We consider the problem of fitting a linear model to data held by individuals who are concerned about their privacy. Incentivizing most players to truthfully report their data to the analyst constrains our design to mechanisms that provide a privacy guarantee to the participants; we use differential privacy to model individuals' privacy losses. This immediately poses a problem, as differentially private computation of a linear model necessarily produces a biased estimation, and existing approaches to design mechanisms to elicit data from privacy-sensitive individuals do not generalize well to biased estimators. We overcome this challenge through an appropriate design of the computation and payment scheme.

We propose an efficient nonparametric strategy for learning a message operator in expectation propagation (EP), which takes as input the set of incoming messages to a factor node, and produces an outgoing message as output. This learned operator replaces the multivariate integral required in classical EP, which may not have an analytic expression. We use kernel-based regression, which is trained on a set of probability distributions representing the incoming messages, and the associated outgoing messages. The kernel approach has two main advantages: first, it is fast, as it is implemented using a novel two-layer random feature representation of the input message distributions; second, it has principled uncertainty estimates, and can be cheaply updated online, meaning it can request and incorporate new training data when it encounters inputs on which it is uncertain. In experiments, our approach is able to solve learning problems where a single message operator is required for multiple, substantially different data sets (logistic regression for a variety of classification problems), where it is essential to accurately assess uncertainty and to efficiently and robustly update the message operator.

Bayesian predictive inference analyzes a dataset to make predictions about new observations. When a model does not match the data, predictive accuracy suffers. We develop population empirical Bayes (POP-EB), a hierarchical framework that explicitly models the empirical population distribution as part of Bayesian analysis. We introduce a new concept, the latent dataset, as a hierarchical variable and set the empirical population as its prior. This leads to a new predictive density that mitigates model mismatch. We efficiently apply this method to complex models by proposing a stochastic variational inference algorithm, called bumping variational inference (BUMP-VI). We demonstrate improved predictive accuracy over classical Bayesian inference in three models: a linear regression model of health data, a Bayesian mixture model of natural images, and a latent Dirichlet allocation topic model of scientific documents.

Variable selection is a challenging issue in statistical applications when the number of predictors $p$ far exceeds the number of observations $n$. In this ultra-high dimensional setting, the sure independence screening (SIS) procedure was introduced to significantly reduce the dimensionality by preserving the true model with overwhelming probability, before a refined second stage analysis. However, the aforementioned sure screening property strongly relies on the assumption that the important variables in the model have large marginal correlations with the response, which rarely holds in reality. To overcome this, we propose a novel and simple screening technique called the high-dimensional ordinary least-squares projection (HOLP). We show that HOLP possesses the sure screening property and gives consistent variable selection without the strong correlation assumption, and has a low computational complexity. A ridge type HOLP procedure is also discussed. Simulation study shows that HOLP performs competitively compared to many other marginal correlation based methods. An application to a mammalian eye disease data illustrates the attractiveness of HOLP.

This paper is concerned with the problems of interaction screening and nonlinear classification in a high-dimensional setting. We propose a two-step procedure, IIS-SQDA, where in the first step an innovated interaction screening (IIS) approach based on transforming the original $p$-dimensional feature vector is proposed, and in the second step a sparse quadratic discriminant analysis (SQDA) is proposed for further selecting important interactions and main effects and simultaneously conducting classification. Our IIS approach screens important interactions by examining only $p$ features instead of all two-way interactions of order $O(p^2)$. Our theory shows that the proposed method enjoys sure screening property in interaction selection in the high-dimensional setting of $p$ growing exponentially with the sample size. In the selection and classification step, we establish a sparse inequality on the estimated coefficient vector for QDA and prove that the classification error of our procedure can be upper-bounded by the oracle classification error plus some smaller order term. Extensive simulation studies and real data analysis show that our proposal compares favorably with existing methods in interaction selection and high-dimensional classification.

