In recent years, the development of technologies for causal inference with privacy preservation of distributed data has gained considerable attention. Many existing methods for distributed data focus on resolving the lack of subjects (samples) and can only reduce random errors in estimating treatment effects. In this study, we propose a data collaboration quasi-experiment (DC-QE) that resolves the lack of both subjects and covariates, reducing random errors and biases in the estimation. Our method involves constructing dimensionality-reduced intermediate representations from private data from local parties, sharing intermediate representations instead of private data for privacy preservation, estimating propensity scores from the shared intermediate representations, and finally, estimating the treatment effects from propensity scores. Through numerical experiments on both artificial and real-world data, we confirm that our method leads to better estimation results than individual analyses. While dimensionality reduction loses some information in the private data and causes performance degradation, we observe that sharing intermediate representations with many parties to resolve the lack of subjects and covariates sufficiently improves performance to overcome the degradation caused by dimensionality reduction. Although external validity is not necessarily guaranteed, our results suggest that DC-QE is a promising method. With the widespread use of our method, intermediate representations can be published as open data to help researchers find causalities and accumulate a knowledge base.

This paper explores the application of Shapley Value Regression in dissecting marketing performance at channel-partner level, complementing channel-level Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM). Utilizing real-world data from the financial services industry, we demonstrate the practicality of Shapley Value Regression in evaluating individual partner contributions. Although structured in-field testing along with cooperative game theory is most accurate, it can often be highly complex and expensive to conduct. Shapley Value Regression is thus a more feasible approach to disentangle the influence of each marketing partner within a marketing channel. We also propose a simple method to derive adjusted coefficients of Shapley Value Regression and compares it with alternative approaches.

In this paper, we introduce "InfiAgent-DABench", the first benchmark specifically designed to evaluate LLM-based agents in data analysis tasks. This benchmark contains DAEval, a dataset consisting of 311 data analysis questions derived from 55 CSV files, and an agent framework to evaluate LLMs as data analysis agents. We adopt a format-prompting technique, ensuring questions to be closed-form that can be automatically evaluated. Our extensive benchmarking of 23 state-of-the-art LLMs uncovers the current challenges encountered in data analysis tasks. In addition, we have developed DAAgent, a specialized agent trained on instruction-tuning datasets. Evaluation datasets and toolkits for InfiAgent-DABench are released at https://github.com/InfiAgent/InfiAgent.

We discuss the issue of finding a good mathematical programming solver configuration for a particular instance of a given problem, and we propose a two-phase approach to solve it. In the first phase we learn the relationships between the instance, the configuration and the performance of the configured solver on the given instance. A specific difficulty of learning a good solver configuration is that parameter settings may not all be independent; this requires enforcing (hard) constraints, something that many widely used supervised learning methods cannot natively achieve. We tackle this issue in the second phase of our approach, where we use the learnt information to construct and solve an optimization problem having an explicit representation of the dependency/consistency constraints on the configuration parameter settings. We discuss computational results for two different instantiations of this approach on a unit commitment problem arising in the short-term planning of hydro valleys. We use logistic regression as the supervised learning methodology and consider CPLEX as the solver of interest.

An important task in the field of sensor technology is the efficient implementation of adaptation procedures of measurements from one sensor to another sensor of identical design. One idea is to use the estimation of an affine transformation between different systems, which can be improved by the knowledge of experts. This paper presents an improved solution from Glacier Research that was published back in 1973. The results demonstrate the adaptability of this solution for various applications, including software calibration of sensors, implementation of expert-based adaptation, and paving the way for future advancements such as distributed learning methods. One idea here is to use the knowledge of experts for estimating an affine transformation between different systems. We evaluate our research with simulations and also with real measured data of a multi-sensor board with 8 identical sensors. Both data set and evaluation script are provided for download. The results show an improvement for both the simulation and the experiments with real data.

