We address the task of identifying densely connected subsets of multivariate Gaussian random variables within a graphical model framework. We propose two novel estimators based on the Ordered Weighted $\ell_1$ (OWL) norm: 1) The Graphical OWL (GOWL) is a penalized likelihood method that applies the OWL norm to the lower triangle components of the precision matrix. 2) The column-by-column Graphical OWL (ccGOWL) estimates the precision matrix by performing OWL regularized linear regressions. Both methods can simultaneously identify highly correlated groups of variables and control the sparsity in the resulting precision matrix. We formulate GOWL such that it solves a composite optimization problem and establish that the estimator has a unique global solution. In addition, we prove sufficient grouping conditions for each column of the ccGOWL precision matrix estimate. We propose proximal descent algorithms to find the optimum for both estimators. For synthetic data where group structure is present, the ccGOWL estimator requires significantly reduced computation and achieves similar or greater accuracy than state-of-the-art estimators. Timing comparisons are presented and demonstrates the superior computational efficiency of the ccGOWL. We illustrate the grouping performance of the ccGOWL method on a cancer gene expression data set and an equities data set.

We consider the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects with arbitrary machine learning methods in the presence of unobserved confounders with the aid of a valid instrument. Such settings arise in A/B tests with an intent-to-treat structure, where the experimenter randomizes over which user will receive a recommendation to take an action, and we are interested in the effect of the downstream action. We develop a statistical learning approach to the estimation of heterogeneous effects, reducing the problem to the minimization of an appropriate loss function that depends on a set of auxiliary models (each corresponding to a separate prediction task). The reduction enables the use of all recent algorithmic advances (e.g. neural nets, forests). We show that the estimated effect model is robust to estimation errors in the auxiliary models, by showing that the loss satisfies a Neyman orthogonality criterion. Our approach can be used to estimate projections of the true effect model on simpler hypothesis spaces. When these spaces are parametric, then the parameter estimates are asymptotically normal, which enables construction of confidence sets. We applied our method to estimate the effect of membership on downstream webpage engagement on TripAdvisor, using as an instrument an intent-to-treat A/B test among 4 million TripAdvisor users, where some users received an easier membership sign-up process. We also validate our method on synthetic data and on public datasets for the effects of schooling on income.

Many machine learning problems reduce to the problem of minimizing an expected risk, defined as the sum of a large number of, often convex, component functions. Iterative gradient methods are popular techniques for the above problems. However, they are in general slow to converge, in particular for large data sets. In this work, we develop analysis for selecting a subset (or sketch) of training data points with their corresponding learning rates in order to provide faster convergence to a close neighbordhood of the optimal solution. We show that subsets that minimize the upper-bound on the estimation error of the full gradient, maximize a submodular facility location function. As a result, by greedily maximizing the facility location function we obtain subsets that yield faster convergence to a close neighborhood of the optimum solution. We demonstrate the real-world effectiveness of our algorithm, SIG, confirming our analysis, through an extensive set of experiments on several applications, including logistic regression and training neural networks. We also include a method that provides a deliberate deterministic ordering of the data subset that is quite effective in practice. We observe that our method, while achieving practically the same loss, speeds up gradient methods by up to 10x for convex and 3x for non-convex (deep) functions.

Linear regression is a common technique used in the association study between the targeted outcome and some potential risk factors (e.g., age, sex). The violation of the normality assumption sometimes may be attributed by the skewed nature of the dependent variable and may be a concern for naturally skewed outcome variables, such as best corrected visual acuity, 1 refractive error, 2 and Rasch score. Normality violation will affect the estimates of the standard error (SE) and the confidence interval, and hence the significance of the risk factors. Nonparametric regression model or bootstrap techniques are suggested to be performed as they provide more robust estimates of SE. However, nonparametric techniques require large sample sizes to supply; the model structure, and are very sensitive to the outliers. Thus, a key question is whether simple linear regression modeling still is valid if the "normality assumption" is violated.

Despite the widespread usage of machine learning throughout organizations, there are some key principles that are commonly missed. In particular: 1) There are at least four main families for supervised learning: logical modeling methods, linear combination methods, case-based reasoning methods, and iterative summarization methods. 2) For many application domains, almost all machine learning methods perform similarly (with some caveats). Deep learning methods, which are the leading technique for computer vision problems, do not maintain an edge over other methods for most problems (and there are reasons why). 3) Neural networks are hard to train and weird stuff often happens when you try to train them. 4) If you don't use an interpretable model, you can make bad mistakes. 5) Explanations can be misleading and you can't trust them. 6) You can pretty much always find an accurate-yet-interpretable model, even for deep neural networks. 7) Special properties such as decision making or robustness must be built in, they don't happen on their own. 8) Causal inference is different than prediction (correlation is not causation). 9) There is a method to the madness of deep neural architectures, but not always. 10) It is a myth that artificial intelligence can do anything.

