We study counterfactual classification as a new tool for decision-making under hypothetical (contrary to fact) scenarios. We propose a doubly-robust nonparametric estimator for a general counterfactual classifier, where we can incorporate flexible constraints by casting the classification problem as a nonlinear mathematical program involving counterfactuals. We go on to analyze the rates of convergence of the estimator and provide a closed-form expression for its asymptotic distribution. Our analysis shows that the proposed estimator is robust against nuisance model misspecification, and can attain fast $\sqrt{n}$ rates with tractable inference even when using nonparametric machine learning approaches. We study the empirical performance of our methods by simulation and apply them for recidivism risk prediction.

This thesis focuses on data that has complex spatio-temporal structure and on probabilistic graphical models that learn the structure in an interpretable and scalable manner. We target two research areas of interest: Gaussian graphical models for tensor-variate data and summarization of complex time-varying texts using topic models. This work advances the state-of-the-art in several directions. First, it introduces a new class of tensor-variate Gaussian graphical models via the Sylvester tensor equation. Second, it develops an optimization technique based on a fast-converging proximal alternating linearized minimization method, which scales tensor-variate Gaussian graphical model estimations to modern big-data settings. Third, it connects Kronecker-structured (inverse) covariance models with spatio-temporal partial differential equations (PDEs) and introduces a new framework for ensemble Kalman filtering that is capable of tracking chaotic physical systems. Fourth, it proposes a modular and interpretable framework for unsupervised and weakly-supervised probabilistic topic modeling of time-varying data that combines generative statistical models with computational geometric methods. Throughout, practical applications of the methodology are considered using real datasets. This includes brain-connectivity analysis using EEG data, space weather forecasting using solar imaging data, longitudinal analysis of public opinions using Twitter data, and mining of mental health related issues using TalkLife data. We show in each case that the graphical modeling framework introduced here leads to improved interpretability, accuracy, and scalability.

Subsampling algorithms are a natural approach to reduce data size before fitting models on massive datasets. In recent years, several works have proposed methods for subsampling rows from a data matrix while maintaining relevant information for classification. While these works are supported by theory and limited experiments, to date there has not been a comprehensive evaluation of these methods. In our work, we directly compare multiple methods for logistic regression drawn from the coreset and optimal subsampling literature and discover inconsistencies in their effectiveness. In many cases, methods do not outperform simple uniform subsampling.

Intrusion Detection Systems are an important component of many organizations' cyber defense and resiliency strategies. However, one downside of these systems is their reliance on known attack signatures for detection of malicious network events. When it comes to unknown attack types and zero-day exploits, modern Intrusion Detection Systems often fall short. In this paper, we introduce an unconventional approach to identifying network traffic features that influence novelty detection based on survival analysis techniques. Specifically, we combine several Cox proportional hazards models and implement Kaplan-Meier estimates to predict the probability that a classifier identifies novelty after the injection of an unknown network attack at any given time. The proposed model is successful at pinpointing PSH Flag Count, ACK Flag Count, URG Flag Count, and Down/Up Ratio as the main features to impact novelty detection via Random Forest, Bayesian Ridge, and Linear Support Vector Regression classifiers.

We consider high-dimensional multiclass classification by sparse multinomial logistic regression. Unlike binary classification, in the multiclass setup one can think about an entire spectrum of possible notions of sparsity associated with different structural assumptions on the regression coefficients matrix. We propose a computationally feasible feature selection procedure based on penalized maximum likelihood with convex penalties capturing a specific type of sparsity at hand. In particular, we consider global sparsity, double row-wise sparsity, and low-rank sparsity, and show that with the properly chosen tuning parameters the derived plug-in classifiers attain the minimax generalization error bounds (in terms of misclassification excess risk) within the corresponding classes of multiclass sparse linear classifiers. The developed approach is general and can be adapted to other types of sparsity as well.

Recently, fitting probabilistic models have gained importance in many areas but estimation of such distributional models with very large data sets is a difficult task. In particular, the use of rather complex models can easily lead to memory-related efficiency problems that can make estimation infeasible even on high-performance computers. We therefore propose a novel backfitting algorithm, which is based on the ideas of stochastic gradient descent and can deal virtually with any amount of data on a conventional laptop. The algorithm performs automatic selection of variables and smoothing parameters, and its performance is in most cases superior or at least equivalent to other implementations for structured additive distributional regression, e.g., gradient boosting, while maintaining low computation time. Performance is evaluated using an extensive simulation study and an exceptionally challenging and unique example of lightning count prediction over Austria. A very large dataset with over 9 million observations and 80 covariates is used, so that a prediction model cannot be estimated with standard distributional regression methods but with our new approach.

L2 regularization is a method used to prevent overfitting in machine learning models. It adds a penalty term to the loss function that is proportional to the sum of the squares of the weights. This penalizes large weights and encourages the model to use only the most relevant features. L2 regularization is also known as weight decay because it causes the model's weight to decay toward zero. The penalty term is usually added to the loss function during training and is typically set by cross-validation.

Linear regression is a statistical method for modeling the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. It is a widely-used technique for predicting the outcome of a continuous variable, and it is especially useful when you have a large amount of data. In this blog post, we will discuss the theory behind linear regression, how to perform it in practice, and some of its applications. The basic idea behind linear regression is to find a line that best fits a set of data points. The line is represented by the equation y mx b, where y is the dependent variable, x is the independent variable, m is the slope of the line, and b is the y-intercept.

The success of large-scale models in recent years has increased the importance of statistical models with numerous parameters. Several studies have analyzed over-parameterized linear models with high-dimensional data that may not be sparse; however, existing results depend on the independent setting of samples. In this study, we analyze a linear regression model with dependent time series data under over-parameterization settings. We consider an estimator via interpolation and developed a theory for the excess risk of the estimator. Then, we derive bounds of risks by the estimator for the cases where the temporal correlation of each coordinate of dependent data is homogeneous and heterogeneous, respectively. The derived bounds reveal that a temporal covariance of the data plays a key role; its strength affects the bias of the risk, and its nondegeneracy affects the variance of the risk. Moreover, for the heterogeneous correlation case, we show that the convergence rate of risks with short-memory processes is identical to that of cases with independent data, and the risk can converge to zero even with long-memory processes. Our theory can be extended to infinite-dimensional data in a unified manner. We also present several examples of specific dependent processes that can be applied to our setting.

Despite the success of large-scale empirical risk minimization (ERM) at achieving high accuracy across a variety of machine learning tasks, fair ERM is hindered by the incompatibility of fairness constraints with stochastic optimization. We consider the problem of fair classification with discrete sensitive attributes and potentially large models and data sets, requiring stochastic solvers. Existing in-processing fairness algorithms are either impractical in the large-scale setting because they require large batches of data at each iteration or they are not guaranteed to converge. In this paper, we develop the first stochastic in-processing fairness algorithm with guaranteed convergence. For demographic parity, equalized odds, and equal opportunity notions of fairness, we provide slight variations of our algorithm--called FERMI--and prove that each of these variations converges in stochastic optimization with any batch size. Empirically, we show that FERMI is amenable to stochastic solvers with multiple (non-binary) sensitive attributes and non-binary targets, performing well even with minibatch size as small as one. Extensive experiments show that FERMI achieves the most favorable tradeoffs between fairness violation and test accuracy across all tested setups compared with state-of-the-art baselines for demographic parity, equalized odds, equal opportunity. These benefits are especially significant with small batch sizes and for non-binary classification with large number of sensitive attributes, making FERMI a practical, scalable fairness algorithm. The code for all of the experiments in this paper is available at: https://github.com/optimization-for-data-driven-science/FERMI.