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 Regression


EDC: Equation Discovery for Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Equation Discovery techniques have shown considerable success in regression tasks, where they are used to discover concise and interpretable models (\textit{Symbolic Regression}). In this paper, we propose a new ED-based binary classification framework. Our proposed method EDC finds analytical functions of manageable size that specify the location and shape of the decision boundary. In extensive experiments on artificial and real-life data, we demonstrate how EDC is able to discover both the structure of the target equation as well as the value of its parameters, outperforming the current state-of-the-art ED-based classification methods in binary classification and achieving performance comparable to the state of the art in binary classification. We suggest a grammar of modest complexity that appears to work well on the tested datasets but argue that the exact grammar -- and thus the complexity of the models -- is configurable, and especially domain-specific expressions can be included in the pattern language, where that is required. The presented grammar consists of a series of summands (additive terms) that include linear, quadratic and exponential terms, as well as products of two features (producing hyperbolic curves ideal for capturing XOR-like dependencies). The experiments demonstrate that this grammar allows fairly flexible decision boundaries while not so rich to cause overfitting.


Eigen-Value: Efficient Domain-Robust Data Valuation via Eigenvalue-Based Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data valuation has become central in the era of data-centric AI. It drives efficient training pipelines and enables objective pricing in data markets by assigning a numeric value to each data point. Most existing data valuation methods estimate the effect of removing individual data points by evaluating changes in model validation performance under in-distribution (ID) settings, as opposed to out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios where data follow different patterns. Since ID and OOD data behave differently, data valuation methods based on ID loss often fail to generalize to OOD settings, particularly when the validation set contains no OOD data. Furthermore, although OOD-aware methods exist, they involve heavy computational costs, which hinder practical deployment. To address these challenges, we introduce \emph{Eigen-Value} (EV), a plug-and-play data valuation framework for OOD robustness that uses only an ID data subset, including during validation. EV provides a new spectral approximation of domain discrepancy, which is the gap of loss between ID and OOD using ratios of eigenvalues of ID data's covariance matrix. EV then estimates the marginal contribution of each data point to this discrepancy via perturbation theory, alleviating the computational burden. Subsequently, EV plugs into ID loss-based methods by adding an EV term without any additional training loop. We demonstrate that EV achieves improved OOD robustness and stable value rankings across real-world datasets, while remaining computationally lightweight. These results indicate that EV is practical for large-scale settings with domain shift, offering an efficient path to OOD-robust data valuation.


The Effects of Flipped Classrooms in Higher Education: A Causal Machine Learning Analysis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This study uses double/debiased machine learning (DML) to evaluate the impact of transitioning from lecture-based blended teaching to a flipped classroom concept. Our findings indicate effects on students' self-conception, procrastination, and enjoyment. We do not find significant positive effects on exam scores, passing rates, or knowledge retention. This can be explained by the insufficient use of the instructional approach that we can identify with uniquely detailed usage data and highlights the need for additional teaching strategies. Methodologically, we propose a powerful DML approach that acknowledges the latent structure inherent in Likert scale variables and, hence, aligns with psychometric principles.


Causal Effect Estimation with TMLE: Handling Missing Data and Near-Violations of Positivity

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We evaluate the performance of targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) for estimating the average treatment effect in missing data scenarios under varying levels of positivity violations. We employ model- and design-based simulations, with the latter using undersmoothed highly adaptive lasso on the 'WASH Benefits Bangladesh' dataset to mimic real-world complexities. Five missingness-directed acyclic graphs are considered, capturing common missing data mechanisms in epidemiological research, particularly in one-point exposure studies. These mechanisms include also not-at-random missingness in the exposure, outcome, and confounders. We compare eight missing data methods in conjunction with TMLE as the analysis method, distinguishing between non-multiple imputation (non-MI) and multiple imputation (MI) approaches. The MI approaches use both parametric and machine-learning models. Results show that non-MI methods, particularly complete cases with TMLE incorporating an outcome-missingness model, exhibit lower bias compared to all other evaluated missing data methods and greater robustness against positivity violations across. In Comparison MI with classification and regression trees (CART) achieve lower root mean squared error, while often maintaining nominal coverage rates. Our findings highlight the trade-offs between bias and coverage, and we recommend using complete cases with TMLE incorporating an outcome-missingness model for bias reduction and MI CART when accurate confidence intervals are the priority.


Quantifying Dataset Similarity to Guide Transfer Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Transfer learning has become a cornerstone of modern machine learning, as it can empower models by leveraging knowledge from related domains to improve learning effectiveness. However, transferring from poorly aligned data can harm rather than help performance, making it crucial to determine whether the transfer will be beneficial before implementation. This work aims to address this challenge by proposing an innovative metric to measure dataset similarity and provide quantitative guidance on transferability. In the literature, existing methods largely focus on feature distributions while overlooking label information and predictive relationships, potentially missing critical transferability insights. In contrast, our proposed metric, the Cross-Learning Score (CLS), measures dataset similarity through bidirectional generalization performance between domains. We provide a theoretical justification for CLS by establishing its connection to the cosine similarity between the decision boundaries for the target and source datasets. Computationally, CLS is efficient and fast to compute as it bypasses the problem of expensive distribution estimation for high-dimensional problems. We further introduce a general framework that categorizes source datasets into positive, ambiguous, or negative transfer zones based on their CLS relative to the baseline error, enabling informed decisions. Additionally, we extend this approach to encoder-head architectures in deep learning to better reflect modern transfer pipelines. Extensive experiments on diverse synthetic and real-world tasks demonstrate that CLS can reliably predict whether transfer will improve or degrade performance, offering a principled tool for guiding data selection in transfer learning.


