Diagnosis of adverse neonatal outcomes is crucial for preterm survival since it enables doctors to provide timely treatment. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have been demonstrated to be effective in predicting adverse neonatal outcomes. However, most previous ML-based methods have only focused on predicting a single outcome, ignoring the potential correlations between different outcomes, and potentially leading to suboptimal results and overfitting issues. In this work, we first analyze the correlations between three adverse neonatal outcomes and then formulate the diagnosis of multiple neonatal outcomes as a multi-task learning (MTL) problem. We then propose an MTL framework to jointly predict multiple adverse neonatal outcomes. In particular, the MTL framework contains shared hidden layers and multiple task-specific branches. Extensive experiments have been conducted using Electronic Health Records (EHRs) from 121 preterm neonates. Empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the MTL framework. Furthermore, the feature importance is analyzed for each neonatal outcome, providing insights into model interpretability.

We study the problem of online generalized linear regression in the stochastic setting, where the label is generated from a generalized linear model with possibly unbounded additive noise. We provide a sharp analysis of the classical follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) algorithm to cope with the label noise. More specifically, for $\sigma$-sub-Gaussian label noise, our analysis provides a regret upper bound of $O(\sigma^2 d \log T) + o(\log T)$, where $d$ is the dimension of the input vector, $T$ is the total number of rounds. We also prove a $\Omega(\sigma^2d\log(T/d))$ lower bound for stochastic online linear regression, which indicates that our upper bound is nearly optimal. In addition, we extend our analysis to a more refined Bernstein noise condition. As an application, we study generalized linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise and propose an algorithm based on FTRL to achieve the first variance-aware regret bound.

We propose an adjusted Wasserstein distributionally robust estimator -- based on a nonlinear transformation of the Wasserstein distributionally robust (WDRO) estimator in statistical learning. This transformation will improve the statistical performance of WDRO because the adjusted WDRO estimator is asymptotically unbiased and has an asymptotically smaller mean squared error. The adjusted WDRO will not mitigate the out-of-sample performance guarantee of WDRO. Sufficient conditions for the existence of the adjusted WDRO estimator are presented, and the procedure for the computation of the adjusted WDRO estimator is given. Specifically, we will show how the adjusted WDRO estimator is developed in the generalized linear model. Numerical experiments demonstrate the favorable practical performance of the adjusted estimator over the classic one.

A recent line of works, initiated by [1] and [2], has shown that the generalization error of a learning algorithm can be upper bounded by information measures. In most of the relevant works, the convergence rate of the expected generalization error is in the form of O( λ/n) where λ is some information-theoretic quantities such as the mutual information or conditional mutual information between the data and the learned hypothesis. However, such a learning rate is typically considered to be "slow", compared to a "fast rate" of O(λ/n) in many learning scenarios. In this work, we first show that the square root does not necessarily imply a slow rate, and a fast rate result can still be obtained using this bound under appropriate assumptions. Furthermore, we identify the critical conditions needed for the fast rate generalization error, which we call the (η, c)-central condition. Under this condition, we give information-theoretic bounds on the generalization error and excess risk, with a fast convergence rate for specific learning algorithms such as empirical risk minimization and its regularized version. Finally, several analytical examples are given to show the effectiveness of the bounds. The generalization error of a learning algorithm lies in the core analysis of the statistical learning theory, and the estimation of which becomes remarkably crucial.

Passive radio frequency (PRF)-based indoor positioning systems (IPS) have attracted researchers' attention due to their low price, easy and customizable configuration, and non-invasive design. This paper proposes a PRF-based three-dimensional (3D) indoor positioning system (PIPS), which is able to use signals of opportunity (SoOP) for positioning and also capture a scenario signature. PIPS passively monitors SoOPs containing scenario signatures through a single receiver. Moreover, PIPS leverages the Dynamic Data Driven Applications System (DDDAS) framework to devise and customize the sampling frequency, enabling the system to use the most impacted frequency band as the rated frequency band. Various regression methods within three ensemble learning strategies are used to train and predict the receiver position. The PRF spectrum of 60 positions is collected in the experimental scenario, and three criteria are applied to evaluate the performance of PIPS. Experimental results show that the proposed PIPS possesses the advantages of high accuracy, configurability, and robustness.

The percolation threshold is an important measure to determine the inherent rigidity of large networks. Predictors of the percolation threshold for large networks are computationally intense to run, hence it is a necessity to develop predictors of the percolation threshold of networks, that do not rely on numerical simulations. We demonstrate the efficacy of five machine learning-based regression techniques for the accurate prediction of the percolation threshold. The dataset generated to train the machine learning models contains a total of 777 real and synthetic networks. It consists of 5 statistical and structural properties of networks as features and the numerically computed percolation threshold as the output attribute. We establish that the machine learning models outperform three existing empirical estimators of bond percolation threshold, and extend this experiment to predict site and explosive percolation. Further, we compared the performance of our models in predicting the percolation threshold using RMSE values. The gradient boosting regressor, multilayer perceptron and random forests regression models achieve the least RMSE values among considered models.

