This paper examines the role and efficiency of the non-convex loss functions for binary classification problems. In particular, we investigate how to design a simple and effective boosting algorithm that is robust to the outliers in the data. The analysis of the role of a particular non-convex loss for prediction accuracy varies depending on the diminishing tail properties of the gradient of the loss -- the ability of the loss to efficiently adapt to the outlying data, the local convex properties of the loss and the proportion of the contaminated data. In order to use these properties efficiently, we propose a new family of non-convex losses named $\gamma$-robust losses. Moreover, we present a new boosting framework, {\it Arch Boost}, designed for augmenting the existing work such that its corresponding classification algorithm is significantly more adaptable to the unknown data contamination. Along with the Arch Boosting framework, the non-convex losses lead to the new class of boosting algorithms, named adaptive, robust, boosting (ARB). Furthermore, we present theoretical examples that demonstrate the robustness properties of the proposed algorithms. In particular, we develop a new breakdown point analysis and a new influence function analysis that demonstrate gains in robustness. Moreover, we present new theoretical results, based only on local curvatures, which may be used to establish statistical and optimization properties of the proposed Arch boosting algorithms with highly non-convex loss functions. Extensive numerical calculations are used to illustrate these theoretical properties and reveal advantages over the existing boosting methods when data exhibits a number of outliers.

We consider the task of fitting a regression model involving interactions among a potentially large set of covariates, in which we wish to enforce strong heredity. We propose FAMILY, a very general framework for this task. Our proposal is a generalization of several existing methods, such as VANISH [Radchenko and James, 2010], hierNet [Bien et al., 2013], the all-pairs lasso, and the lasso using only main effects. It can be formulated as the solution to a convex optimization problem, which we solve using an efficient alternating directions method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm. This algorithm has guaranteed convergence to the global optimum, can be easily specialized to any convex penalty function of interest, and allows for a straightforward extension to the setting of generalized linear models. We derive an unbiased estimator of the degrees of freedom of FAMILY, and explore its performance in a simulation study and on an HIV sequence data set.

This paper describes how to convert a machine learning problem into a series of map-reduce tasks. We study logistic regression algorithm. In logistic regression algorithm, it is assumed that samples are independent and each sample is assigned a probability. Parameters are obtained by maxmizing the product of all sample probabilities. Rapid expansion of training samples brings challenges to machine learning method. Training samples are so many that they can be only stored in distributed file system and driven by map-reduce style programs. The main step of logistic regression is inference. According to map-reduce spirit, each sample makes inference through a separate map procedure. But the premise of inference is that the map procedure holds parameters for all features in the sample. In this paper, we propose Distributed Parameter Map-Reduce, in which not only samples, but also parameters are distributed in nodes of distributed filesystem. Through a series of map-reduce tasks, we assign each sample parameters for its features, make inference for the sample and update paramters of the model. The above processes are excuted looply until convergence. We test the proposed algorithm in actual hadoop production environment. Experiments show that the acceleration of the algorithm is in linear relationship with the number of cluster nodes.

We consider the problem of distributed multi-task learning, where each machine learns a separate, but related, task. Specifically, each machine learns a linear predictor in high-dimensional space,where all tasks share the same small support. We present a communication-efficient estimator based on the debiased lasso and show that it is comparable with the optimal centralized method.

Slow feature analysis (SFA) is an unsupervised learning algorithm that extracts slowly varying features from a time series. Graph-based SFA (GSFA) is a supervised extension that can solve regression problems if followed by a post-processing regression algorithm. A training graph specifies arbitrary connections between the training samples. The connections in current graphs, however, only depend on the rank of the involved labels. Exploiting the exact label values makes further improvements in estimation accuracy possible. In this article, we propose the exact label learning (ELL) method to create a graph that codes the desired label explicitly, so that GSFA is able to extract a normalized version of it directly. The ELL method is used for three tasks: (1) We estimate gender from artificial images of human faces (regression) and show the advantage of coding additional labels, particularly skin color. (2) We analyze two existing graphs for regression. (3) We extract compact discriminative features to classify traffic sign images. When the number of output features is limited, a higher classification rate is obtained compared to a graph equivalent to nonlinear Fisher discriminant analysis. The method is versatile, directly supports multiple labels, and provides higher accuracy compared to current graphs for the problems considered.