We propose two novel purpose-built deep learning (DL) models for synthesis of the arterial blood pressure (ABP) waveform in a cuff-less manner, using a single-site photoplethysmography (PPG) signal. We utilize the public UCI dataset on cuff-less blood pressure (CLBP) estimation to train and evaluate our DL models. Firstly, we implement a transformer model that incorporates positional encoding, multi-head attention, layer normalization, and dropout techniques, and synthesizes the ABP waveform with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 14. Secondly, we implement a frequency-domain (FD) learning approach where we first obtain the discrete cosine transform (DCT) coefficients of the PPG and ABP signals corresponding to two cardiac cycles, and then learn a linear/non-linear (L/NL) regression between them. We learn that the FD L/NL regression model outperforms the transformer model by achieving an MAE of 11.87 and 8.01, for diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and systolic blood pressure (SBP), respectively. Our FD L/NL regression model also fulfills the AAMI criterion of utilizing data from more than 85 subjects, and achieves grade B by the BHS criterion.

Survival analysis studies and predicts the time of death, or other singular unrepeated events, based on historical data, while the true time of death for some instances is unknown. Survival trees enable the discovery of complex nonlinear relations in a compact human comprehensible model, by recursively splitting the population and predicting a distinct survival distribution in each leaf node. We use dynamic programming to provide the first survival tree method with optimality guarantees, enabling the assessment of the optimality gap of heuristics. We improve the scalability of our method through a special algorithm for computing trees up to depth two. The experiments show that our method's run time even outperforms some heuristics for realistic cases while obtaining similar out-of-sample performance with the state-of-the-art.

Air pollution stands as the fourth leading cause of death globally. While extensive research has been conducted in this domain, most approaches rely on large datasets when it comes to prediction. This limits their applicability in low-resource settings though more vulnerable. This study addresses this gap by proposing a novel machine learning approach for accurate air quality prediction using two months of air quality data. By leveraging the World Weather Repository, the meteorological, air pollutant, and Air Quality Index features from 197 capital cities were considered to predict air quality for the next day. The evaluation of several machine learning models demonstrates the effectiveness of the Random Forest algorithm in generating reliable predictions, particularly when applied to classification rather than regression, approach which enhances the model's generalizability by 42%, achieving a cross-validation score of 0.38 for regression and 0.89 for classification. To instill confidence in the predictions, interpretable machine learning was considered. Finally, a cost estimation comparing the implementation of this solution in high-resource and low-resource settings is presented including a tentative of technology licensing business model. This research highlights the potential for resource-limited countries to independently predict air quality while awaiting larger datasets to further refine their predictions.

We propose SDORE, a semi-supervised deep Sobolev regressor, for the nonparametric estimation of the underlying regression function and its gradient. SDORE employs deep neural networks to minimize empirical risk with gradient norm regularization, allowing computation of the gradient norm on unlabeled data. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the convergence rates of SDORE and establish a minimax optimal rate for the regression function. Crucially, we also derive a convergence rate for the associated plug-in gradient estimator, even in the presence of significant domain shift. These theoretical findings offer valuable prior guidance for selecting regularization parameters and determining the size of the neural network, while showcasing the provable advantage of leveraging unlabeled data in semi-supervised learning. To the best of our knowledge, SDORE is the first provable neural network-based approach that simultaneously estimates the regression function and its gradient, with diverse applications including nonparametric variable selection and inverse problems. The effectiveness of SDORE is validated through an extensive range of numerical simulations and real data analysis.

Observational cohort studies are increasingly being used for comparative effectiveness research to assess the safety of therapeutics. Recently, various doubly robust methods have been proposed for average treatment effect estimation by combining the treatment model and the outcome model via different vehicles, such as matching, weighting, and regression. The key advantage of doubly robust estimators is that they require either the treatment model or the outcome model to be correctly specified to obtain a consistent estimator of average treatment effects, and therefore lead to a more accurate and often more precise inference. However, little work has been done to understand how doubly robust estimators differ due to their unique strategies of using the treatment and outcome models and how machine learning techniques can be combined to boost their performance. Here we examine multiple popular doubly robust methods and compare their performance using different treatment and outcome modeling via extensive simulations and a real-world application. We found that incorporating machine learning with doubly robust estimators such as the targeted maximum likelihood estimator gives the best overall performance. Practical guidance on how to apply doubly robust estimators is provided.