Real data often contain anomalous cases, also known as outliers. These may spoil the resulting analysis but they may also contain valuable information. In either case, the ability to detect such anomalies is essential. A useful tool for this purpose is robust statistics, which aims to detect the outliers by first fitting the majority of the data and then flagging data points that deviate from it. We present an overview of several robust methods and the resulting graphical outlier detection tools. We discuss robust procedures for univariate, low-dimensional, and high-dimensional data, such as estimating location and scatter, linear regression, principal component analysis, classification, clustering, and functional data analysis. Also the challenging new topic of cellwise outliers is introduced.

Here we discuss general applications of statistical models, whether they arise from data science, operations research, engineering, machine learning or statistics. We do not discuss specific algorithms such as decision trees, logistic regression, Bayesian modeling, Markov models, data reduction or feature selection. Instead, I discuss frameworks - each one using its own types of techniques and algorithms - to solve real life problems. Most of the entries below are found in Wikipedia, and I have used a few definitions or extracts from the relevant Wikipedia articles, in addition to personal contributions. Spatial dependency is the co-variation of properties within geographic space: characteristics at proximal locations appear to be correlated, either positively or negatively.

We connect high-dimensional subset selection and submodular maximization. Our results extend the work of Das and Kempe (2011) from the setting of linear regression to arbitrary objective functions. For greedy feature selection, this connection allows us to obtain strong multiplicative performance bounds on several methods without statistical modeling assumptions. We also derive recovery guarantees of this form under standard assumptions. Our work shows that greedy algorithms perform within a constant factor from the best possible subset-selection solution for a broad class of general objective functions. Our methods allow a direct control over the number of obtained features as opposed to regularization parameters that only implicitly control sparsity. Our proof technique uses the concept of weak submodularity initially defined by Das and Kempe. We draw a connection between convex analysis and submodular set function theory which may be of independent interest for other statistical learning applications that have combinatorial structure.

Understanding tie strength in social networks, and the factors that influence it, have received much attention in a myriad of disciplines for decades. Several models incorporating indicators of tie strength have been proposed and used to quantify relationships in social networks, and a standard set of structural network metrics have been applied to predominantly online social media sites to predict tie strength. Here, we introduce the concept of the "social bow tie" framework, a small subgraph of the network that consists of a collection of nodes and ties that surround a tie of interest, forming a topological structure that resembles a bow tie. We also define several intuitive and interpretable metrics that quantify properties of the bow tie. We use random forests and regression models to predict categorical and continuous measures of tie strength from different properties of the bow tie, including nodal attributes. We also investigate what aspects of the bow tie are most predictive of tie strength in two distinct social networks: a collection of 75 rural villages in India and a nationwide call network of European mobile phone users. Our results indicate several of the bow tie metrics are highly predictive of tie strength, and we find the more the social circles of two individuals overlap, the stronger their tie, consistent with previous findings. However, we also find that the more tightly-knit their non-overlapping social circles, the weaker the tie. This new finding complements our current understanding of what drives the strength of ties in social networks.

Machine learning has been used for years to offer image recognition, spam detection, natural speech comprehension, product recommendations, and medical diagnoses. Today, machine learning algorithms can help us enhance cybersecurity, ensure public safety, and improve medical outcomes. Machine learning systems can also make customer service better and automobiles safer. When I started experimenting with machine learning, I wanted to come up with an application that would solve a real-world problem but would not be too complicated to implement. I also wanted to practice working with regression algorithms.

Conventional seismic techniques for detecting the subsurface geologic features are challenged by limited data coverage, computational inefficiency, and subjective human factors. We developed a novel data-driven geological feature detection approach based on pre-stack seismic measurements. Our detection method employs an efficient and accurate machine-learning detection approach to extract useful subsurface geologic features automatically. Specifically, our method is based on kernel ridge regression model. The conventional kernel ridge regression can be computationally prohibited because of the large volume of seismic measurements. We employ a data reduction technique in combination with the conventional kernel ridge regression method to improve the computational efficiency and reduce memory usage. In particular, we utilize a randomized numerical linear algebra technique, named Nystr\"om method, to effectively reduce the dimensionality of the feature space without compromising the information content required for accurate detection. We provide thorough computational cost analysis to show efficiency of our new geological feature detection methods. We further validate the performance of our new subsurface geologic feature detection method using synthetic surface seismic data for 2D acoustic and elastic velocity models. Our numerical examples demonstrate that our new detection method significantly improves the computational efficiency while maintaining comparable accuracy. Interestingly, we show that our method yields a speed-up ratio on the order of $\sim10^2$ to $\sim 10^3$ in a multi-core computational environment.

