Continual learning, focused on sequentially learning multiple tasks, has gained significant attention recently. Despite the tremendous progress made in the past, the theoretical understanding, especially factors contributing to catastrophic forgetting, remains relatively unexplored. In this paper, we provide a general theoretical analysis of forgetting in the linear regression model via Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) applicable to both underparameterized and overparameterized regimes. Our theoretical framework reveals some interesting insights into the intricate relationship between task sequence and algorithmic parameters, an aspect not fully captured in previous studies due to their restrictive assumptions. Specifically, we demonstrate that, given a sufficiently large data size, the arrangement of tasks in a sequence, where tasks with larger eigenvalues in their population data covariance matrices are trained later, tends to result in increased forgetting. Additionally, our findings highlight that an appropriate choice of step size will help mitigate forgetting in both underparameterized and overparameterized settings. To validate our theoretical analysis, we conducted simulation experiments on both linear regression models and Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). Results from these simulations substantiate our theoretical findings.

We present PPCEF, a novel method for generating probabilistically plausible counterfactual explanations (CFs). PPCEF advances beyond existing methods by combining a probabilistic formulation that leverages the data distribution with the optimization of plausibility within a unified framework. Compared to reference approaches, our method enforces plausibility by directly optimizing the explicit density function without assuming a particular family of parametrized distributions. This ensures CFs are not only valid (i.e., achieve class change) but also align with the underlying data's probability density. For that purpose, our approach leverages normalizing flows as powerful density estimators to capture the complex high-dimensional data distribution. Furthermore, we introduce a novel loss that balances the trade-off between achieving class change and maintaining closeness to the original instance while also incorporating a probabilistic plausibility term. PPCEF's unconstrained formulation allows for efficient gradient-based optimization with batch processing, leading to orders of magnitude faster computation compared to prior methods. Moreover, the unconstrained formulation of PPCEF allows for the seamless integration of future constraints tailored to specific counterfactual properties. Finally, extensive evaluations demonstrate PPCEF's superiority in generating high-quality, probabilistically plausible counterfactual explanations in high-dimensional tabular settings. This makes PPCEF a powerful tool for not only interpreting complex machine learning models but also for improving fairness, accountability, and trust in AI systems.

The sparse-group lasso performs both variable and group selection, making simultaneous use of the strengths of the lasso and group lasso. It has found widespread use in genetics, a field that regularly involves the analysis of high-dimensional data, due to its sparse-group penalty, which allows it to utilize grouping information. However, the sparse-group lasso can be computationally more expensive than both the lasso and group lasso, due to the added shrinkage complexity, and its additional hyper-parameter that needs tuning. In this paper a novel dual feature reduction method, Dual Feature Reduction (DFR), is presented that uses strong screening rules for the sparse-group lasso and the adaptive sparse-group lasso to reduce their input space before optimization. DFR applies two layers of screening and is based on the dual norms of the sparse-group lasso and adaptive sparse-group lasso. Through synthetic and real numerical studies, it is shown that the proposed feature reduction approach is able to drastically reduce the computational cost in many different scenarios.

Housing has emerged as a crucial concern among young individuals residing in major cities, including Shanghai. Given the unprecedented surge in property prices in this metropolis, young people have increasingly resorted to the rental market to address their housing needs. This study utilizes five traditional machine learning methods: multiple linear regression (MLR), ridge regression (RR), lasso regression (LR), decision tree (DT), and random forest (RF), along with a Large Language Model (LLM) approach using ChatGPT, for predicting the rental prices of lane houses in Shanghai. It applies these methods to examine a public data sample of about 2,609 lane house rental transactions in 2021 in Shanghai, and then compares the results of these methods. In terms of predictive power, RF has achieved the best performance among the traditional methods. However, the LLM approach, particularly in the 10-shot scenario, shows promising results that surpass traditional methods in terms of R-Squared value. The three performance metrics: mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and R-Squared, are used to evaluate the models. Our conclusion is that while traditional machine learning models offer robust techniques for rental price prediction, the integration of LLM such as ChatGPT holds significant potential for enhancing predictive accuracy.

Node classification is a fundamental task, but obtaining node classification labels can be challenging and expensive in many real-world scenarios. Transfer learning has emerged as a promising solution to address this challenge by leveraging knowledge from source domains to enhance learning in a target domain. Existing transfer learning methods for node classification primarily focus on integrating Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) with various transfer learning techniques. While these approaches have shown promising results, they often suffer from a lack of theoretical guarantees, restrictive conditions, and high sensitivity to hyperparameter choices. To overcome these limitations, we propose a Graph Convolutional Multinomial Logistic Regression (GCR) model and a transfer learning method based on the GCR model, called Trans-GCR. We provide theoretical guarantees of the estimate obtained under GCR model in high-dimensional settings. Moreover, Trans-GCR demonstrates superior empirical performance, has a low computational cost, and requires fewer hyperparameters than existing methods.