In this paper an approach based on expectation maximization (EM) clustering to find the climate regions and a support vector machine to build a predictive model for each of these regions is proposed. To minimize the biases in the estimations a ten cross fold validation is adopted both for obtaining clusters and building the predictive models. The EM clustering could identify all the zones as per the Koppen classification over Indian region. The proposed strategy when employed for predicting temperature has resulted in an RMSE of $1.19$ in the Montane climate region and $0.89$ in the Humid Sub Tropical region as compared to $2.9$ and $0.95$ respectively predicted using k-means and linear regression method.

Ensembles of climate models are commonly used to improve climate predictions and assess the uncertainties associated with them. Weighting the models according to their performances holds the promise of further improving their predictions. Here, we use an ensemble of decadal climate predictions to demonstrate the ability of sequential learning algorithms (SLAs) to reduce the forecast errors and reduce the uncertainties. Three different SLAs are considered, and their performances are compared with those of an equally weighted ensemble, a linear regression and the climatology. Predictions of four different variables--the surface temperature, the zonal and meridional wind, and pressure--are considered. The spatial distributions of the performances are presented, and the statistical significance of the improvements achieved by the SLAs is tested. Based on the performances of the SLAs, we propose one to be highly suitable for the improvement of decadal climate predictions.

Real-time estimation of destination and travel time for taxis is of great importance for existing electronic dispatch systems. We present an approach based on trip matching and ensemble learning, in which we leverage the patterns observed in a dataset of roughly 1.7 million taxi journeys to predict the corresponding final destination and travel time for ongoing taxi trips, as a solution for the ECML/PKDD Discovery Challenge 2015 competition. The results of our empirical evaluation show that our approach is effective and very robust, which led our team -- BlueTaxi -- to the 3rd and 7th position of the final rankings for the trip time and destination prediction tasks, respectively. Given the fact that the final rankings were computed using a very small test set (with only 320 trips) we believe that our approach is one of the most robust solutions for the challenge based on the consistency of our good results across the test sets.

This work develops formal statistical inference procedures for machine learning ensemble methods. Ensemble methods based on bootstrapping, such as bagging and random forests, have improved the predictive accuracy of individual trees, but fail to provide a framework in which distributional results can be easily determined. Instead of aggregating full bootstrap samples, we consider predicting by averaging over trees built on subsamples of the training set and demonstrate that the resulting estimator takes the form of a U-statistic. As such, predictions for individual feature vectors are asymptotically normal, allowing for confidence intervals to accompany predictions. In practice, a subset of subsamples is used for computational speed; here our estimators take the form of incomplete U-statistics and equivalent results are derived. We further demonstrate that this setup provides a framework for testing the significance of features. Moreover, the internal estimation method we develop allows us to estimate the variance parameters and perform these inference procedures at no additional computational cost. Simulations and illustrations on a real dataset are provided.

Propagating input uncertainty through non-linear Gaussian process (GP) mappings is intractable. This hinders the task of training GPs using uncertain and partially observed inputs. In this paper we refer to this task as "semi-described learning". We then introduce a GP framework that solves both, the semi-described and the semi-supervised learning problems (where missing values occur in the outputs). Auto-regressive state space simulation is also recognised as a special case of semi-described learning. To achieve our goal we develop variational methods for handling semi-described inputs in GPs, and couple them with algorithms that allow for imputing the missing values while treating the uncertainty in a principled, Bayesian manner. Extensive experiments on simulated and real-world data study the problems of iterative forecasting and regression/classification with missing values. The results suggest that the principled propagation of uncertainty stemming from our framework can significantly improve performance in these tasks.