Understanding the pathways whereby an intervention has an effect on an outcome is a common scientific goal. A rich body of literature provides various decompositions of the total intervention effect into pathway specific effects. Interventional direct and indirect effects provide one such decomposition. Existing estimators of these effects are based on parametric models with confidence interval estimation facilitated via the nonparametric bootstrap. We provide theory that allows for more flexible, possibly machine learning-based, estimation techniques to be considered. In particular, we establish weak convergence results that facilitate the construction of closed-form confidence intervals and hypothesis tests. Finally, we demonstrate multiple robustness properties of the proposed estimators. Simulations show that inference based on large-sample theory has adequate small-sample performance. Our work thus provides a means of leveraging modern statistical learning techniques in estimation of interventional mediation effects.

Accurate and reliable forecasting of total cloud cover (TCC) is vital for many areas such as astronomy, energy demand and production, or agriculture. Most meteorological centres issue ensemble forecasts of TCC, however, these forecasts are often uncalibrated and exhibit worse forecast skill than ensemble forecasts of other weather variables. Hence, some form of post-processing is strongly required to improve predictive performance. As TCC observations are usually reported on a discrete scale taking just nine different values called oktas, statistical calibration of TCC ensemble forecasts can be considered a classification problem with outputs given by the probabilities of the oktas. This is a classical area where machine learning methods are applied. We investigate the performance of post-processing using multilayer percep-tron (MLP) neural networks, gradient boosting machines (GBM) and random forest (RF) methods. Based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global TCC ensemble forecasts for 2002-2014 we compare these approaches with the proportional odds logistic regression (POLR) and multiclass logistic regression (MLR) models, as well as the raw TCC ensemble forecasts. We further assess whether improvements in forecast skill can be obtained by incorporating ensemble forecasts of precipitation as additional predictor. Compared to the raw ensemble, all calibration methods result in a significant improvement in forecast skill. RF models provide the smallest increase in predictive performance, while MLP, POLR and GBM approaches perform best. Key words: ensemble calibration; gradient boosting machine; logistic regression; mul-tilayer perceptron; random forest; total cloud cover 1 Introduction Reliable and accurate prediction of total cloud cover (TCC) has a principal importance in observational astronomy (Ye and Chen, 2013) and in the prediction of photovoltaic energy production, as it is the main cause of variation in solar-radiation energy supply (Matuszko, 2012; McEvoy et al., 2012), but it is also of great relevance in agriculture, tourism and in some other fields of economy.

Recently, the emergence of the #MeToo trend on social media has empowered thousands of people to share their own sexual harassment experiences. This viral trend, in conjunction with the massive personal information and content available on Twitter, presents a promising opportunity to extract data driven insights to complement the ongoing survey based studies about sexual harassment in college. In this paper, we analyze the influence of the #MeToo trend on a pool of college followers. The results show that the majority of topics embedded in those #MeToo tweets detail sexual harassment stories, and there exists a significant correlation between the prevalence of this trend and official reports on several major geographical regions. Furthermore, we discover the outstanding sentiments of the #MeToo tweets using deep semantic meaning representations and their implications on the affected users experiencing different types of sexual harassment. We hope this study can raise further awareness regarding sexual misconduct in academia.

Students who have at least high school knowledge in math and who want to start learning Machine Learning. Any intermediate level people who know the basics of machine learning, including the classical algorithms like linear regression or logistic regression, but who want to learn more about it and explore all the different fields of Machine Learning. Any people who are not that comfortable with coding but who are interested in Machine Learning and want to apply it easily on datasets. Anyone willing to learn machine learning on Google cloud platform. Any students in college who want to start a career in Data Science. Any data analysts who want to level up in Machine Learning.

When I worked as a McKinsey consultant, I served the CEO of a bank regarding his small business strategy. I wanted to run regressions on the bank's data but I was advised against it: "They don't even understand statistics. How are you going to explain a regression to them?". CEOs have always needed to deeply understand human intelligence and emotion to manage enterprise teams. Now machines and algorithms are increasingly becoming part of these very teams.

