This article serves as the regression analysis lecture notes in the Intelligent Computing course cluster (including the courses of Artificial Intelligence, Data Mining, Machine Learning, and Pattern Recognition). It aims to provide students -- who are assumed to possess only basic university-level mathematics (i.e., with prerequisite courses in calculus, linear algebra, and probability theory) -- with a comprehensive and self-contained understanding of regression analysis without requiring any additional references. The lecture notes systematically introduce the fundamental concepts, modeling components, and theoretical foundations of regression analysis, covering linear regression, logistic regression, multinomial logistic regression, polynomial regression, basis-function models, kernel-based methods, and neural-network-based nonlinear regression. Core methodological topics include loss-function design, parameter-estimation principles, ordinary least squares, gradient-based optimization algorithms and their variants, as well as regularization techniques such as Ridge and LASSO regression. Through detailed mathematical derivations, illustrative examples, and intuitive visual explanations, the materials help students understand not only how regression models are constructed and optimized, but also how they reveal the underlying relationships between features and response variables. By bridging classical statistical modeling and modern machine-learning practice, these lecture notes aim to equip students with a solid conceptual and technical foundation for further study in advanced artificial intelligence models.

Neighbor-based methods are a natural alternative to linear prediction for tabular data when relationships between inputs and targets exhibit complexity such as nonlinearity, periodicity, or heteroscedasticity. Yet in deep learning on unstructured data, nonparametric neighbor-based approaches are rarely implemented in lieu of simple linear heads. This is primarily due to the ability of systems equipped with linear regression heads to co-learn internal representations along with the linear head's parameters. To unlock the full potential of neighbor-based methods in neural networks we introduce SoftStep, a parametric module that learns sparse instance-wise similarity measures directly from data. When integrated with existing neighbor-based methods, SoftStep enables regression models that consistently outperform linear heads across diverse architectures, domains, and training scenarios. We focus on regression tasks, where we show theoretically that neighbor-based prediction with a mean squared error objective constitutes a metric learning algorithm that induces well-structured embedding spaces. We then demonstrate analytically and empirically that this representational structure translates into superior performance when combined with the sparse, instance-wise similarity measures introduced by SoftStep. Beyond regression, SoftStep is a general method for learning instance-wise similarity in deep neural networks, with broad applicability to attention mechanisms, metric learning, representational alignment, and related paradigms.

Shapley values, a gold standard for feature attribution in Explainable AI, face two primary challenges. First, the canonical Shapley framework assumes that the worth function is additive, yet real-world payoff constructions--driven by non-Gaussian distributions, heavy tails, feature dependence, or domain-specific loss scales--often violate this assumption, leading to distorted attributions. Secondly, achieving sparse explanations in high dimensions by computing dense Shapley values and then applying ad hoc thresholding is prohibitively costly and risks inconsistency. We introduce Sparse Isotonic Shapley Regression (SISR), a unified nonlinear explanation framework. SISR simultaneously learns a monotonic transformation to restore additivity--obviating the need for a closed-form specification--and enforces an L0 sparsity constraint on the Shapley vector, enhancing computational efficiency in large feature spaces. Its optimization algorithm leverages Pool-Adjacent-Violators for efficient isotonic regression and normalized hard-thresholding for support selection, yielding implementation ease and global convergence guarantees. Analysis shows that SISR recovers the true transformation in a wide range of scenarios and achieves strong support recovery even in high noise. Moreover, we are the first to demonstrate that irrelevant features and inter-feature dependencies can induce a true payoff transformation that deviates substantially from linearity. Experiments in regression, logistic regression, and tree ensembles demonstrate that SISR stabilizes attributions across payoff schemes, correctly filters irrelevant features while standard Shapley values suffer severe rank and sign distortions. By unifying nonlinear transformation estimation with sparsity pursuit, SISR advances the frontier of nonlinear explainability, providing a theoretically grounded and practical attribution framework.

In physics, especially in geosciences and climate sciences, the poor performance of neural networks (NN) when applied outside their training distribution or their trained dynamics poses a very strong limitation to their general applicability (Irrgang et al., 2021; Landsberg and Barnes, 2025). In these fields, physical relations such as laws, dependencies or sensitivities are commonly derived (or learned) under well observed conditions and are then applied to less observed conditions to gain knowledge about the latter. For example, results from lab or numerical model experiments are regularly applied to real world problems or observations (e.g., Mehta et al., 2025); knowledge from our Earth and our Solar System are transferred to other planets and other star systems (e.g., Kvorka et al., 2026); learned relations that are derived today are transferred to the distant past or to the future (e.g., Eyring et al., 2016; Wang et al., 2024; Koutsodendris et al., 2014).

