniently modeled in this hierarchical structure. The estimation and inference are implemented in fully Bayesian framework using the objective and shrinkage priors. In simulation studies, this model shows robustness in latent estimation, correlation detection and high accuracy in forecasting. The model is illustrated with medical monitoring data from cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. Estimation and forecasts are obtained in the measurement of lung function and records of acute respiratory events. Keyword: Extrapolation, Joint Model, Longitudinal Model, Hierarchical Gaussian Process, Cystic Fibrosis, Medical Monitoring