Machine learning has recently been widely adopted to address the managerial decision making problems. However, there is a trade-off between performance and interpretability. Full complexity models (such as neural network-based models) are non-traceable black-box, whereas classic interpretable models (such as logistic regression) are usually simplified with lower accuracy. This trade-off limits the application of state-of-the-art machine learning models in management problems, which requires high prediction performance, as well as the understanding of individual attributes' contributions to the model outcome. Multiple criteria decision aiding (MCDA) is a family of interpretable approaches to depicting the rationale of human decision behavior. It is also limited by strong assumptions (e.g. preference independence). In this paper, we propose an interpretable machine learning approach, namely Neural Network-based Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding (NN-MCDA), which combines an additive MCDA model and a fully-connected multilayer perceptron (MLP) to achieve good performance while preserving a certain degree of interpretability. NN-MCDA has a linear component (in an additive form of a set of polynomial functions) to capture the detailed relationship between individual attributes and the prediction, and a nonlinear component (in a standard MLP form) to capture the high-order interactions between attributes and their complex nonlinear transformations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of NN-MCDA with extensive simulation studies and two real-world datasets. To the best of our knowledge, this research is the first to enhance the interpretability of machine learning models with MCDA techniques. The proposed framework also sheds light on how to use machine learning techniques to free MCDA from strong assumptions.

This paper considers generalized linear models using rule-based features, also referred to as rule ensembles, for regression and probabilistic classification. Rules facilitate model interpretation while also capturing nonlinear dependences and interactions. Our problem formulation accordingly trades off rule set complexity and prediction accuracy. Column generation is used to optimize over an exponentially large space of rules without pre-generating a large subset of candidates or greedily boosting rules one by one. The column generation subproblem is solved using either integer programming or a heuristic optimizing the same objective. In experiments involving logistic and linear regression, the proposed methods obtain better accuracy-complexity trade-offs than existing rule ensemble algorithms. At one end of the trade-off, the methods are competitive with less interpretable benchmark models.

We study methods for simultaneous analysis of many noisy experiments in the presence of rich covariate information. The goal of the analyst is to optimally estimate the true effect underlying each experiment. Both the noisy experimental results and the auxiliary covariates are useful for this purpose, but neither data source on its own captures all the information available to the analyst. In this paper, we propose a flexible plug-in empirical Bayes estimator that synthesizes both sources of information and may leverage any black-box predictive model. We show that our approach is within a constant factor of minimax for a simple data-generating model. Furthermore, we establish robust convergence guarantees for our method that hold under considerable generality, and exhibit promising empirical performance on both real and simulated data.

Satellite-based positioning system such as GPS often suffers from large amount of noise that degrades the positioning accuracy dramatically especially in real-time applications. In this work, we consider a data-mining approach to enhance the GPS signal. We build a large-scale high precision GPS receiver grid system to collect real-time GPS signals for training. The Gaussian Process (GP) regression is chosen to model the vertical Total Electron Content (vTEC) distribution of the ionosphere of the Earth. Our experiments show that the noise in the real-time GPS signals often exceeds the breakdown point of the conventional robust regression methods resulting in sub-optimal system performance. We propose a three-step approach to address this challenge. In the first step we perform a set of signal validity tests to separate the signals into clean and dirty groups. In the second step, we train an initial model on the clean signals and then reweigting the dirty signals based on the residual error. A final model is retrained on both the clean signals and the reweighted dirty signals. In the theoretical analysis, we prove that the proposed three-step approach is able to tolerate much higher noise level than the vanilla robust regression methods if two reweighting rules are followed. We validate the superiority of the proposed method in our real-time high precision positioning system against several popular state-of-the-art robust regression methods. Our method achieves centimeter positioning accuracy in the benchmark region with probability $78.4\%$ , outperforming the second best baseline method by a margin of $8.3\%$. The benchmark takes 6 hours on 20,000 CPU cores or 14 years on a single CPU.

The problem of market clearing is to set a price for an item such that quantity demanded equals quantity supplied. In this work, we cast the problem of predicting clearing prices into a learning framework and use the resulting models to perform revenue optimization in auctions and markets with contextual information. The economic intuition behind market clearing allows us to obtain fine-grained control over the aggressiveness of the resulting pricing policy, grounded in theory. To evaluate our approach, we fit a model of clearing prices over a massive dataset of bids in display ad auctions from a major ad exchange. The learned prices outperform other modeling techniques in the literature in terms of revenue and efficiency trade-offs. Because of the convex nature of the clearing loss function, the convergence rate of our method is as fast as linear regression.