While machine learning (ML) methods have received a lot of attention in recent years, these methods are primarily for prediction. Empirical researchers conducting policy evaluations are, on the other hand, pre-occupied with causal problems, trying to answer counterfactual questions: what would have happened in the absence of a policy? Because these counterfactuals can never be directly observed (described as the "fundamental problem of causal inference") prediction tools from the ML literature cannot be readily used for causal inference. In the last decade, major innovations have taken place incorporating supervised ML tools into estimators for causal parameters such as the average treatment effect (ATE). This holds the promise of attenuating model misspecification issues, and increasing of transparency in model selection. One particularly mature strand of the literature include approaches that incorporate supervised ML approaches in the estimation of the ATE of a binary treatment, under the \textit{unconfoundedness} and positivity assumptions (also known as exchangeability and overlap assumptions). This article reviews popular supervised machine learning algorithms, including the Super Learner. Then, some specific uses of machine learning for treatment effect estimation are introduced and illustrated, namely (1) to create balance among treated and control groups, (2) to estimate so-called nuisance models (e.g. the propensity score, or conditional expectations of the outcome) in semi-parametric estimators that target causal parameters (e.g. targeted maximum likelihood estimation or the double ML estimator), and (3) the use of machine learning for variable selection in situations with a high number of covariates.

We investigate the complexity of logistic regression models which is defined by counting the number of indistinguishable distributions that the model can represent (Balasubramanian, 1997). We find that the complexity of logistic models with binary inputs does not only depend on the number of parameters but also on the distribution of inputs in a non-trivial way which standard treatments of complexity do not address. In particular, we observe that correlations among inputs induce effective dependencies among parameters thus constraining the model and, consequently, reducing its complexity. We derive simple relations for the upper and lower bounds of the complexity. Furthermore, we show analytically that, defining the model parameters on a finite support rather than the entire axis, decreases the complexity in a manner that critically depends on the size of the domain. Based on our findings, we propose a novel model selection criterion which takes into account the entropy of the input distribution. We test our proposal on the problem of selecting the input variables of a logistic regression model in a Bayesian Model Selection framework. In our numerical tests, we find that, while the reconstruction errors of standard model selection approaches (AIC, BIC, $\ell_1$ regularization) strongly depend on the sparsity of the ground truth, the reconstruction error of our method is always close to the minimum in all conditions of sparsity, data size and strength of input correlations. Finally, we observe that, when considering categorical instead of binary inputs, in a simple and mathematically tractable case, the contribution of the alphabet size to the complexity is very small compared to that of parameter space dimension. We further explore the issue by analysing the dataset of the "13 keys to the White House" which is a method for forecasting the outcomes of US presidential elections.

Complex black-box predictive models may have high accuracy, but opacity causes problems like lack of trust, lack of stability, sensitivity to concept drift. On the other hand, interpretable models require more work related to feature engineering, which is very time consuming. Can we train interpretable and accurate models, without timeless feature engineering? In this article, we show a method that uses elastic black-boxes as surrogate models to create a simpler, less opaque, yet still accurate and interpretable glass-box models. New models are created on newly engineered features extracted/learned with the help of a surrogate model. We show applications of this method for model level explanations and possible extensions for instance level explanations. We also present an example implementation in Python and benchmark this method on a number of tabular data sets.

The $\ell_p$ linear regression problem is to minimize $f(x)=||Ax-b||_p$ over $x\in\mathbb{R}^d$, where $A\in\mathbb{R}^{n\times d}$, $b\in \mathbb{R}^n$, and $p>0$. To avoid overfitting and bound $||x||_2$, the constrained $\ell_p$ regression minimizes $f(x)$ over every unit vector $x\in\mathbb{R}^d$. This makes the problem non-convex even for the simplest case $d=p=2$. Instead, ridge regression is used to minimize the Lagrange form $f(x)+\lambda ||x||_2$ over $x\in\mathbb{R}^d$, which yields a convex problem in the price of calibrating the regularization parameter $\lambda>0$. We provide the first provable constant factor approximation algorithm that solves the constrained $\ell_p$ regression directly, for every constant $p,d\geq 1$. Using core-sets, its running time is $O(n \log n)$ including extensions for streaming and distributed (big) data. In polynomial time, it can handle outliers, $p\in (0,1)$ and minimize $f(x)$ over every $x$ and permutation of rows in $A$. Experimental results are also provided, including open source and comparison to existing software.

We investigate the signal reconstruction performance of sparse linear regression in the presence of noise when piecewise continuous nonconvex penalties are used. Among such penalties, we focus on the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty. The contributions of this study are three-fold: We first present a theoretical analysis of a typical reconstruction performance, using the replica method, under the assumption that each component of the design matrix is given as an independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) Gaussian variable. This clarifies the superiority of the SCAD estimator compared with $\ell_1$ in a wide parameter range, although the nonconvex nature of the penalty tends to lead to solution multiplicity in certain regions. This multiplicity is shown to be connected to replica symmetry breaking in the spin-glass theory, and associated phase diagrams are given. We also show that the global minimum of the mean square error between the estimator and the true signal is located in the replica symmetric phase. Second, we develop an approximate formula efficiently computing the cross-validation error without actually conducting the cross-validation, which is also applicable to the non-i.i.d. design matrices. It is shown that this formula is only applicable to the unique solution region and tends to be unstable in the multiple solution region. We implement instability detection procedures, which allows the approximate formula to stand alone and resultantly enables us to draw phase diagrams for any specific dataset. Third, we propose an annealing procedure, called nonconvexity annealing, to obtain the solution path efficiently. Numerical simulations are conducted on simulated datasets to examine these results to verify the consistency of the theoretical results and the efficiency of the approximate formula and nonconvexity annealing.

