The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is the best measure of individual causal effects given baseline covariates. However, the CATE only captures the (conditional) average, and can overlook risks and tail events, which are important to treatment choice. In aggregate analyses, this is usually addressed by measuring the distributional treatment effect (DTE), such as differences in quantiles or tail expectations between treatment groups. Hypothetically, one can similarly fit conditional quantile regressions in each treatment group and take their difference, but this would not be robust to misspecification or provide agnostic best-in-class predictions. We provide a new robust and model-agnostic methodology for learning the conditional DTE (CDTE) for a class of problems that includes conditional quantile treatment effects, conditional super-quantile treatment effects, and conditional treatment effects on coherent risk measures given by $f$-divergences. Our method is based on constructing a special pseudo-outcome and regressing it on covariates using any regression learner. Our method is model-agnostic in that it can provide the best projection of CDTE onto the regression model class. Our method is robust in that even if we learn these nuisances nonparametrically at very slow rates, we can still learn CDTEs at rates that depend on the class complexity and even conduct inferences on linear projections of CDTEs. We investigate the behavior of our proposal in simulations, as well as in a case study of 401(k) eligibility effects on wealth.

Conditional local independence is an asymmetric independence relation among continuous time stochastic processes. It describes whether the evolution of one process is directly influenced by another process given the histories of additional processes, and it is important for the description and learning of causal relations among processes. We formulate a model-free framework for testing the hypothesis that a counting process is conditionally locally independent of another process. To this end, we introduce a new functional parameter called the Local Covariance Measure (LCM), which quantifies deviations from the hypothesis. Following the principles of double machine learning, we propose an estimator of the LCM and a test of the hypothesis using nonparametric estimators and sample splitting or cross-fitting. We call this test the (cross-fitted) Local Covariance Test ((X)-LCT), and we show that its level and power can be controlled uniformly, provided that the nonparametric estimators are consistent with modest rates. We illustrate the theory by an example based on a marginalized Cox model with time-dependent covariates, and we show in simulations that when double machine learning is used in combination with cross-fitting, then the test works well without restrictive parametric assumptions.

This paper compares the performance of various data processing methods in terms of predictive performance for structured data. This paper also seeks to identify and recommend preprocessing methodologies for tree-based binary classification models, with a focus on eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models. Three data sets of various structures, interactions, and complexity were constructed, which were supplemented by a real-world data set from the Lending Club. We compare several methods for feature selection, categorical handling, and null imputation. Performance is assessed using relative comparisons among the chosen methodologies, including model prediction variability. This paper is presented by the three groups of preprocessing methodologies, with each section consisting of generalized observations. Each observation is accompanied by a recommendation of one or more preferred methodologies. Among feature selection methods, permutation-based feature importance, regularization, and XGBoost's feature importance by weight are not recommended. The correlation coefficient reduction also shows inferior performance. Instead, XGBoost importance by gain shows the most consistency and highest caliber of performance. Categorical featuring encoding methods show greater discrimination in performance among data set structures. While there was no universal "best" method, frequency encoding showed the greatest performance for the most complex data sets (Lending Club), but had the poorest performance for all synthetic (i.e., simpler) data sets. Finally, missing indicator imputation dominated in terms of performance among imputation methods, whereas tree imputation showed extremely poor and highly variable model performance.

This paper focuses on building of models of stochastic systems with aleatoric uncertainty. The nature of the considered systems is such that the identical inputs can result in different outputs, i.e. the output is a random variable. The suggested in this paper algorithm targets an identification of multi-modal properties of the output distributions, even when they depend on the inputs and vary significantly throughout the dataset. This ability of the suggested method to recognise complex and not only bell-shaped distributions follows from its construction and is backed up by provided experimental results. In general, the suggested method belongs to the category of boosted ensemble learning techniques, where the single deterministic component can be an arbitrarily-chosen regression model. The algorithm does not require any special properties of the chosen regression model, other than having descriptive capabilities with some expected accuracy for the training data type.

