We propose a novel method for explaining the predictions of any classifier. In our approach, local explanations are expected to explain both the outcome of a prediction and how that prediction would change if 'things had been different'. Furthermore, we argue that satisfactory explanations cannot be dissociated from a notion and measure of fidelity, as advocated in the early days of neural networks' knowledge extraction. We introduce a definition of fidelity to the underlying classifier for local explanation models which is based on distances to a target decision boundary. A system called CLEAR: Counterfactual Local Explanations via Regression, is introduced and evaluated. CLEAR generates w-counterfactual explanations that state minimum changes necessary to flip a prediction's classification. CLEAR then builds local regression models, using the w-counterfactuals to measure and improve the fidelity of its regressions. By contrast, the popular LIME method, which also uses regression to generate local explanations, neither measures its own fidelity nor generates counterfactuals. CLEAR's regressions are found to have significantly higher fidelity than LIME's, averaging over 45% higher in this paper's four case studies.

Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, which are highly complex to model. The research on the advancement of flood prediction models contributed to risk reduction, policy suggestion, minimization of the loss of human life, and reduction the property damage associated with floods. To mimic the complex mathematical expressions of physical processes of floods, during the past two decades, machine learning (ML) methods contributed highly in the advancement of prediction systems providing better performance and cost-effective solutions. Due to the vast benefits and potential of ML, its popularity dramatically increased among hydrologists. Researchers through introducing novel ML methods and hybridizing of the existing ones aim at discovering more accurate and efficient prediction models. The main contribution of this paper is to demonstrate the state of the art of ML models in flood prediction and to give insight into the most suitable models. In this paper, the literature where ML models were benchmarked through a qualitative analysis of robustness, accuracy, effectiveness, and speed are particularly investigated to provide an extensive overview on the various ML algorithms used in the field. The performance comparison of ML models presents an in-depth understanding of the different techniques within the framework of a comprehensive evaluation and discussion. As a result, this paper introduces the most promising prediction methods for both long-term and short-term floods. Furthermore, the major trends in improving the quality of the flood prediction models are investigated. Among them, hybridization, data decomposition, algorithm ensemble, and model optimization are reported as the most effective strategies for the improvement of ML methods.

Standard methods in supervised learning separate training and prediction: the model is fit independently of any test points it may encounter. However, can knowledge of the next test point $\mathbf{x}_{\star}$ be exploited to improve prediction accuracy? We address this question in the context of linear prediction, showing how debiasing techniques can be used transductively to combat regularization bias. We first lower bound the $\mathbf{x}_{\star}$ prediction error of ridge regression and the Lasso, showing that they must incur significant bias in certain test directions. Then, building on techniques from semi-parametric inference, we provide non-asymptotic upper bounds on the $\mathbf{x}_{\star}$ prediction error of two transductive, debiased prediction rules. We conclude by showing the efficacy of our methods on both synthetic and real data, highlighting the improvements test-point-tailored debiasing can provide in settings with distribution shift.

Leveraging the wealth of unlabeled data produced in recent years provides great potential for improving supervised models. When the cost of acquiring labels is high, probabilistic active learning methods can be used to greedily select the most informative data points to be labeled. However, for many large-scale problems standard greedy procedures become computationally infeasible and suffer from negligible model change. In this paper, we introduce a novel Bayesian batch active learning approach that mitigates these issues. Our approach is motivated by approximating the complete data posterior of the model parameters. While naive batch construction methods result in correlated queries, our algorithm produces diverse batches that enable efficient active learning at scale. We derive interpretable closed-form solutions akin to existing active learning procedures for linear models, and generalize to arbitrary models using random projections. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach on several large-scale regression and classification tasks.

Evaluating novel contextual bandit policies using logged data is crucial in applications where exploration is costly, such as medicine. But it usually relies on the assumption of no unobserved confounders, which is bound to fail in practice. We study the question of policy evaluation when we instead have proxies for the latent confounders and develop an importance weighting method that avoids fitting a latent outcome regression model. We show that unlike the unconfounded case no single set of weights can give unbiased evaluation for all outcome models, yet we propose a new algorithm that can still provably guarantee consistency by instead minimizing an adversarial balance objective. We further develop tractable algorithms for optimizing this objective and demonstrate empirically the power of our method when confounders are latent.

