While academic metrics such as transcripts and GPA are commonly used to evaluate students' knowledge acquisition, there is a lack of comprehensive metrics to measure their preparedness for the challenges of post-graduation life. This research paper explores the impact of various factors on university students' readiness for change and transition, with a focus on their preparedness for careers. The methodology employed in this study involves designing a survey based on Paul J. Mayer's "The Balance Wheel" to capture students' sentiments on various life aspects, including satisfaction with the educational process and expectations of salary. The collected data from a KBTU student survey (n=47) were processed through machine learning models: Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest Regression. Subsequently, an intelligent system was built using these models and fuzzy sets. The system is capable of evaluating graduates' readiness for their future careers and demonstrates a high predictive power. The findings of this research have practical implications for educational institutions. Such an intelligent system can serve as a valuable tool for universities to assess and enhance students' preparedness for post-graduation challenges. By recognizing the factors contributing to students' readiness for change, universities can refine curricula and processes to better prepare students for their career journeys.

We consider random forests and LASSO methods for model-based small area estimation when the number of areas with sampled data is a small fraction of the total areas for which estimates are required. Abundant auxiliary information is available for the sampled areas, from the survey, and for all areas, from an exterior source, and the goal is to use auxiliary variables to predict the outcome of interest. We compare areallevel random forests and LASSO approaches to a frequentist forward variable selection approach and a Bayesian shrinkage method. This work is motivated by Ghanaian data available from the sixth Living Standard Survey (GLSS) and the 2010 Population and Housing Census. We estimate the areal mean household log consumption using both datasets. The outcome variable is measured only in the GLSS for 3% of all the areas (136 out of 5019) and more than 170 potential covariates are available from both datasets. Among the four modelling methods considered, the Bayesian shrinkage performed the best in terms of bias, MSE and prediction interval coverages and scores, as assessed through a cross-validation study. We find substantial between-area variation, the log consumption areal point estimates showing a 1.3-fold variation across the GAMA region. The western areas are the poorest while the Accra Metropolitan Area district gathers the richest areas. In 2015, the United Nations (UN) released their 2030 agenda for sustainable development goals (SDGs) consisting of 17 goals, the first of which was to end poverty worldwide (Resolution, General Assembly and others, 2015). For their first SDG, the UN made seven guidelines explicit, including the implementation of "poverty eradication policies" at a disaggregated level. To that end, producing reliable and fine-grained pictures of socioeconomic status and income inequality is fundamental to help decision makers prioritise and target certain areas. These detailed maps help local communities understand their situation compared to their neighbours, which also helps when planning interventions (Bedi et al., 2007). In Ghana, household surveys are collected every few years to measure the living conditions of households across Ghanaian regions and districts and to monitor poverty.

AI powered code-recommendation systems, such as Copilot and CodeWhisperer, provide code suggestions inside a programmer's environment (e.g., an IDE) with the aim to improve their productivity. Since, in these scenarios, programmers accept and reject suggestions, ideally, such a system should use this feedback in furtherance of this goal. In this work, we leverage prior data of programmers interacting with GitHub Copilot, a system used by millions of programmers, to develop interventions that can save programmer time. We propose a utility theory framework, which models this interaction with programmers and decides which suggestions to display. Our framework Conditional suggestion Display from Human Feedback (CDHF), relies on a cascade of models that predict suggestion acceptance to selectively hide suggestions reducing both latency and programmer verification time. Using data from 535 programmers, we perform a retrospective evaluation of CDHF and show that we can avoid displaying a significant fraction of suggestions that would have been rejected doing so without total knowledge of the suggestions themselves. We further demonstrate the importance of incorporating the programmer's latent unobserved state in deciding when to display suggestions through ablations on user study data. Finally, we showcase that using suggestion acceptance as a reward signal to know which suggestions to display leads to reduced quality suggestions indicating an unexpected pitfall.

The growing number of exoplanet discoveries and advances in machine learning techniques have opened new avenues for exploring and understanding the characteristics of worlds beyond our Solar System. In this study, we employ efficient machine learning approaches to analyze a dataset comprising 762 confirmed exoplanets and eight Solar System planets, aiming to characterize their fundamental quantities. By applying different unsupervised clustering algorithms, we classify the data into two main classes: 'small' and 'giant' planets, with cut-off values at $R_{p}=8.13R_{\oplus}$ and $M_{p}=52.48M_{\oplus}$. This classification reveals an intriguing distinction: giant planets have lower densities, suggesting higher H-He mass fractions, while small planets are denser, composed mainly of heavier elements. We apply various regression models to uncover correlations between physical parameters and their predictive power for exoplanet radius. Our analysis highlights that planetary mass, orbital period, and stellar mass play crucial roles in predicting exoplanet radius. Among the models evaluated, the Support Vector Regression consistently outperforms others, demonstrating its promise for obtaining accurate planetary radius estimates. Furthermore, we derive parametric equations using the M5P and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Notably, our study reveals a noteworthy result: small planets exhibit a positive linear mass-radius relation, aligning with previous findings. Conversely, for giant planets, we observe a strong correlation between planetary radius and the mass of their host stars, which might provide intriguing insights into the relationship between giant planet formation and stellar characteristics.

These lecture notes provide an overview of existing methodologies and recent developments for estimation and inference with high dimensional time series regression models. First, we present main limit theory results for high dimensional dependent data which is relevant to covariance matrix structures as well as to dependent time series sequences. Second, we present main aspects of the asymptotic theory related to time series regression models with many covariates. Third, we discuss various applications of statistical learning methodologies for time series analysis purposes.