Variational Inference (VI) is an attractive alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) due to its computational efficiency in the case of large datasets and/or complex models with high-dimensional parameters. However, evaluating the accuracy of variational approximations remains a challenge. Existing methods characterize the quality of the whole variational distribution, which is almost always poor in realistic applications, even if specific posterior functionals such as the component-wise means or variances are accurate. Hence, these diagnostics are of practical value only in limited circumstances. To address this issue, we propose the TArgeted Diagnostic for Distribution Approximation Accuracy (TADDAA), which uses many short parallel MCMC chains to obtain lower bounds on the error of each posterior functional of interest. We also develop a reliability check for TADDAA to determine when the lower bounds should not be trusted. Numerical experiments validate the practical utility and computational efficiency of our approach on a range of synthetic distributions and real-data examples, including sparse logistic regression and Bayesian neural network models.

An important problem in network analysis is predicting a node attribute using both network covariates, such as graph embedding coordinates or local subgraph counts, and conventional node covariates, such as demographic characteristics. While standard regression methods that make use of both types of covariates may be used for prediction, statistical inference is complicated by the fact that the nodal summary statistics are often dependent in complex ways. We show that under a mild joint exchangeability assumption, a network analog of conformal prediction achieves finite sample validity for a wide range of network covariates. We also show that a form of asymptotic conditional validity is achievable. The methods are illustrated on both simulated networks and a citation network dataset.

In this work, we consider the off-policy policy evaluation problem for contextual bandits and finite horizon reinforcement learning in the nonstationary setting. Reusing old data is critical for policy evaluation, but existing estimators that reuse old data introduce large bias such that we can not obtain a valid confidence interval. Inspired from a related field called survey sampling, we introduce a variant of the doubly robust (DR) estimator, called the regression-assisted DR estimator, that can incorporate the past data without introducing a large bias. The estimator unifies several existing off-policy policy evaluation methods and improves on them with the use of auxiliary information and a regression approach. We prove that the new estimator is asymptotically unbiased, and provide a consistent variance estimator to a construct a large sample confidence interval. Finally, we empirically show that the new estimator improves estimation for the current and future policy values, and provides a tight and valid interval estimation in several nonstationary recommendation environments.

Understanding how subsets of items are chosen from offered sets is critical to assortment planning, wireless network planning, and many other applications. There are two seemingly unrelated subset choice models that capture dependencies between items: intuitive and interpretable random utility models; and tractable determinantal point processes (DPPs). This paper connects the two. First, all DPPs are shown to be random utility models. Next, a determinantal choice model that enjoys the best of both worlds is specified; the model is shown to subsume logistic regression when dependence is minimal, and MNL when dependence is maximally negative. This makes the model interpretable, while retaining the tractability of DPPs. A simulation study verifies that the model can learn a continuum of negative dependencies from data, and an applied study using original experimental data produces novel insights on wireless interference in LoRa networks.

Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual performance or chose the best team but did not highlight the batter's potential. On the other hand, our research aims to evaluate a player's impact while considering his control in various circumstances. This paper seeks to understand the conundrum behind this impactful performance by determining how much control a player has over the circumstances and generating the "Effective Runs",a new measure we propose. We first gathered the fundamental cricket data from open-source datasets; however, variables like pitch, weather, and control were not readily available for all matches. As a result, we compiled our corpus data by analyzing the commentary of the match summaries. This gave us an insight into the particular game's weather and pitch conditions. Furthermore, ball-by-ball inspection from the commentary led us to determine the control of the shots played by the batter. We collected data for the entire One Day International career, up to February 2022, of 3 prominent cricket players: Rohit G Sharma, David A Warner, and Kane S Williamson. Lastly, to prepare the dataset, we encoded, scaled, and split the dataset to train and test Machine Learning Algorithms. We used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression, and Random Forest Regression on each player's data individually to train them and predict the Impact the player will have on the game. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest give the best predictions accuracy of 90.16 percent and 87.12 percent, respectively.

Monitoring microbiological behaviors in water is crucial to manage public health risk from waterborne pathogens, although quantifying the concentrations of microbiological organisms in water is still challenging because concentrations of many pathogens in water samples may often be below the quantification limit, producing censoring data. To enable statistical analysis based on quantitative values, the true values of non-detected measurements are required to be estimated with high precision. Tobit model is a well-known linear regression model for analyzing censored data. One drawback of the Tobit model is that only the target variable is allowed to be censored. In this study, we devised a novel extension of the classical Tobit model, called the \emph{multi-target Tobit model}, to handle multiple censored variables simultaneously by introducing multiple target variables. For fitting the new model, a numerical stable optimization algorithm was developed based on elaborate theories. Experiments conducted using several real-world water quality datasets provided an evidence that estimating multiple columns jointly gains a great advantage over estimating them separately.