Ridge regression with random coefficients provides an important alternative to fixed coefficients regression in high dimensional setting when the effects are expected to be small but not zeros. This paper considers estimation and prediction of random coefficient ridge regression in the setting of transfer learning, where in addition to observations from the target model, source samples from different but possibly related regression models are available. The informativeness of the source model to the target model can be quantified by the correlation between the regression coefficients. This paper proposes two estimators of regression coefficients of the target model as the weighted sum of the ridge estimates of both target and source models, where the weights can be determined by minimizing the empirical estimation risk or prediction risk. Using random matrix theory, the limiting values of the optimal weights are derived under the setting when $p/n \rightarrow \gamma$, where $p$ is the number of the predictors and $n$ is the sample size, which leads to an explicit expression of the estimation or prediction risks. Simulations show that these limiting risks agree very well with the empirical risks. An application to predicting the polygenic risk scores for lipid traits shows such transfer learning methods lead to smaller prediction errors than the single sample ridge regression or Lasso-based transfer learning.

Automated batch refactoring has become a de-facto mechanism to restructure software that may have significant design flaws negatively impacting the code quality and maintainability. Although automated batch refactoring techniques are known to significantly improve overall software quality and maintainability, their impact on resource utilization is not well studied. This paper aims to bridge the gap between batch refactoring code smells and consumption of resources. It determines the relationship between software code smell batch refactoring, and resource consumption. Next, it aims to design algorithms to predict the impact of code smell refactoring on resource consumption. This paper investigates 16 code smell types and their joint effect on resource utilization for 31 open source applications. It provides a detailed empirical analysis of the change in application CPU and memory utilization after refactoring specific code smells in isolation and in batches. This analysis is then used to train regression algorithms to predict the impact of batch refactoring on CPU and memory utilization before making any refactoring decisions. Experimental results also show that our ANN-based regression model provides highly accurate predictions for the impact of batch refactoring on resource consumption. It allows the software developers to intelligently decide which code smells they should refactor jointly to achieve high code quality and maintainability without increasing the application resource utilization. This paper responds to the important and urgent need of software engineers across a broad range of software applications, who are looking to refactor code smells and at the same time improve resource consumption. Finally, it brings forward the concept of resource aware code smell refactoring to the most crucial software applications.

Time-to-event analysis (survival analysis) is used when the response of interest is the time until a pre-specified event occurs. Time-to-event data are sometimes discrete either because time itself is discrete or due to grouping of failure times into intervals or rounding off measurements. In addition, the failure of an individual could be one of several distinct failure types, known as competing risks (events). Most methods and software packages for survival regression analysis assume that time is measured on a continuous scale. It is well-known that naively applying standard continuous-time models with discrete-time data may result in biased estimators of the discrete-time models. The Python package PyDTS, for simulating, estimating and evaluating semi-parametric competing-risks models for discrete-time survival data, is introduced. The package implements a fast procedure that enables including regularized regression methods, such as LASSO and elastic net, among others. A simulation study showcases flexibility and accuracy of the package. The utility of the package is demonstrated by analysing the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) - IV dataset for prediction of hospitalization length of stay.

Endogeneity, i.e. the dependence between noise and covariates, is a common phenomenon in real data due to omitted variables, strategic behaviours, measurement errors etc. In contrast, the existing analyses of stochastic online linear regression with unbounded noise and linear bandits depend heavily on exogeneity, i.e. the independence between noise and covariates. Motivated by this gap, we study the over-and just-identified Instrumental Variable (IV) regression for stochastic online learning. IV regression and the Two-Stage Least Squares approach to it are widely deployed in economics and causal inference to identify the underlying model from an endogenous dataset. Thus, we propose to use an online variant of Two-Stage Least Squares approach, namely O2SLS, to tackle endogeneity in stochastic online learning. Our analysis shows that O2SLS achieves $\mathcal{O}\left(d_x d_z \log ^2 T\right)$ identification and $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(\gamma \sqrt{d_x T}\right)$ oracle regret after $T$ interactions, where $d_x$ and $d_z$ are the dimensions of covariates and IVs, and $\gamma$ is the bias due to endogeneity. For $\gamma=0$, i.e. under exogeneity, O2SLS achieves $\mathcal{O}\left(d_x^2 \log ^2 T\right)$ oracle regret, which is of the same order as that of the stochastic online ridge. Then, we leverage O2SLS as an oracle to design OFUL-IV, a stochastic linear bandit algorithm that can tackle endogeneity and achieves $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(\sqrt{d_x d_z T}\right)$ regret. For different datasets with endogeneity, we experimentally show efficiencies of O2SLS and OFUL-IV in terms of regrets.

