Industrial process control systems try to keep an output variable within a given tolerance around a target value. PID control systems have been widely used in industry to control input variables in order to reach this goal. However, this kind of Transfer Function based approach cannot be extended to complex processes where input data might be non-numeric, high dimensional, sparse, etc. In such cases, there is still a need for determining the subspace of input data that produces an output within a given range. This paper presents a non-stochastic heuristic to determine input values for a mathematical function or trained regression model given an output range. The proposed method creates a synthetic training data set of input combinations with a class label that indicates whether the output is within the given target range or not. Then, a decision tree classifier is used to determine the subspace of input data of interest. This method is more general than a traditional controller as the target range for the output does not have to be centered around a reference value and it can be applied given a regression model of the output variable, which may have categorical variables as inputs and may be high dimensional, sparse... The proposed heuristic is validated with a proof of concept on a real use case where the quality of a lamination factory is established to identify the suitable subspace of production variable values.

Selecting input data or design points for statistical models has been of great interest in sequential design and active learning. In this paper, we present a new strategy of selecting the design points for a regression model when the underlying regression function is discontinuous. Two main motivating examples are (1) compressed material imaging with the purpose of accelerating the imaging speed and (2) design for regression analysis over a phase diagram in chemistry. In both examples, the underlying regression functions have discontinuities, so many of the existing design optimization approaches cannot be applied for the two examples because they mostly assume a continuous regression function. There are some studies for estimating a discontinuous regression function from its noisy observations, but all noisy observations are typically provided in advance in these studies. In this paper, we develop a design strategy of selecting the design points for regression analysis with discontinuities. We first review the existing approaches relevant to design optimization and active learning for regression analysis and discuss their limitations in handling a discontinuous regression function. We then present our novel design strategy for a regression analysis with discontinuities: some statistical properties with a fixed design will be presented first, and then these properties will be used to propose a new criterion of selecting the design points for the regression analysis. Sequential design of experiments with the new criterion will be presented with numerical examples.

Understanding of the effect of a particular treatment or a policy pertains to many areas of interest -- ranging from political economics, marketing to health-care and personalized treatment studies. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric, model-free test for detecting the effects of treatment over time that extends widely used Synthetic Control tests. The test is built on counterfactual predictions arising from many learning algorithms. In the Neyman-Rubin potential outcome framework with possible carry-over effects, we show that the proposed test is asymptotically consistent for stationary, beta mixing processes. We do not assume that class of learners captures the correct model necessarily. We also discuss estimates of the average treatment effect, and we provide regret bounds on the predictive performance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first set of results that allow for example any Random Forest to be useful for provably valid statistical inference in the Synthetic Control setting. In experiments, we show that our Synthetic Learner is substantially more powerful than classical methods based on Synthetic Control or Difference-in-Differences, especially in the presence of non-linear outcome models.

Future buildings will offer new convenience, comfort, and efficiency possibilities to their residents. Changes will occur to the way people live as technology involves into people's lives and information processing is fully integrated into their daily living activities and objects. The future expectation of smart buildings includes making the residents' experience as easy and comfortable as possible. The massive streaming data generated and captured by smart building appliances and devices contains valuable information that needs to be mined to facilitate timely actions and better decision making. Machine learning and big data analytics will undoubtedly play a critical role to enable the delivery of such smart services. In this paper, we survey the area of smart building with a special focus on the role of techniques from machine learning and big data analytics. This survey also reviews the current trends and challenges faced in the development of smart building services.

In such applications, a fundamental statistical tool is tensor regression, a modern high-dimensional regression method that relates a scalar response to tensor covariates. For example, in neuroimaging analysis, an important objective is to predict clinical outcomes using subjects' brain imaging data. This can be formulated as a tensor regression problem by treating the clinical outcomes as the response and the brain images as the tensor covariates. Another example is in the study of how advertisement placement affect users' clicking behavior in online advertising. This again can be formulated as a tensor regression problem by treating the daily overall click-through rate (CTR) as the response and the tensor that summarizes the impressions (i.e., view counts) of different advertisements on different devices (e.g., phone, computer, etc.) as the covariate. In Section 6, we consider such an online advertising application.

Time series forecasting is one of the challenging problems for humankind. Traditional forecasting methods using mean regression models have severe shortcomings in reflecting real-world fluctuations. While new probabilistic methods rush to rescue, they fight with technical difficulties like quantile crossing or selecting a prior distribution. To meld the different strengths of these fields while avoiding their weaknesses as well as to push the boundary of the state-of-the-art, we introduce ForGAN - one step ahead probabilistic forecasting with generative adversarial networks. ForGAN utilizes the power of the conditional generative adversarial network to learn the data generating distribution and compute probabilistic forecasts from it. We argue how to evaluate ForGAN in opposition to regression methods. To investigate probabilistic forecasting of ForGAN, we create a new dataset and demonstrate our method abilities on it. This dataset will be made publicly available for comparison. Furthermore, we test ForGAN on two publicly available datasets, namely Mackey-Glass dataset and Internet traffic dataset (A5M) where the impressive performance of ForGAN demonstrate its high capability in forecasting future values.

