Timely alerts about hazardous air pollutants are crucial for public health. However, existing forecasting models often overlook key factors like baseline parameters and missing data, limiting their accuracy. This study introduces a hybrid approach to address these issues, focusing on forecasting hourly PM2.5 concentrations using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Meta-heuristic algorithms, Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), optimize SVR Hyper-parameters "C" and "Gamma" to enhance prediction accuracy. Evaluation metrics include R-squared (R2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Results show significant improvements with PSO-SVR (R2: 0.9401, RMSE: 0.2390, MAE: 0.1368) and GWO-SVR (R2: 0.9408, RMSE: 0.2376, MAE: 0.1373), indicating robust and accurate models suitable for similar research applications.

Existing works have shown that fine-tuned textual transformer models achieve state-of-the-art prediction performances but are also vulnerable to adversarial text perturbations. Traditional adversarial evaluation is often done \textit{only after} fine-tuning the models and ignoring the training data. In this paper, we want to prove that there is also a strong correlation between training data and model robustness. To this end, we extract 13 different features representing a wide range of input fine-tuning corpora properties and use them to predict the adversarial robustness of the fine-tuned models. Focusing mostly on encoder-only transformer models BERT and RoBERTa with additional results for BART, ELECTRA, and GPT2, we provide diverse evidence to support our argument. First, empirical analyses show that (a) extracted features can be used with a lightweight classifier such as Random Forest to predict the attack success rate effectively, and (b) features with the most influence on the model robustness have a clear correlation with the robustness. Second, our framework can be used as a fast and effective additional tool for robustness evaluation since it (a) saves 30x-193x runtime compared to the traditional technique, (b) is transferable across models, (c) can be used under adversarial training, and (d) robust to statistical randomness. Our code is publicly available at \url{https://github.com/CaptainCuong/RobustText_ACL2024}.

The data mixture for large language model pre-training significantly impacts performance, yet how to determine an effective mixture remains unclear. We propose RegMix to automatically identify a high-performing data mixture by formulating it as a regression task. RegMix involves training a set of small models with diverse data mixtures and fitting a regression model to predict their performance given their respective mixtures. With the fitted regression model, we simulate the top-ranked mixture and use it to train a large-scale model with orders of magnitude more compute. To empirically validate RegMix, we train 512 models with 1M parameters for 1B tokens of different mixtures to fit the regression model and find the optimal mixture. Using this mixture we train a 1B parameter model for 25B tokens (i.e. 1000x larger and 25x longer) which we find performs best among 64 candidate 1B parameter models with other mixtures. Further, our method demonstrates superior performance compared to human selection and achieves results that match or surpass DoReMi, while utilizing only 10% of the compute budget. Our experiments also show that (1) Data mixtures significantly impact performance with single-task performance variations of up to 14.6%; (2) Web corpora rather than data perceived as high-quality like Wikipedia have the strongest positive correlation with downstream performance; (3) Domains interact in complex ways often contradicting common sense, thus automatic approaches like RegMix are needed; (4) Data mixture effects transcend scaling laws, and our approach captures the complexity by considering all domains together. Our code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/regmix.

This paper investigates the relationships between hyperparameters of machine learning and fairness. Data-driven solutions are increasingly used in critical socio-technical applications where ensuring fairness is important. Rather than explicitly encoding decision logic via control and data structures, the ML developers provide input data, perform some pre-processing, choose ML algorithms, and tune hyperparameters (HPs) to infer a program that encodes the decision logic. Prior works report that the selection of HPs can significantly influence fairness. However, tuning HPs to find an ideal trade-off between accuracy, precision, and fairness has remained an expensive and tedious task. Can we predict fairness of HP configuration for a given dataset? Are the predictions robust to distribution shifts? We focus on group fairness notions and investigate the HP space of 5 training algorithms. We first find that tree regressors and XGBoots significantly outperformed deep neural networks and support vector machines in accurately predicting the fairness of HPs. When predicting the fairness of ML hyperparameters under temporal distribution shift, the tree regressors outperforms the other algorithms with reasonable accuracy. However, the precision depends on the ML training algorithm, dataset, and protected attributes. For example, the tree regressor model was robust for training data shift from 2014 to 2018 on logistic regression and discriminant analysis HPs with sex as the protected attribute; but not for race and other training algorithms. Our method provides a sound framework to efficiently perform fine-tuning of ML training algorithms and understand the relationships between HPs and fairness.

We introduce NCP (Neural Conditional Probability), a novel operator-theoretic approach for learning conditional distributions with a particular focus on inference tasks. NCP can be used to build conditional confidence regions and extract important statistics like conditional quantiles, mean, and covariance. It offers streamlined learning through a single unconditional training phase, facilitating efficient inference without the need for retraining even when conditioning changes. By tapping into the powerful approximation capabilities of neural networks, our method efficiently handles a wide variety of complex probability distributions, effectively dealing with nonlinear relationships between input and output variables. Theoretical guarantees ensure both optimization consistency and statistical accuracy of the NCP method. Our experiments show that our approach matches or beats leading methods using a simple Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) with two hidden layers and GELU activations. This demonstrates that a minimalistic architecture with a theoretically grounded loss function can achieve competitive results without sacrificing performance, even in the face of more complex architectures.

