Bayes additive regression trees(BART) is a nonparametric regression model which has gained wide-spread popularity in recent years due to its flexibility and high accuracy of estimation. Soft BART,one variation of BART,improves both practically and heoretically on existing Bayesian sum-of-trees models. One bottleneck for Soft BART is its slow speed in the long MCMC loop. Compared to BART,it use more than about 20 times to complete the calculation with the default setting. We proposed a variant of BART named accelerate Soft BART(ASBART). Simulation studies show that the new method is about 10 times faster than the Soft BART with comparable accuracy. Our code is open-source and available at https://github.com/richael008/XSBART.

With the availability of extraordinarily huge data sets, solving the problems of distributed statistical methodology and computing for such data sets has become increasingly crucial in the big data area. In this paper, we focus on the distributed sparse penalized linear log-contrast model in massive compositional data. In particular, two distributed optimization techniques under centralized and decentralized topologies are proposed for solving the two different constrained convex optimization problems. Both two proposed algorithms are based on the frameworks of Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) and Coordinate Descent Method of Multipliers(CDMM, Lin et al., 2014, Biometrika). It is worth emphasizing that, in the decentralized topology, we introduce a distributed coordinate-wise descent algorithm based on Group ADMM(GADMM, Elgabli et al., 2020, Journal of Machine Learning Research) for obtaining a communication-efficient regularized estimation. Correspondingly, the convergence theories of the proposed algorithms are rigorously established under some regularity conditions. Numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data are conducted to evaluate our proposed algorithms.

The immune response is a dynamic process by which the body determines whether an antigen is self or nonself. The state of this dynamic process is defined by the relative balance and population of inflammatory and regulatory actors which comprise this decision making process. The goal of immunotherapy as applied to, e.g. Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA), then, is to bias the immune state in favor of the regulatory actors - thereby shutting down autoimmune pathways in the response. While there are several known approaches to immunotherapy, the effectiveness of the therapy will depend on how this intervention alters the evolution of this state. Unfortunately, this process is determined not only by the dynamics of the process, but the state of the system at the time of intervention - a state which is difficult if not impossible to determine prior to application of the therapy. To identify such states we consider a mouse model of RA (Collagen-Induced Arthritis (CIA)) immunotherapy; collect high dimensional data on T cell markers and populations of mice after treatment with a recently developed immunotherapy for CIA; and use feature selection algorithms in order to select a lower dimensional subset of this data which can be used to predict both the full set of T cell markers and populations, along with the efficacy of immunotherapy treatment.

Accurate battery lifetime prediction is important for preventative maintenance, warranties, and improved cell design and manufacturing. However, manufacturing variability and usage-dependent degradation make life prediction challenging. Here, we investigate new features derived from capacity-voltage data in early life to predict the lifetime of cells cycled under widely varying charge rates, discharge rates, and depths of discharge. Features were extracted from regularly scheduled reference performance tests (i.e., low rate full cycles) during cycling. The early-life features capture a cell's state of health and the rate of change of component-level degradation modes, some of which correlate strongly with cell lifetime. Using a newly generated dataset from 225 nickel-manganese-cobalt/graphite Li-ion cells aged under a wide range of conditions, we demonstrate a lifetime prediction of in-distribution cells with 15.1% mean absolute percentage error using no more than the first 15% of data, for most cells. Further testing using a hierarchical Bayesian regression model shows improved performance on extrapolation, achieving 21.8% mean absolute percentage error for out-of-distribution cells. Our approach highlights the importance of using domain knowledge of lithium-ion battery degradation modes to inform feature engineering. Further, we provide the community with a new publicly available battery aging dataset with cells cycled beyond 80% of their rated capacity.

The impressive generalization performance of modern neural networks is attributed in part to their ability to implicitly memorize complex training patterns. Inspired by this, we explore a novel mechanism to improve model generalization via explicit memorization. Specifically, we propose the residual-memorization (ResMem) algorithm, a new method that augments an existing prediction model (e.g., a neural network) by fitting the model's residuals with a k-nearest neighbor based regressor. The final prediction is then the sum of the original model and the fitted residual regressor. By construction, ResMem can explicitly memorize the training labels, even when the base model has low capacity. We start by formulating a stylized linear regression problem and rigorously show that ResMem results in a more favorable test risk over a base linear neural network. Then, we empirically show that ResMem consistently improves the test set generalization of the original prediction model across standard vision and natural language processing benchmarks.

