One of the biggest expense in software development is the maintenance. Therefore, it is critical to comprehend what triggers maintenance and if it may be predicted. Numerous research have demonstrated that specific methods of assessing the complexity of created programs may produce useful prediction models to ascertain the possibility of maintenance due to software failures. As a routine it is performed prior to the release, and setting up the models frequently calls for certain, object-oriented software measurements. It is not always the case that software developers have access to these measurements. In this paper, the machine learning is applied on the available data to calculate the cumulative software failure levels. A technique to forecast a software`s residual defectiveness using machine learning can be looked into as a solution to the challenge of predicting residual flaws. Software metrics and defect data were separated out of the static source code repository. Static code is used to create software metrics, and reported bugs in the repository are used to gather defect information. By using a correlation method, metrics that had no connection to the defect data were removed. This makes it possible to analyze all the data without pausing the programming process. Large, sophisticated software`s primary issue is that it is impossible to control everything manually, and the cost of an error can be quite expensive. Developers may miss errors during testing as a consequence, which will raise maintenance costs. Finding a method to accurately forecast software defects is the overall objective.

As predictive models -- e.g., from machine learning -- give likely outcomes, they may be used to reason on the effect of an intervention, a causal-inference task. The increasing complexity of health data has opened the door to a plethora of models, but also the Pandora box of model selection: which of these models yield the most valid causal estimates? Here we highlight that classic machine-learning model selection does not select the best outcome models for causal inference. Indeed, causal model selection should control both outcome errors for each individual, treated or not treated, whereas only one outcome is observed. Theoretically, simple risks used in machine learning do not control causal effects when treated and non-treated population differ too much. More elaborate risks build proxies of the causal error using ``nuisance'' re-weighting to compute it on the observed data. But does computing these nuisance adds noise to model selection? Drawing from an extensive empirical study, we outline a good causal model-selection procedure: using the so-called $R\text{-risk}$; using flexible estimators to compute the nuisance models on the train set; and splitting out 10\% of the data to compute risks.

We propose a method for estimation and inference for bounds for heterogeneous causal effect parameters in general sample selection models where the treatment can affect whether an outcome is observed and no exclusion restrictions are available. The method provides conditional effect bounds as functions of policy relevant pre-treatment variables. It allows for conducting valid statistical inference on the unidentified conditional effects. We use a flexible debiased/double machine learning approach that can accommodate non-linear functional forms and high-dimensional confounders. Easily verifiable high-level conditions for estimation, misspecification robust confidence intervals, and uniform confidence bands are provided as well. Re-analyzing data from a large scale field experiment on Facebook, we find significant depolarization effects of counter-attitudinal news subscription nudges. The effect bounds are highly heterogeneous and suggest strong depolarization effects for moderates, conservatives, and younger users.

Shapley values originated in cooperative game theory but are extensively used today as a model-agnostic explanation framework to explain predictions made by complex machine learning models in the industry and academia. There are several algorithmic approaches for computing different versions of Shapley value explanations. Here, we focus on conditional Shapley values for predictive models fitted to tabular data. Estimating precise conditional Shapley values is difficult as they require the estimation of non-trivial conditional expectations. In this article, we develop new methods, extend earlier proposed approaches, and systematize the new refined and existing methods into different method classes for comparison and evaluation. The method classes use either Monte Carlo integration or regression to model the conditional expectations. We conduct extensive simulation studies to evaluate how precisely the different method classes estimate the conditional expectations, and thereby the conditional Shapley values, for different setups. We also apply the methods to several real-world data experiments and provide recommendations for when to use the different method classes and approaches. Roughly speaking, we recommend using parametric methods when we can specify the data distribution almost correctly, as they generally produce the most accurate Shapley value explanations. When the distribution is unknown, both generative methods and regression models with a similar form as the underlying predictive model are good and stable options. Regression-based methods are often slow to train but produce the Shapley value explanations quickly once trained. The vice versa is true for Monte Carlo-based methods, making the different methods appropriate in different practical situations.

Hybrid ensemble, an essential branch of ensembles, has flourished in the regression field, with studies confirming diversity's importance. However, previous ensembles consider diversity in the sub-model training stage, with limited improvement compared to single models. In contrast, this study automatically selects and weights sub-models from a heterogeneous model pool. It solves an optimization problem using an interior-point filtering linear-search algorithm. The objective function innovatively incorporates negative correlation learning as a penalty term, with which a diverse model subset can be selected. The best sub-models from each model class are selected to build the NCL ensemble, which performance is better than the simple average and other state-of-the-art weighting methods. It is also possible to improve the NCL ensemble with a regularization term in the objective function. In practice, it is difficult to conclude the optimal sub-model for a dataset prior due to the model uncertainty. Regardless, our method would achieve comparable accuracy as the potential optimal sub-models. In conclusion, the value of this study lies in its ease of use and effectiveness, allowing the hybrid ensemble to embrace diversity and accuracy.

