Regression
NAP at SemEval-2023 Task 3: Is Less Really More? (Back-)Translation as Data Augmentation Strategies for Detecting Persuasion Techniques
Falk, Neele, Eichel, Annerose, Piccirilli, Prisca
Persuasion techniques detection in news in a multi-lingual setup is non-trivial and comes with challenges, including little training data. Our system successfully leverages (back-)translation as data augmentation strategies with multi-lingual transformer models for the task of detecting persuasion techniques. The automatic and human evaluation of our augmented data allows us to explore whether (back-)translation aid or hinder performance. Our in-depth analyses indicate that both data augmentation strategies boost performance; however, balancing human-produced and machine-generated data seems to be crucial.
Lady and the Tramp Nextdoor: Online Manifestations of Economic Inequalities in the Nextdoor Social Network
Iqbal, Waleed, Ghafouri, Vahid, Tyson, Gareth, Suarez-Tangil, Guillermo, Castro, Ignacio
From health to education, income impacts a huge range of life choices. Earlier research has leveraged data from online social networks to study precisely this impact. In this paper, we ask the opposite question: do different levels of income result in different online behaviors? We demonstrate it does. We present the first large-scale study of Nextdoor, a popular location-based social network. We collect 2.6 Million posts from 64,283 neighborhoods in the United States and 3,325 neighborhoods in the United Kingdom, to examine whether online discourse reflects the income and income inequality of a neighborhood. We show that posts from neighborhoods with different incomes indeed differ, e.g. richer neighborhoods have a more positive sentiment and discuss crimes more, even though their actual crime rates are much lower. We then show that user-generated content can predict both income and inequality. We train multiple machine learning models and predict both income (R-squared=0.841) and inequality (R-squared=0.77).
FairBalance: How to Achieve Equalized Odds With Data Pre-processing
Yu, Zhe, Chakraborty, Joymallya, Menzies, Tim
This research seeks to benefit the software engineering society by providing a simple yet effective pre-processing approach to achieve equalized odds fairness in machine learning software. Fairness issues have attracted increasing attention since machine learning software is increasingly used for high-stakes and high-risk decisions. Amongst all the existing fairness notions, this work specifically targets "equalized odds" given its advantage in always allowing perfect classifiers. Equalized odds requires that members of every demographic group do not receive disparate mistreatment. Prior works either optimize for an equalized odds related metric during the learning process like a black-box, or manipulate the training data following some intuition. This work studies the root cause of the violation of equalized odds and how to tackle it. We found that equalizing the class distribution in each demographic group with sample weights is a necessary condition for achieving equalized odds without modifying the normal training process. In addition, an important partial condition for equalized odds (zero average odds difference) can be guaranteed when the class distributions are weighted to be not only equal but also balanced (1:1). Based on these analyses, we proposed FairBalance, a pre-processing algorithm which balances the class distribution in each demographic group by assigning calculated weights to the training data. On eight real-world datasets, our empirical results show that, at low computational overhead, the proposed pre-processing algorithm FairBalance can significantly improve equalized odds without much, if any damage to the utility. FairBalance also outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches in terms of equalized odds. To facilitate reuse, reproduction, and validation, we made our scripts available at https://github.com/hil-se/FairBalance.
A Comparative Analysis of Multiple Methods for Predicting a Specific Type of Crime in the City of Chicago
Djon, Deborah, Jhawar, Jitesh, Drumm, Kieron, Tran, Vincent
Researchers regard crime as a social phenomenon that is influenced by several physical, social, and economic factors. Different types of crimes are said to have different motivations. Theft, for instance, is a crime that is based on opportunity, whereas murder is driven by emotion. In accordance with this, we examine how well a model can perform with only spatiotemporal information at hand when it comes to predicting a single crime. More specifically, we aim at predicting theft, as this is a crime that should be predictable using spatiotemporal information. We aim to answer the question: "How well can we predict theft using spatial and temporal features?". To answer this question, we examine the effectiveness of support vector machines, linear regression, XGBoost, Random Forest, and k-nearest neighbours, using different imbalanced techniques and hyperparameters. XGBoost showed the best results with an F1-score of 0.86.
Multi-Task Learning Regression via Convex Clustering
Okazaki, Akira, Kawano, Shuichi
Multi-task learning (MTL) is a methodology that aims to improve the general performance of estimation and prediction by sharing common information among related tasks. In the MTL, there are several assumptions for the relationships and methods to incorporate them. One of the natural assumptions in the practical situation is that tasks are classified into some clusters with their characteristics. For this assumption, the group fused regularization approach performs clustering of the tasks by shrinking the difference among tasks. This enables us to transfer common information within the same cluster. However, this approach also transfers the information between different clusters, which worsens the estimation and prediction. To overcome this problem, we propose an MTL method with a centroid parameter representing a cluster center of the task. Because this model separates parameters into the parameters for regression and the parameters for clustering, we can improve estimation and prediction accuracy for regression coefficient vectors. We show the effectiveness of the proposed method through Monte Carlo simulations and applications to real data.
