We consider selection of random predictors for high-dimensional regression problem with binary response for a general loss function. Important special case is when the binary model is semiparametric and the response function is misspecified under parametric model fit. Selection for such a scenario aims at recovering the support of the minimizer of the associated risk with large probability. We propose a two-step selection procedure which consists of screening and ordering predictors by Lasso method and then selecting a subset of predictors which minimizes Generalized Information Criterion on the corresponding nested family of models. We prove consistency of the selection method under conditions which allow for much larger number of predictors than number of observations. For the semiparametric case when distribution of random predictors satisfies linear regression conditions the true and the estimated parameters are collinear and their common support can be consistently identified.

In experimental design, we are given $n$ vectors in $d$ dimensions, and our goal is to select $k\ll n$ of them to perform expensive measurements, e.g., to obtain labels/responses, for a linear regression task. Many statistical criteria have been proposed for choosing the optimal design, with popular choices including A- and D-optimality. If prior knowledge is given, typically in the form of a $d\times d$ precision matrix $\mathbf A$, then all of the criteria can be extended to incorporate that information via a Bayesian framework. In this paper, we demonstrate a new fundamental connection between Bayesian experimental design and determinantal point processes, the latter being widely used for sampling diverse subsets of data. We use this connection to develop new efficient algorithms for finding $(1+\epsilon)$-approximations of optimal designs under four optimality criteria: A, C, D and V. Our algorithms can achieve this when the desired subset size $k$ is $\Omega(\frac{d_{\mathbf A}}{\epsilon} + \frac{\log 1/\epsilon}{\epsilon^2})$, where $d_{\mathbf A}\leq d$ is the $\mathbf A$-effective dimension, which can often be much smaller than $d$. Our results offer direct improvements over a number of prior works, for both Bayesian and classical experimental design, in terms of algorithm efficiency, approximation quality, and range of applicable criteria.

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) in both contextual bandits and reinforcement learning allows one to evaluate novel decision policies without needing to conduct exploration, which is often costly or otherwise infeasible. The problem's importance has attracted many proposed solutions, including importance sampling (IS), self-normalized IS (SNIS), and doubly robust (DR) estimates. DR and its variants ensure semiparametric local efficiency if Q-functions are well-specified, but if they are not they can be worse than both IS and SNIS. It also does not enjoy SNIS's inherent stability and boundedness. We propose new estimators for OPE based on empirical likelihood that are always more efficient than IS, SNIS, and DR and satisfy the same stability and boundedness properties as SNIS. On the way, we categorize various properties and classify existing estimators by them. Besides the theoretical guarantees, empirical studies suggest the new estimators provide advantages.

Accurate estimation of the run time of computational codes has a number of significant advantages for scientific computing. It is required information for optimal resource allocation, improving turnaround times and utilization of science gateways. Furthermore, it allows users to better plan and schedule their research, streamlining workflows and improving the overall productivity of cyberinfrastructure. Predicting run time is challenging, however. The inputs to scientific codes can be complex and high dimensional. Their relationship to the run time may be highly non-linear, and, in the most general case is completely arbitrary and thus unpredictable (i.e., simply a random mapping from inputs to run time). Most codes are not so arbitrary, however, and there has been significant prior research on predicting the run time of applications and workloads. Such predictions are generally application-specific, however. In this paper, we focus on the Gaussian computational chemistry code. We characterize a data set of runs from the SEAGrid science gateway with a number of different studies. We also explore a number of different potential regression methods and present promising future directions.

Other authors suggest that specific margin instances Forests (Breiman, 2001) and rotation forests (Rodriguez hold a clue to better generalization (Shen and Li, et al., 2006), create a set of weak classifiers from 2010; Wang et al., 2011, 2012). In this article, we design a base learning algorithm B, which are typically decision algorithms to empirically test whether the state of research trees, then combine the predictions from the classifiers in in the explanation of ensemble performance translates into the form of a weighted vote, to produce an improved prediction better performing algorithms. We do not question the theoretical compared to individual classifiers (Drucker et al., soundness of the generalization error bounds, but 1994; Dietterich, 2000; Breiman, 2001; Maclin and Opitz, simply test whether evidence suggests that better performing 2011). Upper bounds based on the sample margins of the ensemble algorithms can be derived from the practical ensemble provide some explanation on why ensembles perform interpretations of the bounds. In the next section we discuss as well as they do. Schapire et al. (1998) first pointed margins, the generalization error bounds based on the to margins as a key determinant of ensemble performance.

