Theoretically, the conditional expectation of a square-integrable random variable $Y$ given a $d$-dimensional random vector $X$ can be obtained by minimizing the mean squared distance between $Y$ and $f(X)$ over all Borel measurable functions $f \colon \mathbb{R}^d \to \mathbb{R}$. However, in many applications this minimization problem cannot be solved exactly, and instead, a numerical method which computes an approximate minimum over a suitable subfamily of Borel functions has to be used. The quality of the result depends on the adequacy of the subfamily and the performance of the numerical method. In this paper, we derive an expected value representation of the minimal mean squared distance which in many applications can efficiently be approximated with a standard Monte Carlo average. This enables us to provide guarantees for the accuracy of any numerical approximation of a given conditional expectation. We illustrate the method by assessing the quality of approximate conditional expectations obtained by linear, polynomial and neural network regression in different concrete examples.

Feedforward neural networks (FNNs) can be viewed as non-linear regression models, where covariates enter the model through a combination of weighted summations and non-linear functions. Although these models have some similarities to the models typically used in statistical modelling, the majority of neural network research has been conducted outside of the field of statistics. This has resulted in a lack of statistically-based methodology, and, in particular, there has been little emphasis on model parsimony. Determining the input layer structure is analogous to variable selection, while the structure for the hidden layer relates to model complexity. In practice, neural network model selection is often carried out by comparing models using out-of-sample performance. However, in contrast, the construction of an associated likelihood function opens the door to information-criteria-based variable and architecture selection. A novel model selection method, which performs both input- and hidden-node selection, is proposed using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for FNNs. The choice of BIC over out-of-sample performance as the model selection objective function leads to an increased probability of recovering the true model, while parsimoniously achieving favourable out-of-sample performance. Simulation studies are used to evaluate and justify the proposed method, and applications on real data are investigated.

Vehicle insurance claims size prediction needs methods to efficiently handle these claims. Machine learning (ML) is one of the methods that solve this problem. Tree-based ensemble learning algorithms are highly effective and widely used ML methods. This study considers how vehicle insurance providers incorporate ML methods in their companies and explores how the models can be applied to insurance big data. We utilize various tree-based ML methods, such as bagging, random forest, and gradient boosting, to determine the relative importance of predictors in predicting claims size and to explore the relationships between claims size and predictors. Furthermore, we evaluate and compare these models' performances. The results show that tree-based ensemble methods are better than the classical least square method. Keywords: claims size prediction; machine learning; tree-based ensemble methods; vehicle insurance.

Determining the most informative features for predicting the overall survival of patients diagnosed with high-grade gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms is crucial to improve individual treatment plans for patients, as well as the biological understanding of the disease. Recently developed ensemble feature selectors like the Repeated Elastic Net Technique for Feature Selection (RENT) and the User-Guided Bayesian Framework for Feature Selection (UBayFS) allow the user to identify such features in datasets with low sample sizes. While RENT is purely data-driven, UBayFS is capable of integrating expert knowledge a priori in the feature selection process. In this work we compare both feature selectors on a dataset comprising of 63 patients and 134 features from multiple sources, including basic patient characteristics, baseline blood values, tumor histology, imaging, and treatment information. Our experiments involve data-driven and expert-driven setups, as well as combinations of both. We use findings from clinical literature as a source of expert knowledge. Our results demonstrate that both feature selectors allow accurate predictions, and that expert knowledge has a stabilizing effect on the feature set, while the impact on predictive performance is limited. The features WHO Performance Status, Albumin, Platelets, Ki-67, Tumor Morphology, Total MTV, Total TLG, and SUVmax are the most stable and predictive features in our study.

We study the fair regression problem under the notion of Mean Parity (MP) fairness, which requires the conditional mean of the learned function output to be constant with respect to the sensitive attributes. We address this problem by leveraging reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) to construct the functional space whose members are guaranteed to satisfy the fairness constraints. The proposed functional space suggests a closed-form solution for the fair regression problem that is naturally compatible with multiple sensitive attributes. Furthermore, by formulating the fairness-accuracy tradeoff as a relaxed fair regression problem, we derive a corresponding regression function that can be implemented efficiently and provides interpretable tradeoffs. More importantly, under some mild assumptions, the proposed method can be applied to regression problems with a covariance-based notion of fairness. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show the proposed methods achieve competitive and even superior performance compared with several state-of-the-art methods.

This paper presents a quantum-based Fourier-regression approach for machine learning hyperparameter optimization applied to a benchmark of models trained on a dataset related to a forecast problem in the airline industry. Our approach utilizes the Fourier series method to represent the hyperparameter search space, which is then optimized using quantum algorithms to find the optimal set of hyperparameters for a given machine learning model. Our study evaluates the proposed method on a benchmark of models trained to predict a forecast problem in the airline industry using a standard HyperParameter Optimizer (HPO). The results show that our approach outperforms traditional hyperparameter optimization methods in terms of accuracy and convergence speed for the given search space. Our study provides a new direction for future research in quantum-based machine learning hyperparameter optimization.