Adversarial Robustness of Nonparametric Regression

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we investigate the adversarial robustness of nonparametric regression, a fundamental problem in machine learning, under the setting where an adversary can arbitrarily corrupt a subset of the input data. While the robustness of parametric regression has been extensively studied, its nonparametric counterpart remains largely unexplored. We characterize the adversarial robustness in nonparametric regression, assuming the regression function belongs to the second-order Sobolev space (i.e., it is square integrable up to its second derivative). The contribution of this paper is two-fold: (i) we establish a minimax lower bound on the estimation error, revealing a fundamental limit that no estimator can overcome, and (ii) we show that, perhaps surprisingly, the classical smoothing spline estimator, when properly regularized, exhibits robustness against adversarial corruption. These results imply that if $o(n)$ out of $n$ samples are corrupted, the estimation error of the smoothing spline vanishes as $n \to \infty$. On the other hand, when a constant fraction of the data is corrupted, no estimator can guarantee vanishing estimation error, implying the optimality of the smoothing spline in terms of maximum tolerable number of corrupted samples.


Improving Predictions of Molecular Properties with Graph Featurisation and Heterogeneous Ensemble Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We explore a "best-of-both" approach to modelling molecular properties by combining learned molecular descriptors from a graph neural network (GNN) with general-purpose descriptors and a mixed ensemble of machine learning (ML) models. We introduce a MetaModel framework to aggregate predictions from a diverse set of leading ML models. We present a featurisation scheme for combining task-specific GNN-derived features with conventional molecular descriptors. We demonstrate that our framework outperforms the cutting-edge ChemProp model on all regression datasets tested and 6 of 9 classification datasets. We further show that including the GNN features derived from ChemProp boosts the ensemble model's performance on several datasets where it otherwise would have underperformed. We conclude that to achieve optimal performance across a wide set of problems, it is vital to combine general-purpose descriptors with task-specific learned features and use a diverse set of ML models to make the predictions.


Deriving Transformer Architectures as Implicit Multinomial Regression

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While attention has been empirically shown to improve model performance, it lacks a rigorous mathematical justification. This short paper establishes a novel connection between attention mechanisms and multinomial regression. Specifically, we show that in a fixed multinomial regression setting, optimizing over latent features yields solutions that align with the dynamics induced on features by attention blocks. In other words, the evolution of representations through a transformer can be interpreted as a trajectory that recovers the optimal features for classification.


CityRiSE: Reasoning Urban Socio-Economic Status in Vision-Language Models via Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Harnessing publicly available, large-scale web data, such as street view and satellite imagery, urban socio-economic sensing is of paramount importance for achieving global sustainable development goals. With the emergence of Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs), new opportunities have arisen to solve this task by treating it as a multi-modal perception and understanding problem. However, recent studies reveal that LVLMs still struggle with accurate and interpretable socio-economic predictions from visual data. To address these limitations and maximize the potential of LVLMs, we introduce \textbf{CityRiSE}, a novel framework for \textbf{R}eason\textbf{i}ng urban \textbf{S}ocio-\textbf{E}conomic status in LVLMs through pure reinforcement learning (RL). With carefully curated multi-modal data and verifiable reward design, our approach guides the LVLM to focus on semantically meaningful visual cues, enabling structured and goal-oriented reasoning for generalist socio-economic status prediction. Experiments demonstrate that CityRiSE with emergent reasoning process significantly outperforms existing baselines, improving both prediction accuracy and generalization across diverse urban contexts, particularly for prediction on unseen cities and unseen indicators. This work highlights the promise of combining RL and LVLMs for interpretable and generalist urban socio-economic sensing.


Framework for Machine Evaluation of Reasoning Completeness in Large Language Models For Classification Tasks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The growing adoption of machine learning (ML) in sensitive domains has heightened the demand for transparent and interpretable artificial intelligence. Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly capable of producing natural language explanations, yet it remains unclear whether these rationales faithfully capture the predictive signals that underlie decisions. This paper introduces RACE-Reasoning Alignment for Completeness of Explanations, a systematic framework to evaluate the alignment between LLM-generated explanations and interpretable feature importance scores derived from a logistic regression baseline. We analyze four widely used text classification datasets-WIKI ONTOLOGY, AG NEWS, IMDB, and GOEMOTIONS-and compare LLM rationales against top-ranked supporting and contradicting lexical features. To capture alignment at multiple levels of granularity, RACE implements token-aware, exact string, and edit-distance matching techniques. Empirical results reveal a consistent asymmetry: correct predictions exhibit higher coverage of supporting features, while incorrect predictions are associated with elevated coverage of contradicting features. Edit-distance matching further uncovers paraphrastic overlaps, boosting coverage while preserving this asymmetry. These findings demonstrate that LLM rationales combine both surface-level and flexible evidence reuse, yet can also amplify misleading cues in error cases. RACE provides new insights into the faithfulness of LLM explanations and establishes a quantitative basis for evaluating reasoning completeness in neural language models.