The Gaussian graphical model, a popular paradigm for studying relationship among variables in a wide range of applications, has attracted great attention in recent years. This paper considers a fundamental question: When is it possible to estimate low-dimensional parameters at parametric square-root rate in a large Gaussian graphical model? A novel regression approach is proposed to obtain asymptotically efficient estimation of each entry of a precision matrix under a sparseness condition relative to the sample size. When the precision matrix is not sufficiently sparse, or equivalently the sample size is not sufficiently large, a lower bound is established to show that it is no longer possible to achieve the parametric rate in the estimation of each entry. This lower bound result, which provides an answer to the delicate sample size question, is established with a novel construction of a subset of sparse precision matrices in an application of Le Cam's lemma. Moreover, the proposed estimator is proven to have optimal convergence rate when the parametric rate cannot be achieved, under a minimal sample requirement. The proposed estimator is applied to test the presence of an edge in the Gaussian graphical model or to recover the support of the entire model, to obtain adaptive rate-optimal estimation of the entire precision matrix as measured by the matrix $\ell_q$ operator norm and to make inference in latent variables in the graphical model. All of this is achieved under a sparsity condition on the precision matrix and a side condition on the range of its spectrum. This significantly relaxes the commonly imposed uniform signal strength condition on the precision matrix, irrepresentability condition on the Hessian tensor operator of the covariance matrix or the $\ell_1$ constraint on the precision matrix. Numerical results confirm our theoretical findings. The ROC curve of the proposed algorithm, Asymptotic Normal Thresholding (ANT), for support recovery significantly outperforms that of the popular GLasso algorithm.

This paper examines the use of a residual bootstrap for bias correction in machine learning regression methods. Accounting for bias is an important obstacle in recent efforts to develop statistical inference for machine learning methods. We demonstrate empirically that the proposed bootstrap bias correction can lead to substantial improvements in both bias and predictive accuracy. In the context of ensembles of trees, we show that this correction can be approximated at only double the cost of training the original ensemble without introducing additional variance. Our method is shown to improve test-set accuracy over random forests by up to 70\% on example problems from the UCI repository.

In this paper we develop proximal methods for statistical learning. Proximal point algorithms are useful in statistics and machine learning for obtaining optimization solutions for composite functions. Our approach exploits closed-form solutions of proximal operators and envelope representations based on the Moreau, Forward-Backward, Douglas-Rachford and Half-Quadratic envelopes. Envelope representations lead to novel proximal algorithms for statistical optimisation of composite objective functions which include both non-smooth and non-convex objectives. We illustrate our methodology with regularized Logistic and Poisson regression and non-convex bridge penalties with a fused lasso norm. We provide a discussion of convergence of non-descent algorithms with acceleration and for non-convex functions. Finally, we provide directions for future research.

We study the computational complexity of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression under sparsity constraints. We first show that a Bayesian approach can achieve variable-selection consistency under relatively mild conditions on the design matrix. We then demonstrate that the statistical criterion of posterior concentration need not imply the computational desideratum of rapid mixing of the MCMC algorithm. By introducing a truncated sparsity prior for variable selection, we provide a set of conditions that guarantee both variable-selection consistency and rapid mixing of a particular Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The mixing time is linear in the number of covariates up to a logarithmic factor. Our proof controls the spectral gap of the Markov chain by constructing a canonical path ensemble that is inspired by the steps taken by greedy algorithms for variable selection.

Lasso is a seminal contribution to high-dimensional statistics, but it hinges on a tuning parameter that is difficult to calibrate in practice. A partial remedy for this problem is Square-Root Lasso, because it inherently calibrates to the noise variance. However, Square-Root Lasso still requires the calibration of a tuning parameter to all other aspects of the model. In this study, we introduce TREX, an alternative to Lasso with an inherent calibration to all aspects of the model. This adaptation to the entire model renders TREX an estimator that does not require any calibration of tuning parameters. We show that TREX can outperform cross-validated Lasso in terms of variable selection and computational efficiency. We also introduce a bootstrapped version of TREX that can further improve variable selection. We illustrate the promising performance of TREX both on synthetic data and on a recent high-dimensional biological data set that considers riboflavin production in B. subtilis.