Label smoothing (LS) adopts smoothed targets in classification tasks. For example, in binary classification, instead of the one-hot target $(1,0)^\top$ used in conventional logistic regression (LR), LR with LS (LSLR) uses the smoothed target $(1-\frac{\alpha}{2},\frac{\alpha}{2})^\top$ with a smoothing level $\alpha\in(0,1)$, which causes squeezing of values of the logit. Apart from the common regularization-based interpretation of LS that leads to an inconsistent probability estimator, we regard LSLR as modifying the loss function and consistent estimator for probability estimation. In order to study the significance of each of these two modifications by LSLR, we introduce a modified LSLR (MLSLR) that uses the same loss function as LSLR and the same consistent estimator as LR, while not squeezing the logits. For the loss function modification, we theoretically show that MLSLR with a larger smoothing level has lower efficiency with correctly-specified models, while it exhibits higher robustness against model misspecification than LR. Also, for the modification of the probability estimator, an experimental comparison between LSLR and MLSLR showed that this modification and squeezing of the logits in LSLR have negative effects on the probability estimation and classification performance. The understanding of the properties of LS provided by these comparisons allows us to propose MLSLR as an improvement over LSLR.

We consider the challenges associated with causal inference in settings where data from a randomized trial is augmented with control data from an external source to improve efficiency in estimating the average treatment effect (ATE). Through the development of a formal causal inference framework, we outline sufficient causal assumptions about the exchangeability between the internal and external controls to identify the ATE and establish the connection to a novel graphical criteria. We propose estimators, review efficiency bounds, develop an approach for efficient doubly-robust estimation even when unknown nuisance models are estimated with flexible machine learning methods, and demonstrate finite-sample performance through a simulation study. To illustrate the ideas and methods, we apply the framework to a trial investigating the effect of risdisplam on motor function in patients with spinal muscular atrophy for which there exists an external set of control patients from a previous trial.

Nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) solves a multivariate optimization problem to estimate the system's optimal control inputs in each control cycle. Such optimization is made more difficult by several factors, such as nonlinearities inherited in the system, highly coupled inputs, and various constraints related to the system's physical limitations. These factors make the optimization to be non-convex and hard to solve traditionally. Genetic algorithm (GA) is typically used extensively to tackle such optimization in several application domains because it does not involve differential calculation or gradient evaluation in its solution estimation. However, the size of the search space in which the GA searches for the optimal control inputs is crucial for the applicability of the GA with systems that require fast response. This paper proposes an approach to accelerate the genetic optimization of NMPC by learning optimal search space size. The proposed approach trains a multivariate regression model to adaptively predict the best smallest search space in every control cycle. The estimated best smallest size of search space is fed to the GA to allow for searching the optimal control inputs within this search space. The proposed approach not only reduces the GA's computational time but also improves the chance of obtaining the optimal control inputs in each cycle. The proposed approach was evaluated on two nonlinear systems and compared with two other genetic-based NMPC approaches implemented on the GPU of a Nvidia Jetson TX2 embedded platform in a processor-in-theloop (PIL) fashion. The results show that the proposed approach provides a 39-53% reduction in computational time. Additionally, it increases the convergence percentage to the optimal control inputs within the cycle's time by 48-56%, resulting in a significant performance enhancement. The source code is available on GitHub. Model predictive control (MPC) is a powerful control method used to control a system while satisfying a set of constraints [1]. It generates the optimal control inputs in each control cycle by minimizing a multivariate optimization problem subject to given constraints.

Optimizing energy consumption and coordination of utility systems have long been a concern of the building industry. Buildings are one of the largest energy consumers in the world, making their energy efficiency crucial for preventing waste and reducing costs. Additionally, buildings generate substantial amounts of raw data, which can be used to understand energy consumption patterns and assist in developing optimization strategies. Using a real-world dataset, this research aims to identify the factors that influence building cost reduction and energy consumption. To achieve this, we utilize three regression models (Lasso Regression, Decision Tree, and Random Forest) to predict primary fuel usage, electrical energy consumption, and cost savings in buildings. An analysis of the factors influencing energy consumption and cost reduction is conducted, and the decision tree algorithm is optimized using metaheuristics. By employing metaheuristic techniques, we fine-tune the decision tree algorithm's parameters and improve its accuracy. Finally, we review the most practical features of potential and nonpotential buildings that can reduce primary fuel usage, electrical energy consumption, and costs

Geographically weighted regression (GWR) is a popular tool for modeling spatial heterogeneity in a regression model. However, the current weighting function used in GWR only considers the geographical distance, while the attribute similarity is totally ignored. In this study, we proposed a covariate weighting function that combines the geographical distance and attribute distance. The covariate-distance weighted regression (CWR) is the extension of GWR including geographical distance and attribute distance. House prices are affected by numerous factors, such as house age, floor area, and land use. Prediction model is used to help understand the characteristics of regional house prices. The CWR was used to understand the relationship between the house price and controlling factors. The CWR can consider the geological and attribute distances, and produce accurate estimates of house price that preserve the weight matrix for geological and attribute distance functions. Results show that the house attributes/conditions and the characteristics of the house, such as floor area and house age, might affect the house price. After factor selection, in which only house age and floor area of a building are considered, the RMSE of the CWR model can be improved by 2.9%-26.3% for skyscrapers when compared to the GWR. CWR can effectively reduce estimation errors from traditional spatial regression models and provide novel and feasible models for spatial estimation.