In most machine-learning contexts, algorithm developers and theorists are concerned with solving a single task or optimizing a single metric at a time. Nonetheless, even in the big data era, the datasets are expensive and oftentimes collected for a large number of tasks, and models based on a single task likely hit the performance ceiling due to the limited sample size without fully exploiting the dataset featuring multiple tasks. For instance, in inventory management, the hype cycle of technology is getting shortened. It is increasingly critical for retailers to recognize the consumption patterns of customers as early as possible, so as to minimize the cost caused by backordering and holding. Since the selling data is limited at the early stage of the operations, decision making can generally be challenging.

Most supervised machine learning tasks are subject to irreducible prediction errors. Probabilistic predictive models address this limitation by providing probability distributions that represent a belief over plausible targets, rather than point estimates. Such models can be a valuable tool in decision-making under uncertainty, provided that the model output is meaningful and interpretable. Calibrated models guarantee that the probabilistic predictions are neither over- nor under-confident. In the machine learning literature, different measures and statistical tests have been proposed and studied for evaluating the calibration of classification models. For regression problems, however, research has been focused on a weaker condition of calibration based on predicted quantiles for real-valued targets. In this paper, we propose the first framework that unifies calibration evaluation and tests for general probabilistic predictive models. It applies to any such model, including classification and regression models of arbitrary dimension. Furthermore, the framework generalizes existing measures and provides a more intuitive reformulation of a recently proposed framework for calibration in multi-class classification. In particular, we reformulate and generalize the kernel calibration error, its estimators, and hypothesis tests using scalar-valued kernels, and evaluate the calibration of real-valued regression problems.

We prove a new generalization bound that shows for any class of linear predictors in Gaussian space, the Rademacher complexity of the class and the training error under any continuous loss $\ell$ can control the test error under all Moreau envelopes of the loss $\ell$. We use our finite-sample bound to directly recover the "optimistic rate" of Zhou et al. (2021) for linear regression with the square loss, which is known to be tight for minimal $\ell_2$-norm interpolation, but we also handle more general settings where the label is generated by a potentially misspecified multi-index model. The same argument can analyze noisy interpolation of max-margin classifiers through the squared hinge loss, and establishes consistency results in spiked-covariance settings. More generally, when the loss is only assumed to be Lipschitz, our bound effectively improves Talagrand's well-known contraction lemma by a factor of two, and we prove uniform convergence of interpolators (Koehler et al. 2021) for all smooth, non-negative losses. Finally, we show that application of our generalization bound using localized Gaussian width will generally be sharp for empirical risk minimizers, establishing a non-asymptotic Moreau envelope theory for generalization that applies outside of proportional scaling regimes, handles model misspecification, and complements existing asymptotic Moreau envelope theories for M-estimation.

One common approach to detecting change-points is minimizing a cost function over possible numbers and locations of change-points. The framework includes several well-established procedures, such as the penalized likelihood and minimum description length. Such an approach requires finding the cost value repeatedly over different segments of the data set, which can be time-consuming when (i) the data sequence is long and (ii) obtaining the cost value involves solving a non-trivial optimization problem. This paper introduces a new sequential method (SE) that can be coupled with gradient descent (SeGD) and quasi-Newton's method (SeN) to find the cost value effectively. The core idea is to update the cost value using the information from previous steps without re-optimizing the objective function. The new method is applied to change-point detection in generalized linear models and penalized regression. Numerical studies show that the new approach can be orders of magnitude faster than the Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) method without sacrificing estimation accuracy.

For text classification tasks, finetuned language models perform remarkably well. Yet, they tend to rely on spurious patterns in training data, thus limiting their performance on out-of-distribution (OOD) test data. Among recent models aiming to avoid this spurious pattern problem, adding extra counterfactual samples to the training data has proven to be very effective. Yet, counterfactual data generation is costly since it relies on human annotation. Thus, we propose a novel solution that only requires annotation of a small fraction (e.g., 1%) of the original training data, and uses automatic generation of extra counterfactuals in an encoding vector space. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in sentiment classification, using IMDb data for training and other sets for OOD tests (i.e., Amazon, SemEval and Yelp). We achieve noticeable accuracy improvements by adding only 1% manual counterfactuals: +3% compared to adding +100% in-distribution training samples, +1.3% compared to alternate counterfactual approaches.

