Abstract--In power systems, an asset class is a group of power equipment that has the same function and shares similar electrical or mechanical characteristics. Predicting failures for different asset classes is critical for electric utilities towards developing cost-effective asset management strategies. Previously, physical age based Weibull distribution has been widely used to failure prediction. However, this mathematical model cannot incorporate asset condition data such as inspection or testing results. As a result, the prediction cannot be very specific and accurate for individual assets. To solve this important problem, this paper proposes a novel and comprehensive data-driven approach based on asset condition data: K-means clustering as an unsupervised learning method is used to analyze the inner structure of historical asset condition data and produce the asset conditional ages; logistic regression as a supervised learning method takes in both asset physical ages and conditional ages to classify and predict asset statuses. Furthermore, an index called average aging rate is defined to quantify, track and estimate the relationship between asset physical age and conditional age. This approach was applied to an urban distribution system in West Canada to predict medium-voltage cable failures. Case studies and comparison with standard Weibull distribution are provided. The proposed approach demonstrates superior performance and practicality for predicting asset class failures in power systems. I. INTRODUCTION oday, more and more electric utilities are mandated by regulators to develop cost-effective long-term asset management strategies to reduce overall cost while maintaining system reliability [1-2]. Sophisticated and optimal asset management strategies can only be established based on the accurate prediction of asset failures in the future.

Before getting into neural networks, let's complete the last section for logistic regression -- Multi-class Logistic Regression. This series of exercise make use of a handwritten digits dataset that consists of 5000 training examples, where each example is a 20 pixel by 20 pixel grayscale image of the digit. Since the dataset was given in .mat The official documentation can be found here. To better understand the dataset, having the shape of the data tells us the dimension of the data.

Terms like "machine learning," "deep learning," "neural networks," "artificial intelligence" or "A.I.," "data science," and more have been the buzzwords of the last few years in technology. Because of advances in computing power and an increase in the amount of data available, techniques that have been known about for decades can now be put into meaningful practice. But what do they actually mean? Most of us are aware of the 10,000-foot explanation along the lines of "It's all about teaching computers to solve problems for us," but many people probably aren't aware of what is actually going on under the hood. The basics of machine learning are simple enough, intuitive enough, and, more importantly, interesting enough to be picked up by anyone in a relatively short amount of time.

This paper proposes new search algorithms for counterfactual explanations based upon mixed integer programming. We are concerned with complex data in which variables may take any value from a contiguous range or an additional set of discrete states. We propose a novel set of constraints that we refer to as a "mixed polytope" and show how this can be used with an integer programming solver to efficiently find coherent counterfactual explanations i.e. solutions that are guaranteed to map back onto the underlying data structure, while avoiding the need for brute-force enumeration. We also look at the problem of diverse explanations and show how these can be generated within our framework.

This paper proposes a novel discriminative regression method, called adaptive locality preserving regression (ALPR) for classification. In particular, ALPR aims to learn a more flexible and discriminative projection that not only preserves the intrinsic structure of data, but also possesses the properties of feature selection and interpretability. To this end, we introduce a target learning technique to adaptively learn a more discriminative and flexible target matrix rather than the pre-defined strict zero-one label matrix for regression. Then a locality preserving constraint regularized by the adaptive learned weights is further introduced to guide the projection learning, which is beneficial to learn a more discriminative projection and avoid overfitting. Moreover, we replace the conventional `Frobenius norm' with the special l21 norm to constrain the projection, which enables the method to adaptively select the most important features from the original high-dimensional data for feature extraction. In this way, the negative influence of the redundant features and noises residing in the original data can be greatly eliminated. Besides, the proposed method has good interpretability for features owing to the row-sparsity property of the l21 norm. Extensive experiments conducted on the synthetic database with manifold structure and many real-world databases prove the effectiveness of the proposed method.

In this paper, we propose a hybrid bankcard response model, which integrates decision tree based chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID) into logistic regression. In the first stage of the hybrid model, CHAID analysis is used to detect the possibly potential variable interactions. Then in the second stage, these potential interactions are served as the additional input variables in logistic regression. The motivation of the proposed hybrid model is that adding variable interactions may improve the performance of logistic regression. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model, it is evaluated on a real credit customer response data set. As the results reveal, by identifying potential interactions among independent variables, the proposed hybrid approach outperforms the logistic regression without searching for interactions in terms of classification accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistics. Furthermore, CHAID analysis for interaction detection is much more computationally efficient than the stepwise search mentioned above and some identified interactions are shown to have statistically significant predictive power on the target variable. Last but not least, the customer profile created based on the CHAID tree provides a reasonable interpretation of the interactions, which is the required by regulations of the credit industry. Hence, this study provides an alternative for handling bankcard classification tasks.

A weighted random survival forest is presented in the paper. It can be regarded as a modification of the random forest improving its performance. The main idea underlying the proposed model is to replace the standard procedure of averaging used for estimation of the random survival forest hazard function by weighted avaraging where the weights are assigned to every tree and can be veiwed as training paremeters which are computed in an optimal way by solving a standard quadratic optimization problem maximizing Harrell's C-index. Numerical examples with real data illustrate the outperformance of the proposed model in comparison with the original random survival forest.

We present a novel approach for nonparametric regression using wavelet basis functions. Our proposal, waveMesh, can be applied to non-equispaced data with sample size not necessarily a power of 2. We develop an efficient proximal gradient descent algorithm for computing the estimator and establish adaptive minimax convergence rates. The main appeal of our approach is that it naturally extends to additive and sparse additive models for a potentially large number of covariates. We prove minimax optimal convergence rates under a weak compatibility condition for sparse additive models. The compatibility condition holds when we have a small number of covariates. Additionally, we establish convergence rates for when the condition is not met. We complement our theoretical results with empirical studies comparing waveMesh to existing methods.

Coresets are one of the central methods to facilitate the analysis of large data. We continue a recent line of research applying the theory of coresets to logistic regression. First, we show the negative result that no strongly sublinear sized coresets exist for logistic regression. To deal with intractable worst-case instances we introduce a complexity measure $\mu(X)$, which quantifies the hardness of compressing a data set for logistic regression. $\mu(X)$ has an intuitive statistical interpretation that may be of independent interest. For data sets with bounded $\mu(X)$-complexity, we show that a novel sensitivity sampling scheme produces the first provably sublinear $(1\pm\eps)$-coreset. We illustrate the performance of our method by comparing to uniform sampling as well as to state of the art methods in the area. The experiments are conducted on real world benchmark data for logistic regression.

We propose a nonparametric derivative estimation method for random design without having to estimate the regression function. The method is based on a variance-reducing linear combination of symmetric difference quotients. First, we discuss the special case of uniform random design and establish the estimator's asymptotic properties. Secondly, we generalize these results for any distribution of the dependent variable and compare the proposed estimator with popular estimators for derivative estimation such as local polynomial regression and smoothing splines.