We consider multi-agent stochastic optimization problems over reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS). In this setting, a network of interconnected agents aims to learn decision functions, i.e., nonlinear statistical models, that are optimal in terms of a global convex functional that aggregates data across the network, with only access to locally and sequentially observed samples. We propose solving this problem by allowing each agent to learn a local regression function while enforcing consensus constraints. We use a penalized variant of functional stochastic gradient descent operating simultaneously with low-dimensional subspace projections. These subspaces are constructed greedily by applying orthogonal matching pursuit to the sequence of kernel dictionaries and weights. By tuning the projection-induced bias, we propose an algorithm that allows for each individual agent to learn, based upon its locally observed data stream and message passing with its neighbors only, a regression function that is close to the globally optimal regression function. That is, we establish that with constant step-size selections agents' functions converge to a neighborhood of the globally optimal one while satisfying the consensus constraints as the penalty parameter is increased. Moreover, the complexity of the learned regression functions is guaranteed to remain finite. On both multi-class kernel logistic regression and multi-class kernel support vector classification with data generated from class-dependent Gaussian mixture models, we observe stable function estimation and state of the art performance for distributed online multi-class classification. Experiments on the Brodatz textures further substantiate the empirical validity of this approach.

If you are out to describe the truth, leave elegance to the tailor. Machine learning is everywhere now, from self-driving cars to Siri and Google Translate, to news recommendation systems and, of course, trading. In the investing world, machine learning is at an inflection point. What was bleeding edge is rapidly going mainstream. It's being incorporated into mainstream tools, news recommendation engines, sentiment analysis, stock screeners. And the software frameworks are increasingly commoditized, so you don't need to be a machine learning specialist to make your own models and predictions. If you're an old-school quant investor, you may have been trained in traditional statistics paradigms and want to see if machine learning can improve your models and predictions. If so, then this primer is for you! Even if you're not planning to build your own models, AI tools are proliferating, and investors who use them will want to know the concepts behind them. And machine learning is transforming society with huge investing implications, so investors should know basically how it works. In school, when we studied modeling and forecasting, we were probably studying statistical methods. Those methods were created by geniuses like Pascal, Gauss, and Bernoulli.

Knowledge transfer between tasks can improve the performance of learned models, but requires an accurate estimate of the inter-task relationships to identify the relevant knowledge to transfer. These inter-task relationships are typically estimated based on training data for each task, which is inefficient in lifelong learning settings where the goal is to learn each consecutive task rapidly from as little data as possible. To reduce this burden, we develop a lifelong learning method based on coupled dictionary learning that utilizes high-level task descriptions to model the inter-task relationships. We show that using task descriptors improves the performance of the learned task policies, providing both theoretical justification for the benefit and empirical demonstration of the improvement across a variety of learning problems. Given only the descriptor for a new task, the lifelong learner is also able to accurately predict a model for the new task through zero-shot learning using the coupled dictionary, eliminating the need to gather training data before addressing the task.

XGBoost is often presented as the algorithm that wins every ML competition. Surprisingly, this is true even though predictions are piecewise constant. This might be justified in high dimensional input spaces, but when the number of features is low, a piecewise linear model is likely to perform better. XGBoost was extended into LinXGBoost that stores at each leaf a linear model. This extension, equivalent to piecewise regularized least-squares, is particularly attractive for regression of functions that exhibits jumps or discontinuities. Those functions are notoriously hard to regress. Our extension is compared to the vanilla XGBoost and Random Forest in experiments on both synthetic and real-world data sets.