Multi-source spatial point data prediction is crucial in fields like environmental monitoring and natural resource management, where integrating data from various sensors is the key to achieving a holistic environmental understanding. Existing models in this area often fall short due to their domain-specific nature and lack a strategy for integrating information from various sources in the absence of ground truth labels. Key challenges include evaluating the quality of different data sources and modeling spatial relationships among them effectively. Addressing these issues, we introduce an innovative multi-source spatial point data prediction framework that adeptly aligns information from varied sources without relying on ground truth labels. A unique aspect of our method is the 'fidelity score,' a quantitative measure for evaluating the reliability of each data source. Furthermore, we develop a geo-location-aware graph neural network tailored to accurately depict spatial relationships between data points. Our framework has been rigorously tested on two real-world datasets and one synthetic dataset. The results consistently demonstrate its superior performance over existing state-of-the-art methods.

In this work, the concept of Braced Fourier Continuation and Regression (BFCR) is introduced. BFCR is a novel and computationally efficient means of finding nonlinear regressions or trend lines in arbitrary one-dimensional data sets. The Braced Fourier Continuation (BFC) and BFCR algorithms are first outlined, followed by a discussion of the properties of BFCR as well as demonstrations of how BFCR trend lines may be used effectively for anomaly detection both within and at the edges of arbitrary one-dimensional data sets. Finally, potential issues which may arise while using BFCR for anomaly detection as well as possible mitigation techniques are outlined and discussed. All source code and example data sets are either referenced or available via GitHub, and all associated code is written entirely in Python.

Pursuing causality from data is a fundamental problem in scientific discovery, treatment intervention, and transfer learning. This paper introduces a novel algorithmic method for addressing nonparametric invariance and causality learning in regression models across multiple environments, where the joint distribution of response variables and covariates varies, but the conditional expectations of outcome given an unknown set of quasi-causal variables are invariant. The challenge of finding such an unknown set of quasi-causal or invariant variables is compounded by the presence of endogenous variables that have heterogeneous effects across different environments, including even one of them in the regression would make the estimation inconsistent. The proposed Focused Adversial Invariant Regularization (FAIR) framework utilizes an innovative minimax optimization approach that breaks down the barriers, driving regression models toward prediction-invariant solutions through adversarial testing. Leveraging the representation power of neural networks, FAIR neural networks (FAIR-NN) are introduced for causality pursuit. It is shown that FAIR-NN can find the invariant variables and quasi-causal variables under a minimal identification condition and that the resulting procedure is adaptive to low-dimensional composition structures in a non-asymptotic analysis. Under a structural causal model, variables identified by FAIR-NN represent pragmatic causality and provably align with exact causal mechanisms under conditions of sufficient heterogeneity. Computationally, FAIR-NN employs a novel Gumbel approximation with decreased temperature and stochastic gradient descent ascent algorithm. The procedures are convincingly demonstrated using simulated and real-data examples.

To facilitate effective decision-making, gridded satellite precipitation products should include uncertainty estimates. Machine learning has been proposed for issuing such estimates. However, most existing algorithms for this purpose rely on quantile regression. Distributional regression offers distinct advantages over quantile regression, including the ability to model intermittency as well as a stronger ability to extrapolate beyond the training data, which is critical for predicting extreme precipitation. In this work, we introduce the concept of distributional regression for the engineering task of creating precipitation datasets through data merging. Building upon this concept, we propose new ensemble learning methods that can be valuable not only for spatial prediction but also for prediction problems in general. These methods exploit conditional zero-adjusted probability distributions estimated with generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS), spline-based GAMLSS and distributional regression forests as well as their ensembles (stacking based on quantile regression, and equal-weight averaging). To identify the most effective methods for our specific problem, we compared them to benchmarks using a large, multi-source precipitation dataset. Stacking emerged as the most successful strategy. Three specific stacking methods achieved the best performance based on the quantile scoring rule, although the ranking of these methods varied across quantile levels. This suggests that a task-specific combination of multiple algorithms could yield significant benefits.

Enhancing the sparsity of data-driven reduced-order models (ROMs) has gained increasing attention in recent years. In this work, we analyze an efficient approach to identifying skillful ROMs with a sparse structure using an information-theoretic indicator called causation entropy. The causation entropy quantifies in a statistical way the additional contribution of each term to the underlying dynamics beyond the information already captured by all the other terms in the ansatz. By doing so, the causation entropy assesses the importance of each term to the dynamics before a parameter estimation procedure is performed. Thus, the approach can be utilized to eliminate terms with little dynamic impact, leading to a parsimonious structure that retains the essential physics. To circumvent the difficulty of estimating high-dimensional probability density functions (PDFs) involved in the causation entropy computation, we leverage Gaussian approximations for such PDFs, which are demonstrated to be sufficient even in the presence of highly non-Gaussian dynamics. The effectiveness of the approach is illustrated by the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation by building sparse causation-based ROMs for various purposes, such as recovering long-term statistics and inferring unobserved dynamics via data assimilation with partial observations.