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 Regression


Orthogonal Series Estimation for the Ratio of Conditional Expectation Functions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In various fields of data science, researchers are often interested in estimating the ratio of conditional expectation functions (CEFR). Specifically in causal inference problems, it is sometimes natural to consider ratio-based treatment effects, such as odds ratios and hazard ratios, and even difference-based treatment effects are identified as CEFR in some empirically relevant settings. This chapter develops the general framework for estimation and inference on CEFR, which allows the use of flexible machine learning for infinite-dimensional nuisance parameters. In the first stage of the framework, the orthogonal signals are constructed using debiased machine learning techniques to mitigate the negative impacts of the regularization bias in the nuisance estimates on the target estimates. The signals are then combined with a novel series estimator tailored for CEFR. We derive the pointwise and uniform asymptotic results for estimation and inference on CEFR, including the validity of the Gaussian bootstrap, and provide low-level sufficient conditions to apply the proposed framework to some specific examples. We demonstrate the finite-sample performance of the series estimator constructed under the proposed framework by numerical simulations. Finally, we apply the proposed method to estimate the causal effect of the 401(k) program on household assets.


Visual Tactile Sensor Based Force Estimation for Position-Force Teleoperation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Vision-based tactile sensors have gained extensive attention in the robotics community. The sensors are highly expected to be capable of extracting contact information i.e. haptic information during in-hand manipulation. This nature of tactile sensors makes them a perfect match for haptic feedback applications. In this paper, we propose a contact force estimation method using the vision-based tactile sensor DIGIT, and apply it to a position-force teleoperation architecture for force feedback. The force estimation is done by building a depth map for DIGIT gel surface deformation measurement and applying a regression algorithm on estimated depth data and ground truth force data to get the depth-force relationship. The experiment is performed by constructing a grasping force feedback system with a haptic device as a leader robot and a parallel robot gripper as a follower robot, where the DIGIT sensor is attached to the tip of the robot gripper to estimate the contact force. The preliminary results show the capability of using the low-cost vision-based sensor for force feedback applications.


AI-enabled exploration of Instagram profiles predicts soft skills and personality traits to empower hiring decisions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

It does not matter whether it is a job interview with Tech Giants, Wall Street firms, or a small startup; all candidates want to demonstrate their best selves or even present themselves better than they really are. Meanwhile, recruiters want to know the candidates' authentic selves and detect soft skills that prove an expert candidate would be a great fit in any company. Recruiters worldwide usually struggle to find employees with the highest level of these skills. Digital footprints can assist recruiters in this process by providing candidates' unique set of online activities, while social media delivers one of the largest digital footprints to track people. In this study, for the first time, we show that a wide range of behavioral competencies consisting of 16 in-demand soft skills can be automatically predicted from Instagram profiles based on the following lists and other quantitative features using machine learning algorithms. We also provide predictions on Big Five personality traits. Models were built based on a sample of 400 Iranian volunteer users who answered an online questionnaire and provided their Instagram usernames which allowed us to crawl the public profiles. We applied several machine learning algorithms to the uniformed data. Deep learning models mostly outperformed by demonstrating 70% and 69% average Accuracy in two-level and three-level classifications respectively. Creating a large pool of people with the highest level of soft skills, and making more accurate evaluations of job candidates is possible with the application of AI on social media user-generated data.


Designing Compact Features for Remote Stroke Rehabilitation Monitoring using Wearable Accelerometers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Stroke is known as a major global health problem, and for stroke survivors it is key to monitor the recovery levels. However, traditional stroke rehabilitation assessment methods (such as the popular clinical assessment) can be subjective and expensive, and it is also less convenient for patients to visit clinics in a high frequency. To address this issue, in this work based on wearable sensing and machine learning techniques, we develop an automated system that can predict the assessment score in an objective manner. With wrist-worn sensors, accelerometer data is collected from 59 stroke survivors in free-living environments for a duration of 8 weeks, and we map the week-wise accelerometer data(3 days per week) to the assessment score by developing signal processing and predictive model pipeline. To achieve this, we propose two types of new features, which can encode the rehabilitation information from both paralysed and non-paralysed sides while suppressing the high level noises such as irrelevant daily activities. Based on the proposed features, we further develop the longitudinal mixed-effects model with Gaussian process prior (LMGP), which can model the random effects caused by different subjects and time slots (during the 8 weeks). Comprehensive experiments are conducted to evaluate our system on both acute and chronic patients, and the promising results suggest its effectiveness.