Real world data often exhibit inhomogeneity - complexity of the target function, noise level, etc. are not uniform over the input space. We address the issue of estimating locally optimal kernel bandwidth as a way to describe inhomogeneity. Estimated kernel bandwidths can be used not only for improving the regression/classification performance, but also for Bayesian optimization and active learning, i.e., we need more samples in the region where the function complexity and the noise level are higher. Our method, called kernel mixture of kernel experts regression (KMKER) follows the concept of mixture of experts, which is constituted of several complementary inference models, the so called experts, where in advance a latent classifier, called the gate, predicts the best fitting expert for each test input to infer. For the experts we implement Gaussian process regression models at different (global) bandwidths and a multinomial kernel logistic regression model as the gate. The basic idea behind mixture of experts is, that several distinct ground truth functions over a joint input space drive the observations, which one may want to disentangle. Each expert is meant to model one of the incompatible functions such that each expert needs its individual set of hyperparameters. We differ from that idea in the sense that we assume only one ground truth function which however exhibits spacially inhomogeneous behavior. Under these assumptions we share the hyperparameters among the experts keeping their number constant. We compare KMKER to previous methods (which cope with inhomogeneity but do not provide the optimal bandwidth estimator) on artificial and benchmark data and analyze its performance and capability for interpretation on datasets from quantum chemistry. We also demonstrate how KMKER can be applied for automatic adaptive grid selection in fluid dynamics simulations.

Build machine learning models, natural language processing applications, and recommender systems with PySpark to solve various business challenges. This book starts with the fundamentals of Spark and its evolution and then covers the entire spectrum of traditional machine learning algorithms along with natural language processing and recommender systems using PySpark. Machine Learning with PySpark shows you how to build supervised machine learning models such as linear regression, logistic regression, decision trees, and random forest. You'll also see unsupervised machine learning models such as K-means and hierarchical clustering. A major portion of the book focuses on feature engineering to create useful features with PySpark to train the machine learning models.

Binscatter is very popular in applied microeconomics. It provides a flexible, yet parsimonious way of visualizing and summarizing large data sets in regression settings, and it is often used for informal evaluation of substantive hypotheses such as linearity or monotonicity of the regression function. This paper presents a foundational, thorough analysis of binscatter: we give an array of theoretical and practical results that aid both in understanding current practices (i.e., their validity or lack thereof) and in offering theory-based guidance for future applications. Our main results include principled number of bins selection, confidence intervals and bands, hypothesis tests for parametric and shape restrictions of the regression function, and several other new methods, applicable to canonical binscatter as well as higher-order polynomial, covariate-adjusted and smoothness-restricted extensions thereof. In particular, we highlight important methodological problems related to covariate adjustment methods used in current practice. We also discuss extensions to clustered data. Our results are illustrated with simulated and real data throughout. Companion general-purpose software packages for \texttt{Stata} and \texttt{R} are provided. Finally, from a technical perspective, new theoretical results for partitioning-based series estimation are obtained that may be of independent interest.

Question Answering (QA), as a research field, has primarily focused on either knowledge bases (KBs) or free text as a source of knowledge. These two sources have historically shaped the kinds of questions that are asked over these sources, and the methods developed to answer them. In this work, we look towards a practical use-case of QA over user-instructed knowledge that uniquely combines elements of both structured QA over knowledge bases, and unstructured QA over narrative, introducing the task of multi-relational QA over personal narrative. As a first step towards this goal, we make three key contributions: (i) we generate and release TextWorldsQA, a set of five diverse datasets, where each dataset contains dynamic narrative that describes entities and relations in a simulated world, paired with variably compositional questions over that knowledge, (ii) we perform a thorough evaluation and analysis of several state-of-the-art QA models and their variants at this task, and (iii) we release a lightweight Python-based framework we call TextWorlds for easily generating arbitrary additional worlds and narrative, with the goal of allowing the community to create and share a growing collection of diverse worlds as a test-bed for this task.

Single index model is a powerful yet simple model, widely used in statistics, machine learning, and other scientific fields. It models the regression function as $g()$, where a is an unknown index vector and x are the features. This paper deals with a nonlinear generalization of this framework to allow for a regressor that uses multiple index vectors, adapting to local changes in the responses. To do so we exploit the conditional distribution over function-driven partitions, and use linear regression to locally estimate index vectors. We then regress by applying a kNN type estimator that uses a localized proxy of the geodesic metric. We present theoretical guarantees for estimation of local index vectors and out-of-sample prediction, and demonstrate the performance of our method with experiments on synthetic and real-world data sets, comparing it with state-of-the-art methods.