Gridded satellite precipitation datasets are useful in hydrological applications as they cover large regions with high density. However, they are not accurate in the sense that they do not agree with ground-based measurements. An established means for improving their accuracy is to correct them by adopting machine learning algorithms. This correction takes the form of a regression problem, in which the ground-based measurements have the role of the dependent variable and the satellite data are the predictor variables, together with topography factors (e.g., elevation). Most studies of this kind involve a limited number of machine learning algorithms, and are conducted for a small region and for a limited time period. Thus, the results obtained through them are of local importance and do not provide more general guidance and best practices. To provide results that are generalizable and to contribute to the delivery of best practices, we here compare eight state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms in correcting satellite precipitation data for the entire contiguous United States and for a 15-year period. We use monthly data from the PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) gridded dataset, together with monthly earth-observed precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network monthly database, version 2 (GHCNm). The results suggest that extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and random forests are the most accurate in terms of the squared error scoring function. The remaining algorithms can be ordered as follows from the best to the worst: Bayesian regularized feed-forward neural networks, multivariate adaptive polynomial splines (poly-MARS), gradient boosting machines (gbm), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), feed-forward neural networks, linear regression.

Graph representation learning has become a prominent tool for the characterization and understanding of the structure of networks in general and social networks in particular. Typically, these representation learning approaches embed the networks into a low-dimensional space in which the role of each individual can be characterized in terms of their latent position. A major current concern in social networks is the emergence of polarization and filter bubbles promoting a mindset of "us-versus-them" that may be defined by extreme positions believed to ultimately lead to political violence and the erosion of democracy. Such polarized networks are typically characterized in terms of signed links reflecting likes and dislikes. We propose the latent Signed relational Latent dIstance Model (SLIM) utilizing for the first time the Skellam distribution as a likelihood function for signed networks and extend the modeling to the characterization of distinct extreme positions by constraining the embedding space to polytopes. On four real social signed networks of polarization, we demonstrate that the model extracts low-dimensional characterizations that well predict friendships and animosity while providing interpretable visualizations defined by extreme positions when endowing the model with an embedding space restricted to polytopes.

I propose a novel approach for nonlinear Logistic regression using a two-layer neural network (NN) model structure with hierarchical priors on the network weights. I present a hybrid of expectation propagation called Variational Expectation Propagation approach (VEP) for approximate integration over the posterior distribution of the weights, the hierarchical scale parameters of the priors and zeta. Using a factorized posterior approximation I derive a computationally efficient algorithm, whose complexity scales similarly to an ensemble of independent sparse logistic models. The approach can be extended beyond standard activation functions and NN model structures to form flexible nonlinear binary predictors from multiple sparse linear models. I consider a hierarchical Bayesian model with logistic regression likelihood and a Gaussian prior distribution over the parameters called weights and hyperparameters. I work in the perspective of E step and M step for computing the approximating posterior and updating the parameters using the computed posterior respectively.

Introduction: Machine learning (ML) has been extremely successful in identifying key features from high-dimensional datasets and executing complicated tasks with human expert levels of accuracy or greater. Methods: We summarize and critically evaluate current applications of ML in dementia research and highlight directions for future research. Results: We present an overview of ML algorithms most frequently used in dementia research and highlight future opportunities for the use of ML in clinical practice, experimental medicine, and clinical trials. We discuss issues of reproducibility, replicability and interpretability and how these impact the clinical applicability of dementia research. Finally, we give examples of how state-of-the-art methods, such as transfer learning, multi-task learning, and reinforcement learning, may be applied to overcome these issues and aid the translation of research to clinical practice in the future. Discussion: ML-based models hold great promise to advance our understanding of the underlying causes and pathological mechanisms of dementia.

In stochastic optimization, a common tool to deal sequentially with large sample is to consider the well-known stochastic gradient algorithm. Nevertheless, since the stepsequence is the same for each direction, this can lead to bad results in practice in case of ill-conditionned problem. To overcome this, adaptive gradient algorithms such that Adagrad or Stochastic Newton algorithms should be prefered. This paper is devoted to the non asymptotic analyis of these adaptive gradient algorithms for strongly convex objective. All the theoretical results will be adapted to linear regression and regularized generalized linear model for both Adagrad and Stochastic Newton algorithms.

