Urban research has long recognized that neighbourhoods are dynamic and relational. However, lack of data, methodologies, and computer processing power have hampered a formal quantitative examination of neighbourhood relational dynamics. To make progress on this issue, this study proposes a graph neural network (GNN) approach that permits combining and evaluating multiple sources of information about internal characteristics of neighbourhoods, their past characteristics, and flows of groups among them, potentially providing greater expressive power in predictive models. By exploring a public large-scale dataset from Yelp, we show the potential of our approach for considering structural connectedness in predicting neighbourhood attributes, specifically to predict local culture. Results are promising from a substantive and methodologically point of view. Substantively, we find that either local area information (e.g. area demographics) or group profiles (tastes of Yelp reviewers) give the best results in predicting local culture, and they are nearly equivalent in all studied cases. Methodologically, exploring group profiles could be a helpful alternative where finding local information for specific areas is challenging, since they can be extracted automatically from many forms of online data. Thus, our approach could empower researchers and policy-makers to use a range of data sources when other local area information is lacking.

We consider a variant of online binary classification where a learner sequentially assigns labels ($0$ or $1$) to items with unknown true class. If, but only if, the learner chooses label $1$ they immediately observe the true label of the item. The learner faces a trade-off between short-term classification accuracy and long-term information gain. This problem has previously been studied under the name of the `apple tasting' problem. We revisit this problem as a partial monitoring problem with side information, and focus on the case where item features are linked to true classes via a logistic regression model. Our principal contribution is a study of the performance of Thompson Sampling (TS) for this problem. Using recently developed information-theoretic tools, we show that TS achieves a Bayesian regret bound of an improved order to previous approaches. Further, we experimentally verify that efficient approximations to TS and Information Directed Sampling via P\'{o}lya-Gamma augmentation have superior empirical performance to existing methods.

Counterfactual Explanations (CEs) have emerged as a major paradigm in explainable AI research, providing recourse recommendations for users affected by the decisions of machine learning models. However, when slight changes occur in the parameters of the underlying model, CEs found by existing methods often become invalid for the updated models. The literature lacks a way to certify deterministic robustness guarantees for CEs under model changes, in that existing methods to improve CEs' robustness are heuristic, and the robustness performances are evaluated empirically using only a limited number of retrained models. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel interval abstraction technique for parametric machine learning models, which allows us to obtain provable robustness guarantees of CEs under the possibly infinite set of plausible model changes $\Delta$. We formalise our robustness notion as the $\Delta$-robustness for CEs, in both binary and multi-class classification settings. We formulate procedures to verify $\Delta$-robustness based on Mixed Integer Linear Programming, using which we further propose two algorithms to generate CEs that are $\Delta$-robust. In an extensive empirical study, we demonstrate how our approach can be used in practice by discussing two strategies for determining the appropriate hyperparameter in our method, and we quantitatively benchmark the CEs generated by eleven methods, highlighting the effectiveness of our algorithms in finding robust CEs.

Leverage score is a fundamental problem in machine learning and theoretical computer science. It has extensive applications in regression analysis, randomized algorithms, and neural network inversion. Despite leverage scores are widely used as a tool, in this paper, we study a novel problem, namely the inverting leverage score problem. We analyze to invert the leverage score distributions back to recover model parameters. Specifically, given a leverage score $\sigma \in \mathbb{R}^n$, the matrix $A \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times d}$, and the vector $b \in \mathbb{R}^n$, we analyze the non-convex optimization problem of finding $x \in \mathbb{R}^d$ to minimize $\| \mathrm{diag}( \sigma ) - I_n \circ (A(x) (A(x)^\top A(x) )^{-1} A(x)^\top ) \|_F$, where $A(x):= S(x)^{-1} A \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times d} $, $S(x) := \mathrm{diag}(s(x)) \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times n}$ and $s(x) : = Ax - b \in \mathbb{R}^n$. Our theoretical studies include computing the gradient and Hessian, demonstrating that the Hessian matrix is positive definite and Lipschitz, and constructing first-order and second-order algorithms to solve this regression problem. Our work combines iterative shrinking and the induction hypothesis to ensure global convergence rates for the Newton method, as well as the properties of Lipschitz and strong convexity to guarantee the performance of gradient descent. This important study on inverting statistical leverage opens up numerous new applications in interpretation, data recovery, and security.