The sparse modeling is an evident manifestation capturing the parsimony principle just described, and sparse models are widespread in statistics, physics, information sciences, neuroscience, computational mathematics, and so on. In statistics the many applications of sparse modeling span regression, classification tasks, graphical model selection, sparse M-estimators and sparse dimensionality reduction. It is also particularly effective in many statistical and machine learning areas where the primary goal is to discover predictive patterns from data which would enhance our understanding and control of underlying physical, biological, and other natural processes, beyond just building accurate outcome black-box predictors. Common examples include selecting biomarkers in biological procedures, finding relevant brain activity locations which are predictive about brain states and processes based on fMRI data, and identifying network bottlenecks best explaining end-to-end performance. Moreover, the research and applications of efficient recovery of high-dimensional sparse signals from a relatively small number of observations, which is the main focus of compressed sensing or compressive sensing, have rapidly grown and became an extremely intense area of study beyond classical signal processing. Likewise interestingly, sparse modeling is directly related to various artificial vision tasks, such as image denoising, segmentation, restoration and superresolution, object or face detection and recognition in visual scenes, and action recognition. In this manuscript, we provide a brief introduction of the basic theory underlying sparse representation and compressive sensing, and then discuss some methods for recovering sparse solutions to optimization problems in effective way, together with some applications of sparse recovery in a machine learning problem known as sparse dictionary learning.

Predicting node labels on a given graph is a widely studied problem with many applications, including community detection and molecular graph prediction. This paper considers predicting multiple node labeling functions on graphs simultaneously and revisits this problem from a multitask learning perspective. For a concrete example, consider overlapping community detection: each community membership is a binary node classification task. Due to complex overlapping patterns, we find that negative transfer is prevalent when we apply naive multitask learning to multiple community detection, as task relationships are highly nonlinear across different node labeling. To address the challenge, we develop an algorithm to cluster tasks into groups based on a higher-order task affinity measure. We then fit a multitask model on each task group, resulting in a boosting procedure on top of the baseline model. We estimate the higher-order task affinity measure between two tasks as the prediction loss of one task in the presence of another task and a random subset of other tasks. Then, we use spectral clustering on the affinity score matrix to identify task grouping. We design several speedup techniques to compute the higher-order affinity scores efficiently and show that they can predict negative transfers more accurately than pairwise task affinities. We validate our procedure using various community detection and molecular graph prediction data sets, showing favorable results compared with existing methods. Lastly, we provide a theoretical analysis to show that under a planted block model of tasks on graphs, our affinity scores can provably separate tasks into groups.

Geographic regression models of various descriptions are often applied to identify patterns and anomalies in the determinants of spatially distributed observations. These types of analyses focus on answering why questions about underlying spatial phenomena, e.g., why is crime higher in this locale, why do children in one school district outperform those in another, etc.? Answers to these questions require explanations of the model structure, the choice of parameters, and contextualization of the findings with respect to their geographic context. This is particularly true for local forms of regression models which are focused on the role of locational context in determining human behavior. In this paper, we present GeoExplainer, a visual analytics framework designed to support analysts in creating explanative documentation that summarizes and contextualizes their spatial analyses. As analysts create their spatial models, our framework flags potential issues with model parameter selections, utilizes template-based text generation to summarize model outputs, and links with external knowledge repositories to provide annotations that help to explain the model results. As analysts explore the model results, all visualizations and annotations can be captured in an interactive report generation widget. We demonstrate our framework using a case study modeling the determinants of voting in the 2016 US Presidential Election.

Large-scale models require substantial computational resources for analysis and studying treatment conditions. Specifically, estimating treatment effects using simulations may require a lot of infeasible resources to allocate at every treatment condition. Therefore, it is essential to develop efficient methods to allocate computational resources for estimating treatment effects. Agent-based simulation allows us to generate highly realistic simulation samples. FRED (A Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics) is an agent-based modeling system with a geospatial perspective using a synthetic population constructed based on the U.S. census data. Given its synthetic population, FRED simulations present a baseline for comparable results from different treatment conditions and treatment conditions. In this paper, we show three other methods for estimating treatment effects. In the first method, we resort to brute-force allocation, where all treatment conditions have an equal number of samples with a relatively large number of simulation runs. In the second method, we try to reduce the number of simulation runs by customizing individual samples required for each treatment effect based on the width of confidence intervals around the mean estimates. In the third method, we use a regression model, which allows us to learn across the treatment conditions such that simulation samples allocated for a treatment condition will help better estimate treatment effects in other conditions. We show that the regression-based methods result in a comparable estimate of treatment effects with less computational resources. The reduced variability and faster convergence of model-based estimates come at the cost of increased bias, and the bias-variance trade-off can be controlled by adjusting the number of model parameters (e.g., including higher-order interaction terms in the regression model).

This paper introduces a new data analysis method for big data using a newly defined regression model named multiple model linear regression(MMLR), which separates input datasets into subsets and construct local linear regression models of them. The proposed data analysis method is shown to be more efficient and flexible than other regression based methods. This paper also proposes an approximate algorithm to construct MMLR models based on $(\epsilon,\delta)$-estimator, and gives mathematical proofs of the correctness and efficiency of MMLR algorithm, of which the time complexity is linear with respect to the size of input datasets. This paper also empirically implements the method on both synthetic and real-world datasets, the algorithm shows to have comparable performance to existing regression methods in many cases, while it takes almost the shortest time to provide a high prediction accuracy.