Regression
Machine Learning for CEOs
When I worked as a McKinsey consultant, I served the CEO of a bank regarding his small business strategy. I wanted to run regressions on the bank's data but I was advised against it: "They don't even understand statistics. How are you going to explain a regression to them?". CEOs have always needed to deeply understand human intelligence and emotion to manage enterprise teams. Now machines and algorithms are increasingly becoming part of these very teams.
Unsupervised Pool-Based Active Learning for Linear Regression
In many real-world machine learning applications, unlabeled data can be easily obtained, but it is very time-consuming and/or expensive to label them. So, it is desirable to be able to select the optimal samples to label, so that a good machine learning model can be trained from a minimum amount of labeled data. Active learning (AL) has been widely used for this purpose. However, most existing AL approaches are supervised: they train an initial model from a small amount of labeled samples, query new samples based on the model, and then update the model iteratively. Few of them have considered the completely unsupervised AL problem, i.e., starting from zero, how to optimally select the very first few samples to label, without knowing any label information at all. This problem is very challenging, as no label information can be utilized. This paper studies unsupervised pool-based AL for linear regression problems. We propose a novel AL approach that considers simultaneously the informativeness, representativeness, and diversity, three essential criteria in AL. Extensive experiments on 14 datasets from various application domains, using three different linear regression models (ridge regression, LASSO, and linear support vector regression), demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed approach.
Private Machine Learning via Randomised Response
We introduce a general learning framework for private machine learning based on randomised response. Our assumption is that all actors are potentially adversarial and as such we trust only to release a single noisy version of an individual's datapoint. We discuss a general approach that forms a consistent way to estimate the true underlying machine learning model and demonstrate this in the case of logistic regression.
Learning Overlapping Representations for the Estimation of Individualized Treatment Effects
Zhang, Yao, Bellot, Alexis, van der Schaar, Mihaela
The choice of making an intervention depends on its potential benefit or harm in comparison to alternatives. Estimating the likely outcome of alternatives from observational data is a challenging problem as all outcomes are never observed, and selection bias precludes the direct comparison of differently intervened groups. Despite their empirical success, we show that algorithms that learn domain-invariant representations of inputs (on which to make predictions) are often inappropriate, and develop generalization bounds that demonstrate the dependence on domain overlap and highlight the need for invertible latent maps. Based on these results, we develop a deep kernel regression algorithm and posterior regularization framework that substantially outperforms the state-of-the-art on a variety of benchmarks data sets.
Robust Gaussian Process Regression with a Bias Model
Park, Chiwoo, Borth, David J., Wilson, Nicholas S., Hunter, Chad N., Friedersdorf, Fritz J.
This paper presents a new approach to a robust Gaussian process (GP) regression. Most existing approaches replace an outlier-prone Gaussian likelihood with a non-Gaussian likelihood induced from a heavy tail distribution, such as the Laplace distribution and Student-t distribution. However, the use of a non-Gaussian likelihood would incur the need for a computationally expensive Bayesian approximate computation in the posterior inferences. The proposed approach models an outlier as a noisy and biased observation of an unknown regression function, and accordingly, the likelihood contains bias terms to explain the degree of deviations from the regression function. We entail how the biases can be estimated accurately with other hyperparameters by a regularized maximum likelihood estimation. Conditioned on the bias estimates, the robust GP regression can be reduced to a standard GP regression problem with analytical forms of the predictive mean and variance estimates. Therefore, the proposed approach is simple and very computationally attractive. It also gives a very robust and accurate GP estimate for many tested scenarios. For the numerical evaluation, we perform a comprehensive simulation study to evaluate the proposed approach with the comparison to the existing robust GP approaches under various simulated scenarios of different outlier proportions and different noise levels. The approach is applied to data from two measurement systems, where the predictors are based on robust environmental parameter measurements and the response variables utilize more complex chemical sensing methods that contain a certain percentage of outliers. The utility of the measurement systems and value of the environmental data are improved through the computationally efficient GP regression and bias model.
Top AI algorithms for Healthcare
Despite the variety of applications of AI in the clinical studies and healthcare services, they fall into two major categories: analysis of structured data, including images, genes and biomarkers, and analysis of unstructured data, such as notes, medical journals or patients' surveys to complement the structured data. The former approach is fueled by Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms, while the latter rest on the specialized Natural Language Processing practices. ML algorithms chiefly extract features from data, such as patients' "traits" and medical outcomes of interest. For a long time, AI in healthcare was dominated by the logistic regression, the most simple and common algorithm when it is necessary to classify things. It was easy to use, quick to finish and easy to interpret.
Trees, forests, and impurity-based variable importance
Tree ensemble methods such as random forests [Breiman, 2001] are very popular to handle high-dimensional tabular data sets, notably because of their good predictive accuracy. However, when machine learning is used for decision-making problems, settling for the best predictive procedures may not be reasonable since enlightened decisions require an in-depth comprehension of the algorithm prediction process. Unfortunately, random forests are not intrinsically interpretable since their prediction results from averaging several hundreds of decision trees. A classic approach to gain knowledge on this so-called black-box algorithm is to compute variable importances, that are employed to assess the predictive impact of each input variable. Variable importances are then used to rank or select variables and thus play a great role in data analysis. Nevertheless, there is no justification to use random forest variable importances in such way: we do not even know what these quantities estimate. In this paper, we analyze one of the two well-known random forest variable importances, the Mean Decrease Impurity (MDI). We prove that if input variables are independent and in absence of interactions, MDI provides a variance decomposition of the output, where the contribution of each variable is clearly identified. We also study models exhibiting dependence between input variables or interaction, for which the variable importance is intrinsically ill-defined. Our analysis shows that there may exist some benefits to use a forest compared to a single tree.
A Smooth Introduction to Linear Regression and its Implementation in PyTorch (Part-I)
The term linear regression might seem a bit complex at first, but don't worry, it is a simple but powerful concept. Let us go through an example to understand the concept better. I will throw some random data here and see what happens. Say that we have two variables h and r, that refer to the time of the day and how many pages a person read, respectively. Let's assume that the person starts reading at 9:00 AM and finishes at 2:00 PM.
Sample Complexity of Learning Mixture of Sparse Linear Regressions
Krishnamurthy, Akshay, Mazumdar, Arya, McGregor, Andrew, Pal, Soumyabrata
In the problem of learning mixtures of linear regressions, the goal is to learn a col-lection of signal vectors from a sequence of (possibly noisy) linear measurements,where each measurement is evaluated on an unknown signal drawn uniformly fromthis collection. This setting is quite expressive and has been studied both in termsof practical applications and for the sake of establishing theoretical guarantees. Inthis paper, we consider the case where the signal vectors aresparse; this generalizesthe popular compressed sensing paradigm. We improve upon the state-of-the-artresults as follows: In the noisy case, we resolve an open question of Yin et al. (IEEETransactions on Information Theory, 2019) by showing how to handle collectionsof more than two vectors and present the first robust reconstruction algorithm, i.e.,if the signals are not perfectly sparse, we still learn a good sparse approximationof the signals. In the noiseless case, as well as in the noisy case, we show how tocircumvent the need for a restrictive assumption required in the previous work.
WTH are R-squared and Adjusted R-squared?
Today I am going to explain the concept of R-squared and adjusted R-squared from the Machine Learning perspective. I'll also show you how to find the R-squared value of your ML model. It acts as an evaluation metric for regression models. To understand it better let me introduce a regression problem. Suppose I'm building a model to predict how many articles I will write in a particular month given the amount of free time I have on that month.