Standard methods in supervised learning separate training and prediction: the model is fit independently of any test points it may encounter. However, can knowledge of the next test point $\mathbf{x}_{\star}$ be exploited to improve prediction accuracy? We address this question in the context of linear prediction, showing how debiasing techniques can be used transductively to combat regularization bias. We first lower bound the $\mathbf{x}_{\star}$ prediction error of ridge regression and the Lasso, showing that they must incur significant bias in certain test directions. Then, building on techniques from semi-parametric inference, we provide non-asymptotic upper bounds on the $\mathbf{x}_{\star}$ prediction error of two transductive, debiased prediction rules. We conclude by showing the efficacy of our methods on both synthetic and real data, highlighting the improvements test-point-tailored debiasing can provide in settings with distribution shift.

Leveraging the wealth of unlabeled data produced in recent years provides great potential for improving supervised models. When the cost of acquiring labels is high, probabilistic active learning methods can be used to greedily select the most informative data points to be labeled. However, for many large-scale problems standard greedy procedures become computationally infeasible and suffer from negligible model change. In this paper, we introduce a novel Bayesian batch active learning approach that mitigates these issues. Our approach is motivated by approximating the complete data posterior of the model parameters. While naive batch construction methods result in correlated queries, our algorithm produces diverse batches that enable efficient active learning at scale. We derive interpretable closed-form solutions akin to existing active learning procedures for linear models, and generalize to arbitrary models using random projections. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach on several large-scale regression and classification tasks.

Evaluating novel contextual bandit policies using logged data is crucial in applications where exploration is costly, such as medicine. But it usually relies on the assumption of no unobserved confounders, which is bound to fail in practice. We study the question of policy evaluation when we instead have proxies for the latent confounders and develop an importance weighting method that avoids fitting a latent outcome regression model. We show that unlike the unconfounded case no single set of weights can give unbiased evaluation for all outcome models, yet we propose a new algorithm that can still provably guarantee consistency by instead minimizing an adversarial balance objective. We further develop tractable algorithms for optimizing this objective and demonstrate empirically the power of our method when confounders are latent.

Regression analysis is one of the most demanding machine learning methods in 2019. One group of regression analysis for measuring effects and to evaluate a policy program is Interrupted Time Series. This method is well suited for benchmarking and finding improvements for optimization in organizations. It can, therefore, be used to design organizations so they generate more value for employees and customers. In this article, you learn how to do Interrupted Time Series in R. Program evaluation is the selection of outcomes of a program or policy, evaluated by a set of standards as a means to investigate if the program or policy contributes to improvement in a desired goal or result. The main goal of program evaluation is, therefore, to investigate if the policy change contributes to the improvement of the program.

Simultaneous inference after model selection is of critical importance to address scientific hypotheses involving a set of parameters. In this paper, we consider high-dimensional linear regression model in which a regularization procedure such as LASSO is applied to yield a sparse model. To establish a simultaneous post-model selection inference, we propose a method of contraction and expansion (MOCE) along the line of debiasing estimation that enables us to balance the bias-and-variance trade-off so that the super-sparsity assumption may be relaxed. We establish key theoretical results for the proposed MOCE procedure from which the expanded model can be selected with theoretical guarantees and simultaneous confidence regions can be constructed by the joint asymptotic normal distribution. In comparison with existing methods, our proposed method exhibits stable and reliable coverage at a nominal significance level with substantially less computational burden, and thus it is trustworthy for its application in solving real-world problems.

Data science with the kind of power it gives you to analyze each and every bit of data you have at your disposal, to make smart & intelligent business decisions, is becoming a must have tool to understand and implement in your organization, it is very important that your business decisions are not based on intuition rather based on data analysis. "Data which you have in your repository is a gold mine, which needs to be harnessed with an intent to serve the humanity at large, as they are the key source of the same data. Data has a story to tell. Being a data engineer and a business leader it's your primary responsibility to treat them well, process it with appropriate ML model and build a solution which is relevant for both current and future user needs. With this intent, let's begin our journey of understanding supervised ML using Linear Regression model.