Optimizing Warfarin Dosing using Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Warfarin is a widely used anticoagulant, and has a narrow therapeutic range. Dosing of warfarin should be individualized, since slight overdosing or underdosing can have catastrophic or even fatal consequences. Despite much research on warfarin dosing, current dosing protocols do not live up to expectations, especially for patients sensitive to warfarin. We propose a deep reinforcement learning-based dosing model for warfarin. To overcome the issue of relatively small sample sizes in dosing trials, we use a Pharmacokinetic/ Pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model of warfarin to simulate dose-responses of virtual patients. Applying the proposed algorithm on virtual test patients shows that this model outperforms a set of clinically accepted dosing protocols by a wide margin. We tested the robustness of our dosing protocol on a second PK/PD model and showed that its performance is comparable to the set of baseline protocols.


Calibrated Multiple-Output Quantile Regression with Representation Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.


Design interpretable experience of dynamical feed forward machine learning model for forecasting NASDAQ

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations(NASDAQ) is an American stock exchange based. It is one of the most valuable stock economic indices in the world and is located in New York City \cite{pagano2008quality}. The volatility of the stock market and the influence of economic indicators such as crude oil, gold, and the dollar in the stock market, and NASDAQ shares are also affected and have a volatile and chaotic nature \cite{firouzjaee2022lstm}.In this article, we have examined the effect of oil, dollar, gold, and the volatility of the stock market in the economic market, and then we have also examined the effect of these indicators on NASDAQ stocks. Then we started to analyze the impact of the feedback on the past prices of NASDAQ stocks and its impact on the current price. Using PCA and Linear Regression algorithm, we have designed an optimal dynamic learning experience for modeling these stocks. The results obtained from the quantitative analysis are consistent with the results of the qualitative analysis of economic studies, and the modeling done with the optimal dynamic experience of machine learning justifies the current price of NASDAQ shares.


Encrypted machine learning of molecular quantum properties

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large machine learning models with improved predictions have become widely available in the chemical sciences. Unfortunately, these models do not protect the privacy necessary within commercial settings, prohibiting the use of potentially extremely valuable data by others. Encrypting the prediction process can solve this problem by double-blind model evaluation and prohibits the extraction of training or query data. However, contemporary ML models based on fully homomorphic encryption or federated learning are either too expensive for practical use or have to trade higher speed for weaker security. We have implemented secure and computationally feasible encrypted machine learning models using oblivious transfer enabling and secure predictions of molecular quantum properties across chemical compound space. However, we find that encrypted predictions using kernel ridge regression models are a million times more expensive than without encryption. This demonstrates a dire need for a compact machine learning model architecture, including molecular representation and kernel matrix size, that minimizes model evaluation costs.


A Theoretical Study of The Effects of Adversarial Attacks on Sparse Regression

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper analyzes $\ell_1$ regularized linear regression under the challenging scenario of having only adversarially corrupted data for training. We use the primal-dual witness paradigm to provide provable performance guarantees for the support of the estimated regression parameter vector to match the actual parameter. Our theoretical analysis shows the counter-intuitive result that an adversary can influence sample complexity by corrupting the irrelevant features, i.e., those corresponding to zero coefficients of the regression parameter vector, which, consequently, do not affect the dependent variable. As any adversarially robust algorithm has its limitations, our theoretical analysis identifies the regimes under which the learning algorithm and adversary can dominate over each other. It helps us to analyze these fundamental limits and address critical scientific questions of which parameters (like mutual incoherence, the maximum and minimum eigenvalue of the covariance matrix, and the budget of adversarial perturbation) play a role in the high or low probability of success of the LASSO algorithm. Also, the derived sample complexity is logarithmic with respect to the size of the regression parameter vector, and our theoretical claims are validated by empirical analysis on synthetic and real-world datasets.


A Novel Plug-and-Play Approach for Adversarially Robust Generalization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work, we propose a robust framework that employs adversarially robust training to safeguard the machine learning models against perturbed testing data. We achieve this by incorporating the worst-case additive adversarial error within a fixed budget for each sample during model estimation. Our main focus is to provide a plug-and-play solution that can be incorporated in the existing machine learning algorithms with minimal changes. To that end, we derive the ready-to-use solution for several widely used loss functions with a variety of norm constraints on adversarial perturbation for various supervised and unsupervised ML problems, including regression, classification, two-layer neural networks, graphical models, and matrix completion. The solutions are either in closed-form, 1-D optimization, semidefinite programming, difference of convex programming or a sorting-based algorithm. Finally, we validate our approach by showing significant performance improvement on real-world datasets for supervised problems such as regression and classification, as well as for unsupervised problems such as matrix completion and learning graphical models, with very little computational overhead.