The continuous expansion of the urban traffic sensing infrastructure has led to a surge in the volume of widely available road related data. Consequently, increasing effort is being dedicated to the creation of intelligent transportation systems, where decisions on issues ranging from city-wide road maintenance planning to improving the commuting experience are informed by computational models of urban traffic instead of being left entirely to humans. The automation of traffic management has received substantial attention from the research community, however, most approaches target highways, produce predictions valid for a limited time window or require expensive retraining of available models in order to accurately forecast traffic at a new location. In this article, we propose a novel and accurate traffic flow prediction method based on symbolic regression enhanced with a lag operator. Our approach produces robust models suitable for the intricacies of urban roads, much more difficult to predict than highways. Additionally, there is no need to retrain the model for a period of up to 9 weeks. Furthermore, the proposed method generates models that are transferable to other segments of the road network, similar to, yet geographically distinct from the ones they were initially trained on. We demonstrate the achievement of these claims by conducting extensive experiments on data collected from the Darmstadt urban infrastructure.

For multi-valued functions---such as when the conditional distribution on targets given the inputs is multi-modal---standard regression approaches are not always desirable because they provide the conditional mean. Modal regression aims to instead find the conditional mode, but is restricted to nonparametric approaches. Such methods can be difficult to scale, and cannot benefit from parametric function approximation, like neural networks, which can learn complex relationships between inputs and targets. In this work, we propose a parametric modal regression algorithm, by using the implicit function theorem to develop an objective for learning a joint parameterized function over inputs and targets. We empirically demonstrate on several synthetic problems that our method (i) can learn multi-valued functions and produce the conditional modes, (ii) scales well to high-dimensional inputs and (iii) is even more effective for certain uni-modal problems, particularly for high frequency data where the joint function over inputs and targets can better capture the complex relationship between them. We then demonstrate that our method is practically useful in a real-world modal regression problem. We conclude by showing that our method provides small improvements on two regression datasets that have asymmetric distributions over the targets.

We propose a unifying network architecture for deep distributional learning in which entire distributions can be learned in a general framework of interpretable regression models and deep neural networks. Previous approaches that try to combine advanced statistical models and deep neural networks embed the neural network part as a predictor in an additive regression model. In contrast, our approach estimates the statistical model part within a unifying neural network by projecting the deep learning model part into the orthogonal complement of the regression model predictor. This facilitates both estimation and interpretability in high-dimensional settings. We identify appropriate default penalties that can also be treated as prior distribution assumptions in the Bayesian version of our network architecture. We consider several use-cases in experiments with synthetic data and real world applications to demonstrate the full efficacy of our approach.

Parkinson's disease is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by the presence of different motor impairments. Information from speech, handwriting, and gait signals have been considered to evaluate the neurological state of the patients. On the other hand, user models based on Gaussian mixture models - universal background models (GMM-UBM) and i-vectors are considered the state-of-the-art in biometric applications like speaker verification because they are able to model specific speaker traits. This study introduces the use of GMM-UBM and i-vectors to evaluate the neurological state of Parkinson's patients using information from speech, handwriting, and gait. The results show the importance of different feature sets from each type of signal in the assessment of the neurological state of the patients.

Classic contextual bandit algorithms for linear models, such as LinUCB, assume that the reward distribution for an arm is modeled by a stationary linear regression. When the linear regression model is non-stationary over time, the regret of LinUCB can scale linearly with time. In this paper, we propose a novel multiscale changepoint detection method for the non-stationary linear bandit problems, called Multiscale-LinUCB, which actively adapts to the changing environment. We also provide theoretical analysis of regret bound for Multiscale-LinUCB algorithm. Experimental results show that our proposed Multiscale-LinUCB algorithm outperforms other state-of-the-art algorithms in non-stationary contextual environments.

Data analysis based on linear methods, which look for correlations between the features describing samples in a data set, or between features and properties associated with the samples, constitute the simplest, most robust, and transparent approaches to the automatic processing of large amounts of data for building supervised or unsupervised machine learning models. Principal covariates regression (PCovR) is an under-appreciated method that interpolates between principal component analysis and linear regression, and can be used to conveniently reveal structure-property relations in terms of simple-to-interpret, low-dimensional maps. Here we provide a pedagogic overview of these data analysis schemes, including the use of the kernel trick to introduce an element of non-linearity in the process, while maintaining most of the convenience and the simplicity of linear approaches. We then introduce a kernelized version of PCovR and a sparsified extension, followed by a feature-selection scheme based on the CUR matrix decomposition modified to incorporate the same hybrid loss that underlies PCovR. We demonstrate the performance of these approaches in revealing and predicting structure-property relations in chemistry and materials science.

A fundamental challenge in contextual bandits is to develop flexible, general-purpose algorithms with computational requirements no worse than classical supervised learning tasks such as classification and regression. Algorithms based on regression have shown promising empirical success, but theoretical guarantees have remained elusive except in special cases. We provide the first universal and optimal reduction from contextual bandits to online regression. We show how to transform any oracle for online regression with a given value function class into an algorithm for contextual bandits with the induced policy class, with no overhead in runtime or memory requirements. We characterize the minimax rates for contextual bandits with general, potentially nonparametric function classes, and show that our algorithm is minimax optimal whenever the oracle obtains the optimal rate for regression. Compared to previous results, our algorithm requires no distributional assumptions beyond realizability, and works even when contexts are chosen adversarially.

Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) are at the center of health economic decision making. While these analyses help policy analysts and economists determine coverage, inform policy, and guide resource allocation, they are statistically challenging for several reasons. Cost and effectiveness are correlated and follow complex joint distributions which cannot be captured parametrically. Effectiveness (often measured as increased survival time) and cost both tend to be right-censored. Moreover, CEAs are often conducted using observational data with non-random treatment assignment. Policy-relevant causal estimation therefore requires robust confounding control. Finally, current CEA methods do not address cost-effectiveness heterogeneity in a principled way - opting to either present marginal results or cost-effectiveness results for pre-specified subgroups. Motivated by these challenges, we develop a nonparametric Bayesian model for joint cost-survival distributions in the presence of censoring. Our approach utilizes an Enriched Dirichlet Process prior on the covariate effects of cost and survival time, while using a separate Gamma Process prior on the baseline survival time hazard. Causal CEA estimands are identified and estimated via a Bayesian nonparametric g-computation procedure. Finally, we propose leveraging the induced clustering of the Enriched Dirichlet Process to adaptively discover subgroups of patients with different cost-effectiveness profiles. We outline an MCMC procedure for full posterior inference, evaluate frequentist properties via simulations, and apply our model to an observational study of endometrial cancer therapies using medical insurance claims data.

We consider the problem of learning a coefficient vector $x_{0}$ in $R^{N}$ from noisy linear observations $y=Fx_{0}+w$ in $R^{M}$ in the high dimensional limit $M,N$ to infinity with $\alpha=M/N$ fixed. We provide a rigorous derivation of an explicit formula -- first conjectured using heuristic methods from statistical physics -- for the asymptotic mean squared error obtained by penalized convex regression estimators such as the LASSO or the elastic net, for a class of very generic random matrices corresponding to rotationally invariant data matrices with arbitrary spectrum. The proof is based on a convergence analysis of an oracle version of vector approximate message-passing (oracle-VAMP) and on the properties of its state evolution equations. Our method leverages on and highlights the link between vector approximate message-passing, Douglas-Rachford splitting and proximal descent algorithms, extending previous results obtained with i.i.d. matrices for a large class of problems. We illustrate our results on some concrete examples and show that even though they are asymptotic, our predictions agree remarkably well with numerics even for very moderate sizes.