We present a simple and quick method to approximate network centrality indexes. Our approach, called QuickCent, is inspired by so-called fast and frugal heuristics, which are heuristics initially proposed to model some human decision and inference processes. The centrality index that we estimate is the harmonic centrality, which is a measure based on shortest-path distances, so infeasible to compute on large networks. We compare QuickCent with known machine learning algorithms on synthetic data generated with preferential attachment, and some empirical networks. Our experiments show that QuickCent is able to make estimates that are competitive in accuracy with the best alternative methods tested, either on synthetic scale-free networks or empirical networks. QuickCent has the feature of achieving low error variance estimates, even with a small training set. Moreover, QuickCent is comparable in efficiency -- accuracy and time cost -- to those produced by more complex methods. We discuss and provide some insight into how QuickCent exploits the fact that in some networks, such as those generated by preferential attachment, local density measures such as the in-degree, can be a proxy for the size of the network region to which a node has access, opening up the possibility of approximating centrality indices based on size such as the harmonic centrality. Our initial results show that simple heuristics and biologically inspired computational methods are a promising line of research in the context of network measure estimations.

Robustness and resilience of simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) are critical requirements for modern autonomous robotic systems. One of the essential steps to achieve robustness and resilience is the ability of SLAM to have an integrity measure for its localization estimates, and thus, have internal fault tolerance mechanisms to deal with performance degradation. In this work, we introduce a novel method for predicting SLAM localization error based on the characterization of raw sensor inputs. The proposed method relies on using a random forest regression model trained on 1-D global pooled features that are generated from characterized raw sensor data. The model is validated by using it to predict the performance of ORB-SLAM3 on three different datasets running on four different operating modes, resulting in an average prediction accuracy of up to 94.7\%. The paper also studies the impact of 12 different 1-D global pooling functions on regression quality, and the superiority of 1-D global averaging is quantitatively proven. Finally, the paper studies the quality of prediction with limited training data, and proves that we are able to maintain proper prediction quality when only 20 \% of the training examples are used for training, which highlights how the proposed model can optimize the evaluation footprint of SLAM systems.

In this literature review, we provided a survey of interpretable and explainable machine learning methods (see Tables 1 and 2 for the summary of the techniques), described commonest goals and desiderata for these techniques, motivated their relevance in several fields of application, and discussed their quantitative evaluation. Interpretability and explainability still remain an active area of research, especially, in the face of recent rapid progress in designing highly performant predictive models and inevitable infusion of machine learning into other domains, where decisions have far-reaching consequences. For years the field has been challenged by a lack of clear definitions for interpretability or explainability, these terms being often wielded "in a quasi-mathematical way"[6,122]. For many techniques, there still exist no satisfactory functionally-grounded evaluation criteria and universally accepted benchmarks, hindering reproducibility and model comparison. Moreover, meaningful adaptations of these methods to'real-world' machine learning systems and data analysis problems largely remain a matter for the future. It has been argued that, for successful and widespread use of interpretable and explainable machine learning models, stakeholders need to be involved in the discussion[4, 122]. A meaningful and equal collaboration between machine learning researchers and stakeholders from various domains, such as medicine, natural sciences, and law, is a logical next step within the evolution of interpretable and explainable ML.

Molecular-level understanding of the interactions between the constituents of an atomic structure is essential for designing novel materials in various applications. This need goes beyond the basic knowledge of the number and types of atoms, their chemical composition, and the character of the chemical interactions. The bigger picture takes place on the quantum level which can be addressed by using the Density-functional theory (DFT). Use of DFT, however, is a computationally taxing process, and its results do not readily provide easily interpretable insight into the atomic interactions which would be useful information in material design. An alternative way to address atomic interactions is to use an interpretable machine learning approach, where a predictive DFT surrogate is constructed and analyzed. The purpose of this paper is to propose such a procedure using a modification of the recently published interpretable distance-based regression method. Our tests with a representative benchmark set of molecules and a complex hybrid nanoparticle confirm the viability and usefulness of the proposed approach.

Binary geospatial data is commonly analyzed with generalized linear mixed models, specified with a linear fixed covariate effect and a Gaussian Process (GP)-distributed spatial random effect, relating to the response via a link function. The assumption of linear covariate effects is severely restrictive. Random Forests (RF) are increasingly being used for non-linear modeling of spatial data, but current extensions of RF for binary spatial data depart the mixed model setup, relinquishing inference on the fixed effects and other advantages of using GP. We propose RF-GP, using Random Forests for estimating the non-linear covariate effect and Gaussian Processes for modeling the spatial random effects directly within the generalized mixed model framework. We observe and exploit equivalence of Gini impurity measure and least squares loss to propose an extension of RF for binary data that accounts for the spatial dependence. We then propose a novel link inversion algorithm that leverages the properties of GP to estimate the covariate effects and offer spatial predictions. RF-GP outperforms existing RF methods for estimation and prediction in both simulated and real-world data. We establish consistency of RF-GP for a general class of $\beta$-mixing binary processes that includes common choices like spatial Mat\'ern GP and autoregressive processes.