This paper is concerned with the problem of how to speed up computation for Gaussian process models trained on autocorrelated data. The Gaussian process model is a powerful tool commonly used in nonlinear regression applications. Standard regression modeling assumes random samples and an independently, identically distributed noise. Various fast approximations that speed up Gaussian process regression work under this standard setting. But for autocorrelated data, failing to account for autocorrelation leads to a phenomenon known as temporal overfitting that deteriorates model performance on new test instances. To handle autocorrelated data, existing fast Gaussian process approximations have to be modified; one such approach is to segment the originally correlated data points into blocks in which the blocked data are de-correlated. This work explains how to make some of the existing Gaussian process approximations work with blocked data. Numerical experiments across diverse application datasets demonstrate that the proposed approaches can remarkably accelerate computation for Gaussian process regression on autocorrelated data without compromising model prediction performance.

The analysis of non-real-valued data, such as binary time series, has attracted great interest in recent years. This manuscript proposes a post-selection estimator for estimating the coefficient matrices of a high-dimensional generalized binary vector autoregressive process and establishes a Gaussian approximation theorem for the proposed estimator. Furthermore, it introduces a second-order wild bootstrap algorithm to enable statistical inference on the coefficient matrices. Numerical studies and empirical applications demonstrate the good finite-sample performance of the proposed method.

The Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority (MBTA) is the main public transit provider in Boston, operating multiple means of transport, including trains, subways, and buses. However, the system often faces delays and fluctuations in ridership volume, which negatively affect efficiency and passenger satisfaction. To further understand this phenomenon, this paper compares the performance of existing and unique methods to determine the best approach in predicting gated station entries in the subway system (a proxy for subway usage) and the number of delays in the overall MBTA system. To do so, this research considers factors that tend to affect public transportation, such as day of week, season, pressure, wind speed, average temperature, and precipitation. This paper evaluates the performance of 10 statistical and machine learning models on predicting next-day subway usage. On predicting delay count, the number of models is extended to 11 per day by introducing a self-exciting point process model, representing a unique application of a point-process framework for MBTA delay modeling. This research involves experimenting with the selective inclusion of features to determine feature importance, testing model accuracy via Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Remarkably, it is found that providing either day of week or season data has a more substantial benefit to predictive accuracy compared to weather data; in fact, providing weather data generally worsens performance, suggesting a tendency of models to overfit.

Timely assessment of current conditions is essential especially for small, open economies such as Singapore, where external shocks transmit rapidly to domestic activity. We develop a real-time nowcasting framework for quarterly GDP growth using a high-dimensional panel of approximately 70 indicators, encompassing economic and financial indicators over 1990Q1-2023Q2. The analysis covers penalized regressions, dimensionality-reduction methods, ensemble learning algorithms, and neural architectures, benchmarked against a Random Walk, an AR(3), and a Dynamic Factor Model. The pipeline preserves temporal ordering through an expanding-window walk-forward design with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization, and uses moving block-bootstrap procedures both to construct prediction intervals and to obtain confidence bands for feature-importance measures. It adopts model-specific and XAI-based explainability tools. A Model Confidence Set procedure identifies statistically superior learners, which are then combined through simple, weighted, and exponentially weighted schemes; the resulting time-varying weights provide an interpretable representation of model contributions. Predictive ability is assessed via Giacomini-White tests. Empirical results show that penalized regressions, dimensionality-reduction models, and GRU networks consistently outperform all benchmarks, with RMSFE reductions of roughly 40-60%; aggregation delivers further gains. Feature-attribution methods highlight industrial production, external trade, and labor-market indicators as dominant drivers of Singapore's short-run growth dynamics.

In this paper, we investigate a second-order stochastic algorithm for solving large-scale binary classification problems. We propose to make use of a new hybrid stochastic Newton algorithm that includes two weighted components in the Hessian matrix estimation: the first one coming from the natural Hessian estimate and the second associated with the stochastic gradient information. Our motivation comes from the fact that both parts evaluated at the true parameter of logistic regression, are equal to the Hessian matrix. This new formulation has several advantages and it enables us to prove the almost sure convergence of our stochastic algorithm to the true parameter. Moreover, we significantly improve the almost sure rate of convergence to the Hessian matrix. Furthermore, we establish the central limit theorem for our hybrid stochastic Newton algorithm. Finally, we show a surprising result on the almost sure convergence of the cumulative excess risk.

We introduce Smart Bayes, a new classification framework that bridges generative and discriminative modeling by integrating likelihood-ratio-based generative features into a logistic-regression-style discriminative classifier. From the generative perspective, Smart Bayes relaxes the fixed unit weights of Naive Bayes by allowing data-driven coefficients on density-ratio features. From a discriminative perspective, it constructs transformed inputs as marginal log-density ratios that explicitly quantify how much more likely each feature value is under one class than another, thereby providing predictors with stronger class separation than the raw covariates. To support this framework, we develop a spline-based estimator for univariate log-density ratios that is flexible, robust, and computationally efficient. Through extensive simulations and real-data studies, Smart Bayes often outperforms both logistic regression and Naive Bayes. Our results highlight the potential of hybrid approaches that exploit generative structure to enhance discriminative performance.