Imputation of missing values in multi-view data
van Loon, Wouter, Fokkema, Marjolein, de Rooij, Mark
Data for which a set of objects is described by multiple distinct feature sets (called views) is known as multi-view data. When missing values occur in multi-view data, all features in a view are likely to be missing simultaneously. This leads to very large quantities of missing data which, especially when combined with high-dimensionality, makes the application of conditional imputation methods computationally infeasible. We introduce a new imputation method based on the existing stacked penalized logistic regression (StaPLR) algorithm for multi-view learning. It performs imputation in a dimension-reduced space to address computational challenges inherent to the multi-view context. We compare the performance of the new imputation method with several existing imputation algorithms in simulated data sets. The results show that the new imputation method leads to competitive results at a much lower computational cost, and makes the use of advanced imputation algorithms such as missForest and predictive mean matching possible in settings where they would otherwise be computationally infeasible.
Which Factors are associated with Open Access Publishing? A Springer Nature Case Study
Momeni, Fakhri, Dietze, Stefan, Mayr, Philipp, Biesenbender, Kristin, Peters, Isabella
Open Access (OA) facilitates access to articles. But, authors or funders often must pay the publishing costs preventing authors who do not receive financial support from participating in OA publishing and citation advantage for OA articles. OA may exacerbate existing inequalities in the publication system rather than overcome them. To investigate this, we studied 522,411 articles published by Springer Nature. Employing correlation and regression analyses, we describe the relationship between authors affiliated with countries from different income levels, their choice of publishing model, and the citation impact of their papers. A machine learning classification method helped us to explore the importance of different features in predicting the publishing model. The results show that authors eligible for APC waivers publish more in gold-OA journals than others. In contrast, authors eligible for an APC discount have the lowest ratio of OA publications, leading to the assumption that this discount insufficiently motivates authors to publish in gold-OA journals. We found a strong correlation between the journal rank and the publishing model in gold-OA journals, whereas the OA option is mostly avoided in hybrid journals. Also, results show that the countries' income level, seniority, and experience with OA publications are the most predictive factors for OA publishing in hybrid journals.
Poor Man's Quality Estimation: Predicting Reference-Based MT Metrics Without the Reference
Zouhar, Vilém, Dhuliawala, Shehzaad, Zhou, Wangchunshu, Daheim, Nico, Kocmi, Tom, Jiang, Yuchen Eleanor, Sachan, Mrinmaya
Machine translation quality estimation (QE) predicts human judgements of a translation hypothesis without seeing the reference. State-of-the-art QE systems based on pretrained language models have been achieving remarkable correlations with human judgements yet they are computationally heavy and require human annotations, which are slow and expensive to create. To address these limitations, we define the problem of metric estimation (ME) where one predicts the automated metric scores also without the reference. We show that even without access to the reference, our model can estimate automated metrics ($\rho$=60% for BLEU, $\rho$=51% for other metrics) at the sentence-level. Because automated metrics correlate with human judgements, we can leverage the ME task for pre-training a QE model. For the QE task, we find that pre-training on TER is better ($\rho$=23%) than training for scratch ($\rho$=20%).
A Novel Dual of Shannon Information and Weighting Scheme
Shannon Information theory has achieved great success in not only communication technology where it was originally developed for but also many other science and engineering fields such as machine learning and artificial intelligence. Inspired by the famous weighting scheme TF-IDF, we discovered that information entropy has a natural dual. We complement the classical Shannon information theory by proposing a novel quantity, namely troenpy. Troenpy measures the certainty, commonness and similarity of the underlying distribution. To demonstrate its usefulness, we propose a troenpy based weighting scheme for document with class labels, namely positive class frequency (PCF). On a collection of public datasets we show the PCF based weighting scheme outperforms the classical TF-IDF and a popular Optimal Transportation based word moving distance algorithm in a kNN setting. We further developed a new odds-ratio type feature, namely Expected Class Information Bias(ECIB), which can be regarded as the expected odds ratio of the information quantity entropy and troenpy. In the experiments we observe that including the new ECIB features and simple binary term features in a simple logistic regression model can further significantly improve the performance. The simple new weighting scheme and ECIB features are very effective and can be computed with linear order complexity.
Performance Evaluation of Regression Models in Predicting the Cost of Medical Insurance
Cenita, Jonelle Angelo S., Asuncion, Paul Richie F., Victoriano, Jayson M.
The study aimed to evaluate the regression models' performance in predicting the cost of medical insurance. The Three (3) Regression Models in Machine Learning namely Linear Regression, Gradient Boosting, and Support Vector Machine were used. The performance will be evaluated using the metrics RMSE (Root Mean Square), r2 (R Square), and K-Fold Cross-validation. The study also sought to pinpoint the feature that would be most important in predicting the cost of medical insurance.The study is anchored on the knowledge discovery in databases (KDD) process. (KDD) process refers to the overall process of discovering useful knowledge from data. It show the performance evaluation results reveal that among the three (3) Regression models, Gradient boosting received the highest r2 (R Square) 0.892 and the lowest RMSE (Root Mean Square) 1336.594. Furthermore, the 10-Fold Cross-validation weighted mean findings are not significantly different from the r2 (R Square) results of the three (3) regression models. In addition, Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) using a box plot of descriptive statistics observed that in the charges and smoker features the median of one group lies outside of the box of the other group, so there is a difference between the two groups. It concludes that Gradient boosting appears to perform better among the three (3) regression models. K-Fold Cross-Validation concluded that the three (3) regression models are good. Moreover, Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) using a box plot of descriptive statistics ceases that the highest charges are due to the smoker feature.