Uncertainty quantification for multi-view learning is motivated by the increasing use of multi-view data in scientific problems. A common variant of multi-view learning is late fusion: train separate predictors on individual views and combine them after single-view predictions are available. Existing methods for uncertainty quantification for late fusion often rely on undesirable distributional assumptions for validity. Conformal prediction is one approach that avoids such distributional assumptions. However, naively applying conformal prediction to late-stage fusion pipelines often produces overly conservative and uninformative prediction regions, limiting its downstream utility. We propose a novel methodology, Multi-View Conformal Prediction (MVCP), where conformal prediction is instead performed separately on the single-view predictors and only fused subsequently. Our framework extends the standard scalar formulation of a score function to a multivariate score that produces more efficient downstream prediction regions in both classification and regression settings. We then demonstrate that such improvements can be realized in methods built atop conformalized regressors, specifically in robust predict-then-optimize pipelines.

Machine learning (ML) provides algorithms to create computer programs based on data without explicitly programming them. In business process management (BPM), ML applications are used to analyse and improve processes efficiently. Three frequent examples of using ML are providing decision support through predictions, discovering accurate process models, and improving resource allocation. This paper organises the body of knowledge on ML in BPM. We extract BPM tasks from different literature streams, summarise them under the phases of a process`s lifecycle, explain how ML helps perform these tasks and identify technical commonalities in ML implementations across tasks. This study is the first exhaustive review of how ML has been used in BPM. We hope that it can open the door for a new era of cumulative research by helping researchers to identify relevant preliminary work and then combine and further develop existing approaches in a focused fashion. Our paper helps managers and consultants to find ML applications that are relevant in the current project phase of a BPM initiative, like redesigning a business process. We also offer - as a synthesis of our review - a research agenda that spreads ten avenues for future research, including applying novel ML concepts like federated learning, addressing less regarded BPM lifecycle phases like process identification, and delivering ML applications with a focus on end-users.

We address the problem of federated domain generalization in an unsupervised setting for the first time. We first theoretically establish a connection between domain shift and alignment of gradients in unsupervised federated learning and show that aligning the gradients at both client and server levels can facilitate the generalization of the model to new (target) domains. Building on this insight, we propose a novel method named FedGaLA, which performs gradient alignment at the client level to encourage clients to learn domain-invariant features, as well as global gradient alignment at the server to obtain a more generalized aggregated model. To empirically evaluate our method, we perform various experiments on four commonly used multi-domain datasets, PACS, OfficeHome, DomainNet, and TerraInc. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method which outperforms comparable baselines. Ablation and sensitivity studies demonstrate the impact of different components and parameters in our approach. The source code will be available online upon publication.

Machine learning practitioners often face significant challenges in formally integrating their prior knowledge and beliefs into predictive models, limiting the potential for nuanced and context-aware analyses. Moreover, the expertise needed to integrate this prior knowledge into probabilistic modeling typically limits the application of these models to specialists. Our goal is to build a regression model that can process numerical data and make probabilistic predictions at arbitrary locations, guided by natural language text which describes a user's prior knowledge. Large Language Models (LLMs) provide a useful starting point for designing such a tool since they 1) provide an interface where users can incorporate expert insights in natural language and 2) provide an opportunity for leveraging latent problem-relevant knowledge encoded in LLMs that users may not have themselves. We start by exploring strategies for eliciting explicit, coherent numerical predictive distributions from LLMs. We examine these joint predictive distributions, which we call LLM Processes, over arbitrarily-many quantities in settings such as forecasting, multi-dimensional regression, black-box optimization, and image modeling. We investigate the practical details of prompting to elicit coherent predictive distributions, and demonstrate their effectiveness at regression. Finally, we demonstrate the ability to usefully incorporate text into numerical predictions, improving predictive performance and giving quantitative structure that reflects qualitative descriptions. This lets us begin to explore the rich, grounded hypothesis space that LLMs implicitly encode.

Survival analysis aims to predict the timing of future events across various fields, from medical outcomes to customer churn. However, the integration of clustering into survival analysis, particularly for precision medicine, remains underexplored. This study introduces SurvMixClust, a novel algorithm for survival analysis that integrates clustering with survival function prediction within a unified framework. SurvMixClust learns latent representations for clustering while also predicting individual survival functions using a mixture of non-parametric experts. Our evaluations on five public datasets show that SurvMixClust creates balanced clusters with distinct survival curves, outperforms clustering baselines, and competes with non-clustering survival models in predictive accuracy, as measured by the time-dependent c-index and log-rank metrics.