Significant wave height forecasting is a key problem in ocean data analytics. Predicting the significant wave height is crucial for estimating the energy production from waves. Moreover, the timely prediction of large waves is important to ensure the safety of maritime operations, e.g. passage of vessels. We frame the task of predicting extreme values of significant wave height as an exceedance probability forecasting problem. Accordingly, we aim at estimating the probability that the significant wave height will exceed a predefined threshold. This task is usually solved using a probabilistic binary classification model. Instead, we propose a novel approach based on a forecasting model. The method leverages the forecasts for the upcoming observations to estimate the exceedance probability according to the cumulative distribution function. We carried out experiments using data from a buoy placed in the coast of Halifax, Canada. The results suggest that the proposed methodology is better than state-of-the-art approaches for exceedance probability forecasting.

In this paper, we propose a new and unified approach for nonparametric regression and conditional distribution learning. Our approach simultaneously estimates a regression function and a conditional generator using a generative learning framework, where a conditional generator is a function that can generate samples from a conditional distribution. The main idea is to estimate a conditional generator that satisfies the constraint that it produces a good regression function estimator. We use deep neural networks to model the conditional generator. Our approach can handle problems with multivariate outcomes and covariates, and can be used to construct prediction intervals. We provide theoretical guarantees by deriving non-asymptotic error bounds and the distributional consistency of our approach under suitable assumptions. We also perform numerical experiments with simulated and real data to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our approach over some existing approaches in various scenarios.

In contrast with classical dynamic programming-based methods, our method can search over non-stationary policy functions, and can directly compute optimal infinite horizon action sequences from a given state. The central idea in our method is the construction of a mapping between infinite horizon action sequences and real numbers in a bounded interval. This construction enables us to formulate an optimization problem for directly computing optimal infinite horizon action sequences, without requiring a policy function. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by applying it to nonlinear optimal control problems. Overall, our contributions provide a novel theoretical framework for formulating and solving reinforcement learning problems.

The increasing significance of digital twin technology across engineering and industrial domains, such as aerospace, infrastructure, and automotive, is undeniable. However, the lack of detailed application-specific information poses challenges to its seamless implementation in practical systems. Data-driven models play a crucial role in digital twins, enabling real-time updates and predictions by leveraging data and computational models. Nonetheless, the fidelity of available data and the scarcity of accurate sensor data often hinder the efficient learning of surrogate models, which serve as the connection between physical systems and digital twin models. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework that begins by developing a robust multi-fidelity surrogate model, subsequently applied for tracking digital twin systems. Our framework integrates polynomial correlated function expansion (PCFE) with the Gaussian process (GP) to create an effective surrogate model called H-PCFE. Going a step further, we introduce deep-HPCFE, a cascading arrangement of models with different fidelities, utilizing nonlinear auto-regression schemes. These auto-regressive schemes effectively address the issue of erroneous predictions from low-fidelity models by incorporating space-dependent cross-correlations among the models. To validate the efficacy of the multi-fidelity framework, we first assess its performance in uncertainty quantification using benchmark numerical examples. Subsequently, we demonstrate its applicability in the context of digital twin systems.

We show that running gradient descent with variable learning rate guarantees loss $f(x) \leq 1.1 \cdot f(x^*) + \epsilon$ for the logistic regression objective, where the error $\epsilon$ decays exponentially with the number of iterations and polynomially with the magnitude of the entries of an arbitrary fixed solution $x^*$. This is in contrast to the common intuition that the absence of strong convexity precludes linear convergence of first-order methods, and highlights the importance of variable learning rates for gradient descent. We also apply our ideas to sparse logistic regression, where they lead to an exponential improvement of the sparsity-error tradeoff.

We study federated learning (FL) -- especially cross-silo FL -- with non-convex loss functions and data from people who do not trust the server or other silos. In this setting, each silo (e.g. hospital) must protect the privacy of each person's data (e.g. patient's medical record), even if the server or other silos act as adversarial eavesdroppers. To that end, we consider inter-silo record-level (ISRL) differential privacy (DP), which requires silo~$i$'s communications to satisfy record/item-level DP. We propose novel ISRL-DP algorithms for FL with heterogeneous (non-i.i.d.) silo data and two classes of Lipschitz continuous loss functions: First, we consider losses satisfying the Proximal Polyak-Lojasiewicz (PL) inequality, which is an extension of the classical PL condition to the constrained setting. In contrast to our result, prior works only considered unconstrained private optimization with Lipschitz PL loss, which rules out most interesting PL losses such as strongly convex problems and linear/logistic regression. Our algorithms nearly attain the optimal strongly convex, homogeneous (i.i.d.) rate for ISRL-DP FL without assuming convexity or i.i.d. data. Second, we give the first private algorithms for non-convex non-smooth loss functions. Our utility bounds even improve on the state-of-the-art bounds for smooth losses. We complement our upper bounds with lower bounds. Additionally, we provide shuffle DP (SDP) algorithms that improve over the state-of-the-art central DP algorithms under more practical trust assumptions. Numerical experiments show that our algorithm has better accuracy than baselines for most privacy levels. All the codes are publicly available at: https://github.com/ghafeleb/Private-NonConvex-Federated-Learning-Without-a-Trusted-Server.