Latent variable models are frequently used to identify structure in dichotomous network data, in part because they give rise to a Bernoulli product likelihood that is both well understood and consistent with the notion of exchangeable random graphs. In this article we propose conservative confidence sets that hold with respect to these underlying Bernoulli parameters as a function of any given partition of network nodes, enabling us to assess estimates of \emph{residual} network structure, that is, structure that cannot be explained by known covariates and thus cannot be easily verified by manual inspection. We demonstrate the proposed methodology by analyzing student friendship networks from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health that include race, gender, and school year as covariates. We employ a stochastic expectation-maximization algorithm to fit a logistic regression model that includes these explanatory variables as well as a latent stochastic blockmodel component and additional node-specific effects. Although maximum-likelihood estimates do not appear consistent in this context, we are able to evaluate confidence sets as a function of different blockmodel partitions, which enables us to qualitatively assess the significance of estimated residual network structure relative to a baseline, which models covariates but lacks block structure.

This paper examines the possibility of a reject option' in the context of least squares regression. It is shown that using rejection it is theoretically possible to learn selective' regressors that can $\epsilon$-pointwise track the best regressor in hindsight from the same hypothesis class, while rejecting only a bounded portion of the domain. Moreover, the rejected volume vanishes with the training set size, under certain conditions. We then develop efficient and exact implementation of these selective regressors for the case of linear regression. Empirical evaluation over a suite of real-world datasets corroborates the theoretical analysis and indicates that our selective regressors can provide substantial advantage by reducing estimation error. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

An accurate model of patient survival time can help in the treatment and care of cancer patients. The common practice of providing survival time estimates based only on population averages for the site and stage of cancer ignores many important individual differences among patients. In this paper, we propose a local regression method for learning patient-specific survival time distribution based on patient attributes such as blood tests and clinical assessments. When tested on a cohort of more than 2000 cancer patients, our method gives survival time predictions that are much more accurate than popular survival analysis models such as the Cox and Aalen regression models. Our results also show that using patient-specific attributes can reduce the prediction error on survival time by as much as 20% when compared to using cancer site and stage only.

Sparse Principal Component Analysis (SPCA) and Sparse Linear Regression (SLR) have a wide range of applications and have attracted a tremendous amount of attention in the last two decades as canonical examples of statistical problems in high dimension. A variety of algorithms have been proposed for both SPCA and SLR, but an explicit connection between the two had not been made. We show how to efficiently transform a black-box solver for SLR into an algorithm for SPCA: assuming the SLR solver satisfies prediction error guarantees achieved by existing efficient algorithms such as those based on the Lasso, the SPCA algorithm derived from it achieves near state of the art guarantees for testing and for support recovery for the single spiked covariance model as obtained by the current best polynomial-time algorithms. Our reduction not only highlights the inherent similarity between the two problems, but also, from a practical standpoint, allows one to obtain a collection of algorithms for SPCA directly from known algorithms for SLR. We provide experimental results on simulated data comparing our proposed framework to other algorithms for SPCA.

Motivated by the desire to extend fast randomized techniques to nonlinear $l_p$ regression, we consider a class of structured regression problems. These problems involve Vandermonde matrices which arise naturally in various statistical modeling settings, including classical polynomial fitting problems and recently developed randomized techniques for scalable kernel methods. We show that this structure can be exploited to further accelerate the solution of the regression problem, achieving running times that are faster than input sparsity''. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a model-based approach for gradient-free black-box function optimization, such as hyperparameter optimization. Typically, BO relies on conventional Gaussian process (GP) regression, whose algorithmic complexity is cubic in the number of evaluations. As a result, GP-based BO cannot leverage large numbers of past function evaluations, for example, to warm-start related BO runs. We propose a multi-task adaptive Bayesian linear regression model for transfer learning in BO, whose complexity is linear in the function evaluations: one Bayesian linear regression model is associated to each black-box function optimization problem (or task), while transfer learning is achieved by coupling the models through a shared deep neural net. Experiments show that the neural net learns a representation suitable for warm-starting the black-box optimization problems and that BO runs can be accelerated when the target black-box function (e.g., validation loss) is learned together with other related signals (e.g., training loss).

Coresets are one of the central methods to facilitate the analysis of large data. We continue a recent line of research applying the theory of coresets to logistic regression. First, we show the negative result that no strongly sublinear sized coresets exist for logistic regression. To deal with intractable worst-case instances we introduce a complexity measure $\mu(X)$, which quantifies the hardness of compressing a data set for logistic regression. For data sets with bounded $\mu(X)$-complexity, we show that a novel sensitivity sampling scheme produces the first provably sublinear $(1\pm\eps)$-coreset.

The process of learning new behaviors over time is a problem of great interest in both neuroscience and artificial intelligence. However, most standard analyses of animal training data either treat behavior as fixed or track only coarse performance statistics (e.g., accuracy, bias), providing limited insight into the evolution of the policies governing behavior. To overcome these limitations, we propose a dynamic psychophysical model that efficiently tracks trial-to-trial changes in behavior over the course of training. Our model consists of a dynamic logistic regression model, parametrized by a set of time-varying weights that express dependence on sensory stimuli as well as task-irrelevant covariates, such as stimulus, choice, and answer history. To illustrate performance, we apply our method to psychophysical data from both rats and human subjects learning a delayed sensory discrimination task.

We develop new stochastic gradient methods for efficiently solving sparse linear regression in a partial attribute observation setting, where learners are only allowed to observe a fixed number of actively chosen attributes per example at training and prediction times. It is shown that the methods achieve essentially a sample complexity of $O(1/\varepsilon)$ to attain an error of $\varepsilon$ under a variant of restricted eigenvalue condition, and the rate has better dependency on the problem dimension than existing methods. Particularly, if the smallest magnitude of the non-zero components of the optimal solution is not too small, the rate of our proposed {\it Hybrid} algorithm can be boosted to near the minimax optimal sample complexity of {\it full information} algorithms. The core ideas are (i) efficient construction of an unbiased gradient estimator by the iterative usage of the hard thresholding operator for configuring an exploration algorithm; and (ii) an adaptive combination of the exploration and an exploitation algorithms for quickly identifying the support of the optimum and efficiently searching the optimal parameter in its support. Experimental results are presented to validate our theoretical findings and the superiority of our proposed methods. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

We consider online linear regression: at each round, an adversary reveals a covariate vector, the learner predicts a real value, the adversary reveals a label, and the learner suffers the squared prediction error. The aim is to minimize the difference between the cumulative loss and that of the linear predictor that is best in hindsight. Previous work demonstrated that the minimax optimal strategy is easy to compute recursively from the end of the game; this requires the entire sequence of covariate vectors in advance. We show that, once provided with a measure of the scale of the problem, we can invert the recursion and play the minimax strategy without knowing the future covariates. Further, we show that this forward recursion remains optimal even against adaptively chosen labels and covariates, provided that the adversary adheres to a set of constraints that prevent misrepresentation of the scale of the problem.