In recent years, car-sharing services have emerged as viable alternatives to private individual mobility, promising more sustainable and resource-efficient, but still comfortable transportation. Research on short-term prediction and optimization methods has improved operations and fleet control of car-sharing services; however, long-term projections and spatial analysis are sparse in the literature. We propose to analyze the average monthly demand in a station-based car-sharing service with spatially-aware learning algorithms that offer high predictive performance as well as interpretability. In particular, we compare the spatially-implicit Random Forest model with spatially-aware methods for predicting average monthly per-station demand. The study utilizes a rich set of socio-demographic, location-based (e.g., POIs), and car-sharing-specific features as input, extracted from a large proprietary car-sharing dataset and publicly available datasets. We show that the global Random Forest model with geo-coordinates as an input feature achieves the highest predictive performance with an R-squared score of 0.87, while local methods such as Geographically Weighted Regression perform almost on par and additionally yield exciting insights into the heterogeneous spatial distributions of factors influencing car-sharing behaviour. Additionally, our study offers effective as well as highly interpretable methods for diagnosing and planning the placement of car-sharing stations.

Synthetic control is a causal inference tool used to estimate the treatment effects of an intervention by creating synthetic counterfactual data. This approach combines measurements from other similar observations (i.e., donor pool ) to predict a counterfactual time series of interest (i.e., target unit) by analyzing the relationship between the target and the donor pool before the intervention. As synthetic control tools are increasingly applied to sensitive or proprietary data, formal privacy protections are often required. In this work, we provide the first algorithms for differentially private synthetic control with explicit error bounds. Our approach builds upon tools from non-private synthetic control and differentially private empirical risk minimization. We provide upper and lower bounds on the sensitivity of the synthetic control query and provide explicit error bounds on the accuracy of our private synthetic control algorithms. We show that our algorithms produce accurate predictions for the target unit, and that the cost of privacy is small. Finally, we empirically evaluate the performance of our algorithm, and show favorable performance in a variety of parameter regimes, as well as providing guidance to practitioners for hyperparameter tuning.

All three approaches can be thought of as sketching the logistic regression inputs. On the coreset construction front, we resolve open problems from prior work and present novel bounds for the complexity of coreset construction methods. On the feature selection and dimensionality reduction front, we initiate the study of forward error bounds for logistic regression. Our bounds are tight up to constant factors and our forward error bounds can be extended to Generalized Linear Models.

The asymptotic mean squared test error and sensitivity of the Random Features Regression model (RFR) have been recently studied. We build on this work and identify in closed-form the family of Activation Functions (AFs) that minimize a combination of the test error and sensitivity of the RFR under different notions of functional parsimony. We find scenarios under which the optimal AFs are linear, saturated linear functions, or expressible in terms of Hermite polynomials. Finally, we show how using optimal AFs impacts well established properties of the RFR model, such as its double descent curve, and the dependency of its optimal regularization parameter on the observation noise level. For many neural network (NN) architectures, the test error does not monotonically increase as a model's complexity increases but can go down with the training error both at low and high complexity levels. This phenomenon, the double descent curve, defies intuition and has motivated new frameworks to explain it. Explanations have been advanced involving linear regression with random covariates (Belkin et al., 2020; Hastie et al., 2022), kernel regression (Belkin et al., 2019b; Liang & Rakhlin, 2020), the neural tangent kernel model (Jacot et al., 2018), and the Random Features Regression (RFR) model (Mei & Montanari, 2022). These frameworks allow queries beyond the generalization power of NNs. For example, they have been used to study networks' robustness properties (Hassani & Javanmard, 2022; Tripuraneni et al., 2021). One aspect within reach and unstudied to this day is finding optimal Activation Functions (AFs) for these models. It is known that AFs affect a network's approximation accuracy and efforts to optimize AFs have been undertaken. Previous work has justified the choice of AFs empirically, e.g., Ramachandran et al. (2017), or provided numerical procedures to learn AF parameters, sometimes jointly with models' parameters, e.g. See Rasamoelina et al. (2020) for commonly used AFs and Appendix C for how AFs have been previously derived. We derive for the first time closed-form optimal AFs such that an explicit objective function involving the asymptotic test error and sensitivity of a model is minimized. Setting aside empirical and principled but numerical methods, all past principled and analytical approaches to design AFs focus on non accuracy related considerations, e.g.