Prediction intervals are a valuable way of quantifying uncertainty in regression problems. Good prediction intervals should be both correct, containing the actual value between the lower and upper bound at least a target percentage of the time; and tight, having a small mean width of the bounds. Many prior techniques for generating prediction intervals make assumptions on the distribution of error, which causes them to work poorly for problems with asymmetric distributions. This paper presents Expanded Interval Minimization (EIM), a novel loss function for generating prediction intervals using neural networks. This loss function uses minibatch statistics to estimate the coverage and optimize the width of the prediction intervals. It does not make the same assumptions on the distributions of data and error as prior work. We compare to three published techniques and show EIM produces on average 1.37x tighter prediction intervals and in the worst case 1.06x tighter intervals across two large real-world datasets and varying coverage levels.

Logistic Regression is a staple of the data science workflow. Below, I show how to implement Logistic Regression with Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) in a few dozen lines of Python code, using NumPy. Then I will show how to build a nonlinear decision boundary with Logistic Regression by using feature crosses. Here is the repo with the full code shown below. Although, in many applications Logistic Regression has been replaced by more advanced techniques such as ensemble tree-based methods (like gradient boosting) or by deep neural networks. However, it is still commonly used due to its simplicity and interpretability.

We introduce a new family of margin-based regret guarantees for adversarial contextual bandit learning. Our results are based on multiclass surrogate losses. Using the ramp loss, we derive a universal margin-based regret bound in terms of the sequential metric entropy for a benchmark class of real-valued regression functions. The new margin bound serves as a complete contextual bandit analogue of the classical margin bound from statistical learning. The result applies to large nonparametric classes, improving on the best known results for Lipschitz contextual bandits (Cesa-Bianchi et al., 2017) and, as a special case, generalizes the dimension-independent Banditron regret bound (Kakade et al., 2008) to arbitrary linear classes with smooth norms. On the algorithmic side, we use the hinge loss to derive an efficient algorithm with a $\sqrt{dT}$-type mistake bound against benchmark policies induced by $d$-dimensional regression functions. This provides the first hinge loss-based solution to the open problem of Abernethy and Rakhlin (2009). With an additional i.i.d. assumption we give a simple oracle-efficient algorithm whose regret matches our generic metric entropy-based bound for sufficiently complex nonparametric classes. Under realizability assumptions our results also yield classical regret bounds.

Isotonic regression is a standard problem in shape-constrained estimation where the goal is to estimate an unknown nondecreasing regression function $f$ from independent pairs $(x_i, y_i)$ where $\mathbb{E}[y_i]=f(x_i), i=1, \ldots n$. While this problem is well understood both statistically and computationally, much less is known about its uncoupled counterpart where one is given only the unordered sets $\{x_1, \ldots, x_n\}$ and $\{y_1, \ldots, y_n\}$. In this work, we leverage tools from optimal transport theory to derive minimax rates under weak moments conditions on $y_i$ and to give an efficient algorithm achieving optimal rates. Both upper and lower bounds employ moment-matching arguments that are also pertinent to learning mixtures of distributions and deconvolution.

Regularization plays a crucial role in supervised learning. A successfully regularized model strikes a balance between a perfect description of the training data and the ability to generalize to unseen data. Most existing methods enforce a global regularization in a structure agnostic manner. In this paper, we initiate a new direction and propose to enforce the structural simplicity of the classification boundary by regularizing over its topological complexity. In particular, our measurement of topological complexity incorporates the importance of topological features (e.g., connected components, handles, and so on) in a meaningful manner, and provides a direct control over spurious topological structures. We incorporate the new measurement as a topological loss in training classifiers. We also propose an efficient algorithm to compute the gradient. Our method provides a novel way to topologically simplify the global structure of the model, without having to sacrifice too much of the flexibility of the model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our new topological regularizer on a range of synthetic and real-world datasets.