Regression analysis is one of the most demanding machine learning methods in 2019. One group of regression analysis for measuring effects and to evaluate a policy program is Interrupted Time Series. This method is well suited for benchmarking and finding improvements for optimization in organizations. It can, therefore, be used to design organizations so they generate more value for employees and customers. In this article, you learn how to do Interrupted Time Series in R. Program evaluation is the selection of outcomes of a program or policy, evaluated by a set of standards as a means to investigate if the program or policy contributes to improvement in a desired goal or result. The main goal of program evaluation is, therefore, to investigate if the policy change contributes to the improvement of the program.

Simultaneous inference after model selection is of critical importance to address scientific hypotheses involving a set of parameters. In this paper, we consider high-dimensional linear regression model in which a regularization procedure such as LASSO is applied to yield a sparse model. To establish a simultaneous post-model selection inference, we propose a method of contraction and expansion (MOCE) along the line of debiasing estimation that enables us to balance the bias-and-variance trade-off so that the super-sparsity assumption may be relaxed. We establish key theoretical results for the proposed MOCE procedure from which the expanded model can be selected with theoretical guarantees and simultaneous confidence regions can be constructed by the joint asymptotic normal distribution. In comparison with existing methods, our proposed method exhibits stable and reliable coverage at a nominal significance level with substantially less computational burden, and thus it is trustworthy for its application in solving real-world problems.

Data science with the kind of power it gives you to analyze each and every bit of data you have at your disposal, to make smart & intelligent business decisions, is becoming a must have tool to understand and implement in your organization, it is very important that your business decisions are not based on intuition rather based on data analysis. "Data which you have in your repository is a gold mine, which needs to be harnessed with an intent to serve the humanity at large, as they are the key source of the same data. Data has a story to tell. Being a data engineer and a business leader it's your primary responsibility to treat them well, process it with appropriate ML model and build a solution which is relevant for both current and future user needs. With this intent, let's begin our journey of understanding supervised ML using Linear Regression model.

After admission to emergency department (ED), patients with critical illnesses are transferred to intensive care unit (ICU) due to unexpected clinical deterioration occurrence. Identifying such unplanned ICU transfers is urgently needed for medical physicians to achieve two-fold goals: improving critical care quality and preventing mortality. A priority task is to understand the crucial rationale behind diagnosis results of individual patients during stay in ED, which helps prepare for an early transfer to ICU. Most existing prediction studies were based on univariate analysis or multiple logistic regression to provide one-size-fit-all results. However, patient condition varying from case to case may not be accurately examined by the only judgment. In this study, we present a new decision tool using a mathematical optimization approach aiming to automatically discover rules associating diagnostic features with high-risk outcome (i.e., unplanned transfers) in different deterioration scenarios. We consider four mutually exclusive patient subgroups based on the principal reasons of ED visits: infections, cardiovascular/respiratory diseases, gastrointestinal diseases, and neurological/other diseases at a suburban teaching hospital. The analysis results demonstrate significant rules associated with unplanned transfer outcome for each subgroups and also show comparable prediction accuracy, compared to state-of-the-art machine learning methods while providing easy-to-interpret symptom-outcome information.

In this paper, we present a differential privacy version of convex and nonconvex sparse classification approach. Based on alternating direction method of multiplier (ADMM) algorithm, we transform the solving of sparse problem into the multistep iteration process. Then we add exponential noise to stable steps to achieve privacy protection. By the property of the post-processing holding of differential privacy, the proposed approach satisfies the $\epsilon-$differential privacy even when the original problem is unstable. Furthermore, we present the theoretical privacy bound of the differential privacy classification algorithm. Specifically, the privacy bound of our algorithm is controlled by the algorithm iteration number, the privacy parameter, the parameter of loss function, ADMM pre-selected parameter, and the data size. Finally we apply our framework to logistic regression with $L_1$ regularizer and logistic regression with $L_{1/2}$ regularizer. Numerical studies demonstrate that our method is both effective and efficient which performs well in sensitive data analysis.