Patients with Type I Diabetes (T1D) must take insulin injections to prevent the serious long term effects of hyperglycemia - high blood glucose (BG). Patients must also be careful not to inject too much insulin because this could induce hypoglycemia (low BG), which can potentially be fatal. Patients therefore follow a "regimen" that determines how much insulin to inject at certain times. Current methods for managing this disease require adjusting the patient's regimen over time based on the disease's behavior (recorded in the patient's diabetes diary). If we can accurately predict a patient's future BG values from his/her current features (e.g., predicting today's lunch BG value given today's diabetes diary entry for breakfast, including insulin injections, and perhaps earlier entries), then it is relatively easy to produce an effective regimen. This study explores the challenges of BG modeling by applying several machine learning algorithms and various data preprocessing variations (corresponding to 312 [learner, preprocessed-dataset] combinations), to a new T1D dataset containing 29 601 entries from 47 different patients. Our most accurate predictor is a weighted ensemble of two Gaussian Process Regression models, which achieved an errL1 loss of 2.70 mmol/L (48.65 mg/dl). This was an unexpectedly poor result given that one can obtain an errL1 of 2.91 mmol/L (52.43 mg/dl) using the naive approach of simply predicting the patient's average BG. For each of data-variant/model combination we report several evaluation metrics, including glucose-specific metrics, and find similarly disappointing results (the best model was only incrementally better than the simplest measure). These results suggest that the diabetes diary data that is typically collected may not be sufficient to produce accurate BG prediction models; additional data may be necessary to build accurate BG prediction models.

In the regression setting, given a set of hyper-parameters, a model-estimation procedure constructs a model from training data. The optimal hyper-parameters that minimize generalization error of the model are usually unknown. In practice they are often estimated using split-sample validation. Up to now, there is an open question regarding how the generalization error of the selected model grows with the number of hyper-parameters to be estimated. To answer this question, we establish finite-sample oracle inequalities for selection based on a single training/test split and based on cross-validation. We show that if the model-estimation procedures are smoothly parameterized by the hyper-parameters, the error incurred from tuning hyper-parameters shrinks at nearly a parametric rate. Hence for semi- and non-parametric model-estimation procedures with a fixed number of hyper-parameters, this additional error is negligible. For parametric model-estimation procedures, adding a hyper-parameter is roughly equivalent to adding a parameter to the model itself. In addition, we specialize these ideas for penalized regression problems with multiple penalty parameters. We establish that the fitted models are Lipschitz in the penalty parameters and thus our oracle inequalities apply. This result encourages development of regularization methods with many penalty parameters.

In many research fields, the sizes of the existing datasets vary widely. Hence, there is a need for machine learning techniques which are well-suited for these different datasets. One possible technique is the self-organizing map (SOM), a type of artificial neural network which is, so far, weakly represented in the field of machine learning. The SOM's unique characteristic is the neighborhood relationship of the output neurons. This relationship improves the ability of generalization on small datasets. SOMs are mostly applied in unsupervised learning and few studies focus on using SOMs as supervised learning approach. Furthermore, no appropriate SOM package is available with respect to machine learning standards and in the widely used programming language Python. In this paper, we introduce the freely available SUpervised Self-organIzing maps (SUSI) Python package which performs supervised regression and classification. The implementation of SUSI is described with respect to the underlying mathematics. Then, we present first evaluations of the SOM for regression and classification datasets from two different domains of geospatial image analysis. Despite the early stage of its development, the SUSI framework performs well and is characterized by only small performance differences between the training and the test datasets. A comparison of the SUSI framework with existing Python and R packages demonstrates the importance of the SUSI framework. In future work, the SUSI framework will be extended, optimized and upgraded e.g. with tools to better understand and visualize the input data as well as the handling of missing and incomplete data.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a widely used approach for controlling systems with unknown or time-varying dynamics. Even though RL does not require a model of the system, it is known to be faster and safer when using models learned online. We propose to employ symbolic regression (SR) to construct parsimonious process models described by analytic equations for real-time RL control. We have tested our method with two different state-of-the-art SR algorithms which automatically search for equations that fit the measured data. In addition to the standard problem formulation in the state-space domain, we show how the method can also be applied to input-output models of the NARX (nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input) type. We present the approach on three simulated examples with up to 14-dimensional state space: an inverted pendulum, a mobile robot, and a biped walking robot. A comparison with deep neural networks and local linear regression shows that SR in most cases outperforms these commonly used alternative methods. We demonstrate on a real pendulum system that the analytic model found enables RL to successfully perform the swing-up task, based on a model constructed from only 100 data samples.