Temporal data distribution shift is prevalent in the financial text. How can a financial sentiment analysis system be trained in a volatile market environment that can accurately infer sentiment and be robust to temporal data distribution shifts? In this paper, we conduct an empirical study on the financial sentiment analysis system under temporal data distribution shifts using a real-world financial social media dataset that spans three years. We find that the fine-tuned models suffer from general performance degradation in the presence of temporal distribution shifts. Furthermore, motivated by the unique temporal nature of the financial text, we propose a novel method that combines out-of-distribution detection with time series modeling for temporal financial sentiment analysis. Experimental results show that the proposed method enhances the model's capability to adapt to evolving temporal shifts in a volatile financial market.

This paper introduces a new regularized version of the robust $\tau$-regression estimator for analyzing high-dimensional datasets subject to gross contamination in the response variables and covariates (explanatory variables). The resulting estimator, termed adaptive $\tau$-Lasso, is robust to outliers and high-leverage points. It also incorporates an adaptive $\ell_1$-norm penalty term, which enables the selection of relevant variables and reduces the bias associated with large true regression coefficients. More specifically, this adaptive $\ell_1$-norm penalty term assigns a weight to each regression coefficient. For a fixed number of predictors $p$, we show that the adaptive $\tau$-Lasso has the oracle property, ensuring both variable-selection consistency and asymptotic normality. Asymptotic normality applies only to the entries of the regression vector corresponding to the true support, assuming knowledge of the true regression vector support. We characterize its robustness via the finite-sample breakdown point and the influence function. We carry out extensive simulations and observe that the class of $\tau$-Lasso estimators exhibits robustness and reliable performance in both contaminated and uncontaminated data settings. We also validate our theoretical findings on robustness properties through simulation experiments. In the face of outliers and high-leverage points, the adaptive $\tau$-Lasso and $\tau$-Lasso estimators achieve the best performance or close-to-best performance in terms of prediction and variable selection accuracy compared to other competing regularized estimators for all scenarios considered in this study. Therefore, the adaptive $\tau$-Lasso and $\tau$-Lasso estimators can be effectively employed for a variety of sparse linear regression problems, particularly in high-dimensional settings and when the data is contaminated by outliers and high-leverage points.

We study the performance of empirical risk minimization on the $p$-norm linear regression problem for $p \in (1, \infty)$. We show that, in the realizable case, under no moment assumptions, and up to a distribution-dependent constant, $O(d)$ samples are enough to exactly recover the target. Otherwise, for $p \in [2, \infty)$, and under weak moment assumptions on the target and the covariates, we prove a high probability excess risk bound on the empirical risk minimizer whose leading term matches, up to a constant that depends only on $p$, the asymptotically exact rate. We extend this result to the case $p \in (1, 2)$ under mild assumptions that guarantee the existence of the Hessian of the risk at its minimizer.

Learning with rejection has been a prototypical model for studying the human-AI interaction on prediction tasks. Upon the arrival of a sample instance, the model first uses a rejector to decide whether to accept and use the AI predictor to make a prediction or reject and defer the sample to humans. Learning such a model changes the structure of the original loss function and often results in undesirable non-convexity and inconsistency issues. For the classification with rejection problem, several works develop consistent surrogate losses for the joint learning of the predictor and the rejector, while there have been fewer works for the regression counterpart. This paper studies the regression with rejection (RwR) problem and investigates a no-rejection learning strategy that uses all the data to learn the predictor. We first establish the consistency for such a strategy under the weak realizability condition. Then for the case without the weak realizability, we show that the excessive risk can also be upper bounded with the sum of two parts: prediction error and calibration error. Lastly, we demonstrate the advantage of such a proposed learning strategy with empirical evidence.

As language models (LMs) become more capable, it is increasingly important to align them with human preferences. However, the dominant paradigm for training Preference Models (PMs) for that purpose suffers from fundamental limitations, such as lack of transparency and scalability, along with susceptibility to overfitting the preference dataset. We propose Compositional Preference Models (CPMs), a novel PM framework that decomposes one global preference assessment into several interpretable features, obtains scalar scores for these features from a prompted LM, and aggregates these scores using a logistic regression classifier. CPMs allow to control which properties of the preference data are used to train the preference model and to build it based on features that are believed to underlie the human preference judgment. Our experiments show that CPMs not only improve generalization and are more robust to overoptimization than standard PMs, but also that best-of-n samples obtained using CPMs tend to be preferred over samples obtained using conventional PMs. Overall, our approach demonstrates the benefits of endowing PMs with priors about which features determine human preferences while relying on LM capabilities to extract those features in a scalable and robust way.