Climate change and increasing resource scarcity are challenges that Europe needs to face in the coming decades. All this has a direct impact on air transport, which is struggling to maintain its performance and competitiveness while ensuring a development focused on sustainable mobility. Research and innovation are essential to maintain the capabilities of the aviation industry, driven by the rise of new markets and new competitors as a result of globalization. A new longterm vision for the aeronautics sector is essential to ensure its successful advancement. In this line, new requirements for the future aviation industry have been defined by the ACARE Flightpath 2050, a Group of Recognized Personalities in the aeronautic sector, including stakeholders from the aeronautics industry, air traffic management, airports, airlines, energy providers and the research community. Aeronautics and air transport comprises both: air vehicle and system technology.

State-of-the-art machine learning models can be vulnerable to very small input perturbations that are adversarially constructed. Adversarial training is an effective approach to defend against such examples. It is formulated as a min-max problem, searching for the best solution when the training data was corrupted by the worst-case attacks. For linear regression problems, adversarial training can be formulated as a convex problem. We use this reformulation to make two technical contributions: First, we formulate the training problem as an instance of robust regression to reveal its connection to parameter-shrinking methods, specifically that $\ell_\infty$-adversarial training produces sparse solutions. Secondly, we study adversarial training in the overparameterized regime, i.e. when there are more parameters than data. We prove that adversarial training with small disturbances gives the solution with the minimum-norm that interpolates the training data. Ridge regression and lasso approximate such interpolating solutions as their regularization parameter vanishes. By contrast, for adversarial training, the transition into the interpolation regime is abrupt and for non-zero values of disturbance. This result is proved and illustrated with numerical examples.

We consider distributed learning using constant stepsize SGD (DSGD) over several devices, each sending a final model update to a central server. In a final step, the local estimates are aggregated. We prove in the setting of overparameterized linear regression general upper bounds with matching lower bounds and derive learning rates for specific data generating distributions. We show that the excess risk is of order of the variance provided the number of local nodes grows not too large with the global sample size. We further compare the sample complexity of DSGD with the sample complexity of distributed ridge regression (DRR) and show that the excess SGD-risk is smaller than the excess RR-risk, where both sample complexities are of the same order.

The alfalfa crop is globally important as livestock feed, so highly efficient planting and harvesting could benefit many industries, especially as the global climate changes and traditional methods become less accurate. Recent work using machine learning (ML) to predict yields for alfalfa and other crops has shown promise. Previous efforts used remote sensing, weather, planting, and soil data to train machine learning models for yield prediction. However, while remote sensing works well, the models require large amounts of data and cannot make predictions until the harvesting season begins. Using weather and planting data from alfalfa variety trials in Kentucky and Georgia, our previous work compared feature selection techniques to find the best technique and best feature set. In this work, we trained a variety of machine learning models, using cross validation for hyperparameter optimization, to predict biomass yields, and we showed better accuracy than similar work that employed more complex techniques. Our best individual model was a random forest with a mean absolute error of 0.081 tons/acre and R{$^2$} of 0.941. Next, we expanded this dataset to include Wisconsin and Mississippi, and we repeated our experiments, obtaining a higher best R{$^2$} of 0.982 with a regression tree. We then isolated our testing datasets by state to explore this problem's eligibility for domain adaptation (DA), as we trained on multiple source states and tested on one target state. This Trivial DA (TDA) approach leaves plenty of room for improvement through exploring more complex DA techniques in forthcoming work.

Deep classifiers are known to rely on spurious features $\unicode{x2013}$ patterns which are correlated with the target on the training data but not inherently relevant to the learning problem, such as the image backgrounds when classifying the foregrounds. In this paper we evaluate the amount of information about the core (non-spurious) features that can be decoded from the representations learned by standard empirical risk minimization (ERM) and specialized group robustness training. Following recent work on Deep Feature Reweighting (DFR), we evaluate the feature representations by re-training the last layer of the model on a held-out set where the spurious correlation is broken. On multiple vision and NLP problems, we show that the features learned by simple ERM are highly competitive with the features learned by specialized group robustness methods targeted at reducing the effect of spurious correlations. Moreover, we show that the quality of learned feature representations is greatly affected by the design decisions beyond the training method, such as the model architecture and pre-training strategy. On the other hand, we find that strong regularization is not necessary for learning high quality feature representations. Finally, using insights from our analysis, we significantly improve upon the best results reported in the literature on the popular Waterbirds, CelebA hair color prediction and WILDS-FMOW problems, achieving 97%, 92% and 50% worst-group accuracies, respectively.