In recent years, large amounts of electronic health records (EHRs) concerning chronic diseases, such as cancer, diabetes, and mental disease, have been collected to facilitate medical diagnosis. Modeling the dynamic properties of EHRs related to chronic diseases can be efficiently done using dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs), which are a set of sequential decision rules. While Reinforcement learning (RL) is a widely used method for creating DTRs, there is ongoing research in developing RL algorithms that can effectively handle large amounts of data. In this paper, we present a novel approach, a distributed Q-learning algorithm, for generating DTRs. The novelties of our research are as follows: 1) From a methodological perspective, we present a novel and scalable approach for generating DTRs by combining distributed learning with Q-learning. The proposed approach is specifically designed to handle large amounts of data and effectively generate DTRs. 2) From a theoretical standpoint, we provide generalization error bounds for the proposed distributed Q-learning algorithm, which are derived within the framework of statistical learning theory. These bounds quantify the relationships between sample size, prediction accuracy, and computational burden, providing insights into the performance of the algorithm. 3) From an applied perspective, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed distributed Q-learning algorithm for DTRs by applying it to clinical cancer treatments. The results show that our algorithm outperforms both traditional linear Q-learning and commonly used deep Q-learning in terms of both prediction accuracy and computation cost.

Vertical Federated Learning (VFL) enables multiple data owners, each holding a different subset of features about largely overlapping sets of data sample(s), to jointly train a useful global model. Feature selection (FS) is important to VFL. It is still an open research problem as existing FS works designed for VFL either assumes prior knowledge on the number of noisy features or prior knowledge on the post-training threshold of useful features to be selected, making them unsuitable for practical applications. To bridge this gap, we propose the Federated Stochastic Dual-Gate based Feature Selection (FedSDG-FS) approach. It consists of a Gaussian stochastic dual-gate to efficiently approximate the probability of a feature being selected, with privacy protection through Partially Homomorphic Encryption without a trusted third-party. To reduce overhead, we propose a feature importance initialization method based on Gini impurity, which can accomplish its goals with only two parameter transmissions between the server and the clients. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that FedSDG-FS significantly outperforms existing approaches in terms of achieving accurate selection of high-quality features as well as building global models with improved performance.

The promising research on Artificial Intelligence usages in suicide prevention has principal gaps, including black box methodologies, inadequate outcome measures, and scarce research on non-verbal inputs, such as social media images (despite their popularity today, in our digital era). This study addresses these gaps and combines theory-driven and bottom-up strategies to construct a hybrid and interpretable prediction model of valid suicide risk from images. The lead hypothesis was that images contain valuable information about emotions and interpersonal relationships, two central concepts in suicide-related treatments and theories. The dataset included 177,220 images by 841 Facebook users who completed a gold-standard suicide scale. The images were represented with CLIP, a state-of-the-art algorithm, which was utilized, unconventionally, to extract predefined features that served as inputs to a simple logistic-regression prediction model (in contrast to complex neural networks). The features addressed basic and theory-driven visual elements using everyday language (e.g., bright photo, photo of sad people). The results of the hybrid model (that integrated theory-driven and bottom-up methods) indicated high prediction performance that surpassed common bottom-up algorithms, thus providing a first proof that images (alone) can be leveraged to predict validated suicide risk. Corresponding with the lead hypothesis, at-risk users had images with increased negative emotions and decreased belonginess. The results are discussed in the context of non-verbal warning signs of suicide. Notably, the study illustrates the advantages of hybrid models in such complicated tasks and provides simple and flexible prediction strategies that could be utilized to develop real-life monitoring tools of suicide.

This paper develops a model-free sequential test for conditional independence. The proposed test allows researchers to analyze an incoming i.i.d. data stream with any arbitrary dependency structure, and safely conclude whether a feature is conditionally associated with the response under study. We allow the processing of data points online, as soon as they arrive, and stop data acquisition once significant results are detected, rigorously controlling the type-I error rate. Our test can work with any sophisticated machine learning algorithm to enhance data efficiency to the extent possible. The developed method is inspired by two statistical frameworks. The first is the model-X conditional randomization test, a test for conditional independence that is valid in offline settings where the sample size is fixed in advance. The second is testing by betting, a ``game-theoretic'' approach for sequential hypothesis testing. We conduct synthetic experiments to demonstrate the advantage of our test over out-of-the-box sequential tests that account for the multiplicity of tests in the time horizon, and demonstrate the practicality of our proposal by applying it to real-world tasks.