After admission to emergency department (ED), patients with critical illnesses are transferred to intensive care unit (ICU) due to unexpected clinical deterioration occurrence. Identifying such unplanned ICU transfers is urgently needed for medical physicians to achieve two-fold goals: improving critical care quality and preventing mortality. A priority task is to understand the crucial rationale behind diagnosis results of individual patients during stay in ED, which helps prepare for an early transfer to ICU. Most existing prediction studies were based on univariate analysis or multiple logistic regression to provide one-size-fit-all results. However, patient condition varying from case to case may not be accurately examined by the only judgment. In this study, we present a new decision tool using a mathematical optimization approach aiming to automatically discover rules associating diagnostic features with high-risk outcome (i.e., unplanned transfers) in different deterioration scenarios. We consider four mutually exclusive patient subgroups based on the principal reasons of ED visits: infections, cardiovascular/respiratory diseases, gastrointestinal diseases, and neurological/other diseases at a suburban teaching hospital. The analysis results demonstrate significant rules associated with unplanned transfer outcome for each subgroups and also show comparable prediction accuracy, compared to state-of-the-art machine learning methods while providing easy-to-interpret symptom-outcome information.

In this paper, we present a differential privacy version of convex and nonconvex sparse classification approach. Based on alternating direction method of multiplier (ADMM) algorithm, we transform the solving of sparse problem into the multistep iteration process. Then we add exponential noise to stable steps to achieve privacy protection. By the property of the post-processing holding of differential privacy, the proposed approach satisfies the $\epsilon-$differential privacy even when the original problem is unstable. Furthermore, we present the theoretical privacy bound of the differential privacy classification algorithm. Specifically, the privacy bound of our algorithm is controlled by the algorithm iteration number, the privacy parameter, the parameter of loss function, ADMM pre-selected parameter, and the data size. Finally we apply our framework to logistic regression with $L_1$ regularizer and logistic regression with $L_{1/2}$ regularizer. Numerical studies demonstrate that our method is both effective and efficient which performs well in sensitive data analysis.

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a framework for black-box optimization that is especially suitable for expensive cost functions. Among the main parts of a BO algorithm, the acquisition function is of fundamental importance, since it guides the optimization algorithm by translating the uncertainty of the regression model in a utility measure for each point to be evaluated. Considering such aspect, selection and design of acquisition functions are one of the most popular research topics in BO. Since no single acquisition function was proved to have better performance in all tasks, a well-established approach consists of selecting different acquisition functions along the iterations of a BO execution. In such an approach, the GP-Hedge algorithm is a widely used option given its simplicity and good performance. Despite its success in various applications, GP-Hedge shows an undesirable characteristic of accounting on all past performance measures of each acquisition function to select the next function to be used. In this case, good or bad values obtained in an initial iteration may impact the choice of the acquisition function for the rest of the algorithm. This fact may induce a dominant behavior of an acquisition function and impact the final performance of the method. Aiming to overcome such limitation, in this work we propose a variant of GP-Hedge, named No-PASt-BO, that reduce the influence of far past evaluations. Moreover, our method presents a built-in normalization that avoids the functions in the portfolio to have similar probabilities, thus improving the exploration. The obtained results on both synthetic and real-world optimization tasks indicate that No-PASt-BO presents competitive performance and always outperforms GP-Hedge.

The recent decades have seen a surge of interests in distributed computing. Existing work focus primarily on either distributed computing platforms, data query tools, or, algorithms to divide big data and conquer at individual machines etc. It is, however, increasingly often that the data of interest are inherently distributed, i.e., data are stored at multiple distributed sites due to diverse collection channels, business operations etc. We propose to enable learning and inference in such a setting via a general framework based on the distortion minimizing local transformations. This framework only requires a small amount of local signatures to be shared among distributed sites, eliminating the need of having to transmitting big data. Computation can be done very efficiently via parallel local computation. The error incurred due to distributed computing vanishes when increasing the size of local signatures. As the shared data need not be in their original form, data privacy may also be preserved. Experiments on linear (logistic) regression and Random Forests have shown promise of this approach. This framework is expected to apply to a general class of tools in learning and inference with the continuity property.