Magnetoencephalography and electroencephalography (M/EEG) can reveal neuronal dynamics non-invasively in real-time and are therefore appreciated methods in medicine and neuroscience. Recent advances in modeling brain-behavior relationships have highlighted the effectiveness of Riemannian geometry for summarizing the spatially correlated time-series from M/EEG in terms of their covariance. However, after artefact-suppression, M/EEG data is often rank deficient which limits the application of Riemannian concepts. In this article, we focus on the task of regression with rank-reduced covariance matrices. We study two Riemannian approaches that vectorize the M/EEG covariance between-sensors through projection into a tangent space. The Wasserstein distance readily applies to rank-reduced data but lacks affine-invariance. This can be overcome by finding a common subspace in which the covariance matrices are full rank, enabling the affine-invariant geometric distance. We investigated the implications of these two approaches in synthetic generative models, which allowed us to control estimation bias of a linear model for prediction. We show that Wasserstein and geometric distances allow perfect out-of-sample prediction on the generative models. We then evaluated the methods on real data with regard to their effectiveness in predicting age from M/EEG covariance matrices. The findings suggest that the data-driven Riemannian methods outperform different sensor-space estimators and that they get close to the performance of biophysics-driven source-localization model that requires MRI acquisitions and tedious data processing. Our study suggests that the proposed Riemannian methods can serve as fundamental building-blocks for automated large-scale analysis of M/EEG.

We address the task of identifying densely connected subsets of multivariate Gaussian random variables within a graphical model framework. We propose two novel estimators based on the Ordered Weighted $\ell_1$ (OWL) norm: 1) The Graphical OWL (GOWL) is a penalized likelihood method that applies the OWL norm to the lower triangle components of the precision matrix. 2) The column-by-column Graphical OWL (ccGOWL) estimates the precision matrix by performing OWL regularized linear regressions. Both methods can simultaneously identify highly correlated groups of variables and control the sparsity in the resulting precision matrix. We formulate GOWL such that it solves a composite optimization problem and establish that the estimator has a unique global solution. In addition, we prove sufficient grouping conditions for each column of the ccGOWL precision matrix estimate. We propose proximal descent algorithms to find the optimum for both estimators. For synthetic data where group structure is present, the ccGOWL estimator requires significantly reduced computation and achieves similar or greater accuracy than state-of-the-art estimators. Timing comparisons are presented and demonstrates the superior computational efficiency of the ccGOWL. We illustrate the grouping performance of the ccGOWL method on a cancer gene expression data set and an equities data set.

We consider the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects with arbitrary machine learning methods in the presence of unobserved confounders with the aid of a valid instrument. Such settings arise in A/B tests with an intent-to-treat structure, where the experimenter randomizes over which user will receive a recommendation to take an action, and we are interested in the effect of the downstream action. We develop a statistical learning approach to the estimation of heterogeneous effects, reducing the problem to the minimization of an appropriate loss function that depends on a set of auxiliary models (each corresponding to a separate prediction task). The reduction enables the use of all recent algorithmic advances (e.g. neural nets, forests). We show that the estimated effect model is robust to estimation errors in the auxiliary models, by showing that the loss satisfies a Neyman orthogonality criterion. Our approach can be used to estimate projections of the true effect model on simpler hypothesis spaces. When these spaces are parametric, then the parameter estimates are asymptotically normal, which enables construction of confidence sets. We applied our method to estimate the effect of membership on downstream webpage engagement on TripAdvisor, using as an instrument an intent-to-treat A/B test among 4 million TripAdvisor users, where some users received an easier membership sign-up process. We also validate our method on synthetic data and on public datasets for the effects of schooling on income.

Many machine learning problems reduce to the problem of minimizing an expected risk, defined as the sum of a large number of, often convex, component functions. Iterative gradient methods are popular techniques for the above problems. However, they are in general slow to converge, in particular for large data sets. In this work, we develop analysis for selecting a subset (or sketch) of training data points with their corresponding learning rates in order to provide faster convergence to a close neighbordhood of the optimal solution. We show that subsets that minimize the upper-bound on the estimation error of the full gradient, maximize a submodular facility location function. As a result, by greedily maximizing the facility location function we obtain subsets that yield faster convergence to a close neighborhood of the optimum solution. We demonstrate the real-world effectiveness of our algorithm, SIG, confirming our analysis, through an extensive set of experiments on several applications, including logistic regression and training neural networks. We also include a method that provides a deliberate deterministic ordering of the data subset that is quite effective in practice. We observe that our method, while achieving practically the same loss, speeds up gradient methods by up to 10x for convex and 3x for non-convex (deep) functions.

Linear regression is a common technique used in the association study between the targeted outcome and some potential risk factors (e.g., age, sex). The violation of the normality assumption sometimes may be attributed by the skewed nature of the dependent variable and may be a concern for naturally skewed outcome variables, such as best corrected visual acuity, 1 refractive error, 2 and Rasch score. Normality violation will affect the estimates of the standard error (SE) and the confidence interval, and hence the significance of the risk factors. Nonparametric regression model or bootstrap techniques are suggested to be performed as they provide more robust estimates of SE. However, nonparametric techniques require large sample sizes to supply; the model structure, and are very sensitive to the outliers. Thus, a key question is whether simple linear regression modeling still is valid if the "normality assumption" is violated.