We specialize the decoupled extended Kalman filter (DEKF) for online parameter learning in factorization models, including factorization machines, matrix and tensor factorization, and illustrate the effectiveness of the approach through simulations. Learning model parameters through the DEKF makes factorization models more broadly useful by allowing for more flexible observations through the entire exponential family, modeling parameter drift, and producing parameter uncertainty estimates that can enable explore/exploit and other applications. We use a more general dynamics of the parameters than the standard DEKF, allowing parameter drift while encouraging reasonable values. We also present an alternate derivation of the regular extended Kalman filter and DEKF that connects these methods to natural gradient methods, and suggests a similarly decoupled version of the iterated extended Kalman filter.

We consider the following conditional linear regression problem: the task is to identify both (i) a $k$-DNF condition $c$ and (ii) a linear rule $f$ such that the probability of $c$ is (approximately) at least some given bound $\mu$, and $f$ minimizes the $\ell_p$ loss of predicting the target $z$ in the distribution of examples conditioned on $c$. Thus, the task is to identify a portion of the distribution on which a linear rule can provide a good fit. Algorithms for this task are useful in cases where simple, learnable rules only accurately model portions of the distribution. The prior state-of-the-art for such algorithms could only guarantee finding a condition of probability $\Omega(\mu/n^k)$ when a condition of probability $\mu$ exists, and achieved an $O(n^k)$-approximation to the target loss, where $n$ is the number of Boolean attributes. Here, we give efficient algorithms for solving this task with a condition $c$ that nearly matches the probability of the ideal condition, while also improving the approximation to the target loss. We also give an algorithm for finding a $k$-DNF reference class for prediction at a given query point, that obtains a sparse regression fit that has loss within $O(n^k)$ of optimal among all sparse regression parameters and sufficiently large $k$-DNF reference classes containing the query point.

The intersection of machine learning and GIS is getting broader as we ask increasingly pragmatic questions related to complex spatial phenomena. Whether it is predicting traffic patterns in L.A. or the probability of being hit by the next big storm, we need answers to critical questions to make impactful decisions. In this blog, we'll explore an essential component needed towards answering such a question: what will the future climate be in U.S.? This question requires calibrating a global climate model with spatially-limited local temperature measurements. In a planet that is constantly warming, calibrating global climate models is vital to answer questions ranging from what will the average temperature be in Redlands in November 2050 to which Canadian cities will be wine country in the future.

Given independent samples generated from the joint distribution $p(\mathbf{x},\mathbf{y},\mathbf{z})$, we study the problem of Conditional Independence (CI-Testing), i.e., whether the joint equals the CI distribution $p^{CI}(\mathbf{x},\mathbf{y},\mathbf{z})= p(\mathbf{z}) p(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{z})p(\mathbf{x}|\mathbf{z})$ or not. We cast this problem under the purview of the proposed, provable meta-algorithm, "Mimic and Classify", which is realized in two-steps: (a) Mimic the CI distribution close enough to recover the support, and (b) Classify to distinguish the joint and the CI distribution. Thus, as long as we have a good generative model and a good classifier, we potentially have a sound CI Tester. With this modular paradigm, CI Testing becomes amiable to be handled by state-of-the-art, both generative and classification methods from the modern advances in Deep Learning, which in general can handle issues related to curse of dimensionality and operation in small sample regime. We show intensive numerical experiments on synthetic and real datasets where new mimic methods such conditional GANs, Regression with Neural Nets, outperform the current best CI Testing performance in the literature. Our theoretical results provide analysis on the estimation of null distribution as well as allow for general measures, i.e., when either some of the random variables are discrete and some are continuous or when one or more of them are discrete-continuous mixtures.

Michael Nielsen provides a visual demonstration in his web book Neural Networks and Deep Learning that a 1-layer deep neural network can match any function . It is just a matter of the number of neurons to get a prediction that is arbitrarily close – the more the neurons the better the approximation. There is the Universal Approximation Theorem as well that supplies a rigorous proof of the same.But the known issues with overfitting remain and the obtained network model is only good for the range of the training data. That is, if the training data consisted only of inputs with there would be no reason to expect the obtained network model to work outside of that range. This series of posts are about obtaining network models that are unique, generic and exact.