In many real-world machine learning applications, unlabeled data can be easily obtained, but it is very time-consuming and/or expensive to label them. So, it is desirable to be able to select the optimal samples to label, so that a good machine learning model can be trained from a minimum amount of labeled data. Active learning (AL) has been widely used for this purpose. However, most existing AL approaches are supervised: they train an initial model from a small amount of labeled samples, query new samples based on the model, and then update the model iteratively. Few of them have considered the completely unsupervised AL problem, i.e., starting from zero, how to optimally select the very first few samples to label, without knowing any label information at all. This problem is very challenging, as no label information can be utilized. This paper studies unsupervised pool-based AL for linear regression problems. We propose a novel AL approach that considers simultaneously the informativeness, representativeness, and diversity, three essential criteria in AL. Extensive experiments on 14 datasets from various application domains, using three different linear regression models (ridge regression, LASSO, and linear support vector regression), demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

We introduce a general learning framework for private machine learning based on randomised response. Our assumption is that all actors are potentially adversarial and as such we trust only to release a single noisy version of an individual's datapoint. We discuss a general approach that forms a consistent way to estimate the true underlying machine learning model and demonstrate this in the case of logistic regression.

The choice of making an intervention depends on its potential benefit or harm in comparison to alternatives. Estimating the likely outcome of alternatives from observational data is a challenging problem as all outcomes are never observed, and selection bias precludes the direct comparison of differently intervened groups. Despite their empirical success, we show that algorithms that learn domain-invariant representations of inputs (on which to make predictions) are often inappropriate, and develop generalization bounds that demonstrate the dependence on domain overlap and highlight the need for invertible latent maps. Based on these results, we develop a deep kernel regression algorithm and posterior regularization framework that substantially outperforms the state-of-the-art on a variety of benchmarks data sets.

This paper presents a new approach to a robust Gaussian process (GP) regression. Most existing approaches replace an outlier-prone Gaussian likelihood with a non-Gaussian likelihood induced from a heavy tail distribution, such as the Laplace distribution and Student-t distribution. However, the use of a non-Gaussian likelihood would incur the need for a computationally expensive Bayesian approximate computation in the posterior inferences. The proposed approach models an outlier as a noisy and biased observation of an unknown regression function, and accordingly, the likelihood contains bias terms to explain the degree of deviations from the regression function. We entail how the biases can be estimated accurately with other hyperparameters by a regularized maximum likelihood estimation. Conditioned on the bias estimates, the robust GP regression can be reduced to a standard GP regression problem with analytical forms of the predictive mean and variance estimates. Therefore, the proposed approach is simple and very computationally attractive. It also gives a very robust and accurate GP estimate for many tested scenarios. For the numerical evaluation, we perform a comprehensive simulation study to evaluate the proposed approach with the comparison to the existing robust GP approaches under various simulated scenarios of different outlier proportions and different noise levels. The approach is applied to data from two measurement systems, where the predictors are based on robust environmental parameter measurements and the response variables utilize more complex chemical sensing methods that contain a certain percentage of outliers. The utility of the measurement systems and value of the environmental data are improved through the computationally efficient GP regression and bias model.

Despite the variety of applications of AI in the clinical studies and healthcare services, they fall into two major categories: analysis of structured data, including images, genes and biomarkers, and analysis of unstructured data, such as notes, medical journals or patients' surveys to complement the structured data. The former approach is fueled by Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms, while the latter rest on the specialized Natural Language Processing practices. ML algorithms chiefly extract features from data, such as patients' "traits" and medical outcomes of interest. For a long time, AI in healthcare was dominated by the logistic regression, the most simple and common algorithm when it is necessary to classify things. It was easy to use, quick to finish and easy to interpret.