We propose a novel Bayesian inference framework for distributed differentially private linear regression. We consider a distributed setting where multiple parties hold parts of the data and share certain summary statistics of their portions in privacy-preserving noise. We develop a novel generative statistical model for privately shared statistics, which exploits a useful distributional relation between the summary statistics of linear regression. Bayesian estimation of the regression coefficients is conducted mainly using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, while we also provide a fast version to perform Bayesian estimation in one iteration. The proposed methods have computational advantages over their competitors. We provide numerical results on both real and simulated data, which demonstrate that the proposed algorithms provide well-rounded estimation and prediction.

We introduce a flexible framework that produces high-quality almost-exact matches for causal inference. Most prior work in matching uses ad-hoc distance metrics, often leading to poor quality matches, particularly when there are irrelevant covariates. In this work, we learn an interpretable distance metric for matching, which leads to substantially higher quality matches. The learned distance metric stretches the covariate space according to each covariate's contribution to outcome prediction: this stretching means that mismatches on important covariates carry a larger penalty than mismatches on irrelevant covariates. Our ability to learn flexible distance metrics leads to matches that are interpretable and useful for the estimation of conditional average treatment effects.

The algorithms used to train neural networks, like stochastic gradient descent (SGD), have close parallels to natural processes that navigate a high-dimensional parameter space -- for example protein folding or evolution. Our study uses a Fokker-Planck approach, adapted from statistical physics, to explore these parallels in a single, unified framework. We focus in particular on the stationary state of the system in the long-time limit, which in conventional SGD is out of equilibrium, exhibiting persistent currents in the space of network parameters. As in its physical analogues, the current is associated with an entropy production rate for any given training trajectory. The stationary distribution of these rates obeys the integral and detailed fluctuation theorems -- nonequilibrium generalizations of the second law of thermodynamics. We validate these relations in two numerical examples, a nonlinear regression network and MNIST digit classification. While the fluctuation theorems are universal, there are other aspects of the stationary state that are highly sensitive to the training details. Surprisingly, the effective loss landscape and diffusion matrix that determine the shape of the stationary distribution vary depending on the simple choice of minibatching done with or without replacement. We can take advantage of this nonequilibrium sensitivity to engineer an equilibrium stationary state for a particular application: sampling from a posterior distribution of network weights in Bayesian machine learning. We propose a new variation of stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) that harnesses without replacement minibatching. In an example system where the posterior is exactly known, this SGWORLD algorithm outperforms SGLD, converging to the posterior orders of magnitude faster as a function of the learning rate.

Counterexample-guided repair aims at creating neural networks with mathematical safety guarantees, facilitating the application of neural networks in safety-critical domains. However, whether counterexample-guided repair is guaranteed to terminate remains an open question. We approach this question by showing that counterexample-guided repair can be viewed as a robust optimisation algorithm. While termination guarantees for neural network repair itself remain beyond our reach, we prove termination for more restrained machine learning models and disprove termination in a general setting. We empirically study the practical implications of our theoretical results, demonstrating the suitability of common verifiers and falsifiers for repair despite a disadvantageous theoretical result. Additionally, we use our theoretical insights to devise a novel algorithm for repairing linear regression models based on quadratic programming, surpassing existing approaches.

Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry allows for the creation of orthophotos and digital surface models (DSMs) of a terrain. However, DSMs of water bodies mapped with this technique reveal water surface distortions, preventing the use of photogrammetric data for accurate determination of water surface elevation (WSE). Firstly, we propose a new solution in which a convolutional neural network (CNN) is used as a WSE estimator from photogrammetric DSMs and orthophotos. Second, we improved the previously known "water-edge" method by filtering the outliers using a forward-backwards exponential weighted moving average. Further improvement in these two methods was achieved by performing a linear regression of the WSE values against chainage. The solutions estimate the uncertainty of the predictions. This is the first approach in which DL was used for this task. A brand new machine learning data set has been created. It was collected on a small lowland river in winter and summer conditions. It consists of 322 samples, each corresponding to a 10 by 10 meter area of the river channel and adjacent land. Each data set sample contains orthophoto and DSM arrays as input, along with a single ground-truth WSE value as output. The data set was supplemented with data collected by other researchers that compared the state-of-the-art methods for determining WSE using an UAV. The results of the DL solution were verified using k-fold cross-validation method. This provided an in-depth examination of the model's ability to perform on previously unseen data. The WSE RMSEs differ for each k-fold cross-validation subset and range from 1.7 cm up to 17.2 cm. The RMSE results of the improved "water-edge" method are at least six times lower than the RMSE results achieved by the conventional "water-edge" method. The results obtained by new methods are predominantly outperforming existing ones.

We argue that for analysis of Positive Unlabeled (PU) data under Selected Completely At Random (SCAR) assumption it is fruitful to view the problem as fitting of misspecified model to the data. Namely, we show that the results on misspecified fit imply that in the case when posterior probability of the response is modelled by logistic regression, fitting the logistic regression to the observable PU data which {\it does not} follow this model, still yields the vector of estimated parameters approximately colinear with the true vector of parameters. This observation together with choosing the intercept of the classifier based on optimisation of analogue of F1 measure yields a classifier which performs on par or better than its competitors on several real data sets considered.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Traffic prediction plays a crucial role in alleviating traffic congestion which represents a critical problem globally, resulting in negative consequences such as lost hours of additional travel time and increased fuel consumption. Integrating emerging technologies into transportation systems provides opportunities for improving traffic prediction significantly and brings about new research problems. In order to lay the foundation for understanding the open research challenges in traffic prediction, this survey aims to provide a comprehensive overview of traffic prediction methodologies. Specifically, we focus on the recent advances and emerging research opportunities in Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based traffic prediction methods, due to their recent success and potential in traffic prediction, with an emphasis on multivariate traffic time series modeling. We first provide a list and explanation of the various data types and resources used in the literature. Next, the essential data preprocessing methods within the traffic prediction context are categorized, and the prediction methods and applications are subsequently summarized. Lastly, we present primary research challenges in traffic prediction and discuss some directions for future research.

Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) estimation is one of the main challenges in causal inference with observational data. In addition to Machine Learning based-models, nonparametric estimators called meta-learners have been developed to estimate the CATE with the main advantage of not restraining the estimation to a specific supervised learning method. This task becomes, however, more complicated when the treatment is not binary as some limitations of the naive extensions emerge. This paper looks into meta-learners for estimating the heterogeneous effects of multi-valued treatments. We consider different meta-learners, and we carry out a theoretical analysis of their error upper bounds as functions of important parameters such as the number of treatment levels, showing that the naive extensions do not always provide satisfactory results. We introduce and discuss meta-learners that perform well as the number of treatments increases. We empirically confirm the strengths and weaknesses of those methods with synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. Here we consider estimating which data values are incorrect along a numerical column. We present a model-agnostic approach that can utilize any regressor (i.e. statistical or machine learning model) which was fit to predict values in this column based on the other variables in the dataset. By accounting for various uncertainties, our approach distinguishes between genuine anomalies and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available information in the dataset. We establish theoretical guarantees for our method and show that other approaches like conformal inference struggle to detect errors. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.