Regression is typically treated as a curve-fitting process where the goal is to fit a prediction function to data. With the help of conditional generative adversarial networks, we propose to solve this age-old problem in a different way; we aim to learn a prediction function whose outputs, when paired with the corresponding inputs, are indistinguishable from feature-label pairs in the training dataset. We show that this approach to regression makes fewer assumptions on the distribution of the data we are fitting to and, therefore, has better representation capabilities. We draw parallels with generalized linear models in statistics and show how our proposal serves as an extension of them to neural networks. We demonstrate the superiority of this new approach to standard regression with experiments on multiple synthetic and publicly available real-world datasets, finding encouraging results, especially with real-world heavy-tailed regression datasets. To make our work more reproducible, we release our source code. Link to repository: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/regressGAN-7B71/

The clinical trial process, also known as drug development, is an indispensable step toward the development of new treatments. The major objective of interventional clinical trials is to assess the safety and effectiveness of drug-based treatment in treating certain diseases in the human body. However, clinical trials are lengthy, labor-intensive, and costly. The duration of a clinical trial is a crucial factor that influences overall expenses. Therefore, effective management of the timeline of a clinical trial is essential for controlling the budget and maximizing the economic viability of the research. To address this issue, We propose TrialDura, a machine learning-based method that estimates the duration of clinical trials using multimodal data, including disease names, drug molecules, trial phases, and eligibility criteria. Then, we encode them into Bio-BERT embeddings specifically tuned for biomedical contexts to provide a deeper and more relevant semantic understanding of clinical trial data. Finally, the model's hierarchical attention mechanism connects all of the embeddings to capture their interactions and predict clinical trial duration. Our proposed model demonstrated superior performance with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.04 years and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.39 years compared to the other models, indicating more accurate clinical trial duration prediction. Publicly available code can be found at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/TrialDura-F196

Quantum computers have the potential to outperform classical computers for some complex computational problems. However, current quantum computers (e.g., from IBM and Google) have inherent noise that results in errors in the outputs of quantum software executing on the quantum computers, affecting the reliability of quantum software development. The industry is increasingly interested in machine learning (ML)--based error mitigation techniques, given their scalability and practicality. However, existing ML-based techniques have limitations, such as only targeting specific noise types or specific quantum circuits. This paper proposes a practical ML-based approach, called Q-LEAR, with a novel feature set, to mitigate noise errors in quantum software outputs. We evaluated Q-LEAR on eight quantum computers and their corresponding noisy simulators, all from IBM, and compared Q-LEAR with a state-of-the-art ML-based approach taken as baseline. Results show that, compared to the baseline, Q-LEAR achieved a 25% average improvement in error mitigation on both real quantum computers and simulators. We also discuss the implications and practicality of Q-LEAR, which, we believe, is valuable for practitioners.

This paper focuses on explaining changes over time in globally-sourced, annual temporal data, with the specific objective of identifying pivotal factors that contribute to these temporal shifts. Leveraging such analytical frameworks can yield transformative impacts, including the informed refinement of public policy and the identification of key drivers affecting a country's economic evolution. We employ Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) to shed light on national happiness indices, economic freedom, and population metrics, spanning variable time frames. Acknowledging the presence of missing values, we employ three imputation approaches to generate robust multivariate time-series datasets apt for LIME's input requirements. Our methodology's efficacy is substantiated through a series of empirical evaluations involving multiple datasets. These evaluations include comparative analyses against random feature selection, correlation with real-world events as elucidated by LIME, and validation through Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) plots, a state-of-the-art technique proficient in feature importance detection.

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being used in metrology applications. However, for ML models to be credible in a metrology context they should be accompanied by principled uncertainty quantification. This paper addresses the challenge of uncertainty propagation through trained/fixed machine learning (ML) regression models. Analytical expressions for the mean and variance of the model output are obtained/presented for certain input data distributions and for a variety of ML models. Our results cover several popular ML models including linear regression, penalised linear regression, kernel ridge regression, Gaussian Processes (GPs), support vector machines (SVMs) and relevance vector machines (RVMs). We present numerical experiments in which we validate our methods and compare them with a Monte Carlo approach from a computational efficiency point of view. We also illustrate our methods in the context of a metrology application, namely modelling the state-of-health of lithium-ion cells based upon Electrical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) data

A primary challenge in utilizing in-vitro biological neural networks for computations is finding good encoding and decoding schemes for inputting and decoding data to and from the networks. Furthermore, identifying the optimal parameter settings for a given combination of encoding and decoding schemes adds additional complexity to this challenge. In this study we explore stimulation timing as an encoding method, i.e. we encode information as the delay between stimulation pulses and identify the bounds and acuity of stimulation timings which produce linearly separable spike responses. We also examine the optimal readout parameters for a linear decoder in the form of epoch length, time bin size and epoch offset. Our results suggest that stimulation timings between 36 and 436ms may be optimal for encoding and that different combinations of readout parameters may be optimal at different parts of the evoked spike response.