Goto

Collaborating Authors

 Regression


FedGlu: A personalized federated learning-based glucose forecasting algorithm for improved performance in glycemic excursion regions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices provide real-time glucose monitoring and timely alerts for glycemic excursions, improving glycemic control among patients with diabetes. However, identifying rare events like hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia remain challenging due to their infrequency. Moreover, limited access to sensitive patient data hampers the development of robust machine learning models. Our objective is to accurately predict glycemic excursions while addressing data privacy concerns. To tackle excursion prediction, we propose a novel Hypo-Hyper (HH) loss function, which significantly improves performance in the glycemic excursion regions. The HH loss function demonstrates a 46% improvement over mean-squared error (MSE) loss across 125 patients. To address privacy concerns, we propose FedGlu, a machine learning model trained in a federated learning (FL) framework. FL allows collaborative learning without sharing sensitive data by training models locally and sharing only model parameters across other patients. FedGlu achieves a 35% superior glycemic excursion detection rate compared to local models. This improvement translates to enhanced performance in predicting both, hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia, for 105 out of 125 patients. These results underscore the effectiveness of the proposed HH loss function in augmenting the predictive capabilities of glucose predictions. Moreover, implementing models within a federated learning framework not only ensures better predictive capabilities but also safeguards sensitive data concurrently.


Modeling of Terrain Deformation by a Grouser Wheel for Lunar Rover Simulation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Simulation of vehicle motion in planetary environments is challenging. This is due to the modeling of complex terrain, optical conditions, and terrain-aware vehicle dynamics. One of the critical issues of typical simulators is that they assume terrain is a rigid body, which limits their ability to render wheel traces and compute the wheel-terrain interactions. This prevents, for example, the use of wheel traces as landmarks for localization, as well as the accurate simulation of motion. In the context of lunar regolith, the surface is not rigid but granular. As such, there are differences in the rover's motion, such as sinkage and slippage, and a clear wheel trace left behind the rover, compared to that on a rigid terrain. This study presents a novel approach to integrating a terramechanics-aware terrain deformation engine to simulate a realistic wheel trace in a digital lunar environment. By leveraging Discrete Element Method simulation results alongside experimental single-wheel test data, we construct a regression model to derive deformation height as a function of contact normal force. The region of interest in a height map is retrieved from the wheel poses. The elevation values of corresponding pixels are subsequently modified using contact normal forces and the regression model. Finally, we apply the determined elevation change to each mesh vertex to render wheel traces during runtime. The deformation engine is integrated into our ongoing development of a lunar simulator based on NVIDIA's Omniverse IsaacSim. We hypothesize that our work will be crucial to testing perception and downstream navigation systems under conditions similar to outdoor or terrestrial fields. A demonstration video is available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpzD0h-5hv4


Double Descent: Understanding Linear Model Estimation of Nonidentifiable Parameters and a Model for Overfitting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider ordinary least squares estimation and variations on least squares estimation such as penalized (regularized) least squares and spectral shrinkage estimates for problems with p > n and associated problems with prediction of new observations. After the introduction of Section 1, Section 2 examines a number of commonly used estimators for p > n. Section 3 introduces prediction with p > n. Section 4 introduces notational changes to facilitate discussion of overfitting and Section 5 illustrates the phenomenon of double descent. We conclude with some final comments.


Recent advances in Meta-model of Optimal Prognosis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In real case applications within the virtual prototyping process, it is not always possible to reduce the complexity of the physical models and to obtain numerical models which can be solved quickly. Usually, every single numerical simulation takes hours or even days. Although the progresses in numerical methods and high performance computing, in such cases, it is not possible to explore various model configurations, hence efficient surrogate models are required. Generally the available meta-model techniques show several advantages and disadvantages depending on the investigated problem. In this paper we present an automatic approach for the selection of the optimal suitable meta-model for the actual problem. Together with an automatic reduction of the variable space using advanced filter techniques an efficient approximation is enabled also for high dimensional problems.


Predicting Affective States from Screen Text Sentiment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The proliferation of mobile sensing technologies has enabled the Mobile sensing technologies have been widely used in wellbeing study of various physiological and behavioural phenomena through studies and applications, and the significant advancements in sensing unobtrusive data collection from smartphone sensors. This approach over the last decade have spurred heightened interest in this offers real-time insights into individuals' physical and mental field, often referred to as "digital phenotyping". This approach often states, creating opportunities for personalised treatment and involves the use of smartphone sensors to continuously and unobtrusively interventions. However, the potential of analysing the textual content collect data on various physiological and behavioural viewed on smartphones to predict affective states remains phenomena [9]. Data from a range of smartphone sensors can be underexplored. To better understand how the screen text that users integrated to obtain a comprehensive understanding of a person's are exposed to and interact with can influence their affects, we surroundings, activities, and behaviours [1]. This approach allows investigated a subset of data obtained from a digital phenotyping for real-time monitoring and analysis of individuals' physical and study of Australian university students conducted in 2023. We employed mental states, providing valuable insights into their overall wellbeing linear regression, zero-shot, and multi-shot prompting using and creating opportunities for delivering recommendations and a large language model (LLM) to analyse relationships between interventions based on the user's context.


Feature Selection from Differentially Private Correlations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Data scientists often seek to identify the most important features in high-dimensional datasets. This can be done through $L_1$-regularized regression, but this can become inefficient for very high-dimensional datasets. Additionally, high-dimensional regression can leak information about individual datapoints in a dataset. In this paper, we empirically evaluate the established baseline method for feature selection with differential privacy, the two-stage selection technique, and show that it is not stable under sparsity. This makes it perform poorly on real-world datasets, so we consider a different approach to private feature selection. We employ a correlations-based order statistic to choose important features from a dataset and privatize them to ensure that the results do not leak information about individual datapoints. We find that our method significantly outperforms the established baseline for private feature selection on many datasets.


CSPI-MT: Calibrated Safe Policy Improvement with Multiple Testing for Threshold Policies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

When modifying existing policies in high-risk settings, it is often necessary to ensure with high certainty that the newly proposed policy improves upon a baseline, such as the status quo. In this work, we consider the problem of safe policy improvement, where one only adopts a new policy if it is deemed to be better than the specified baseline with at least pre-specified probability. We focus on threshold policies, a ubiquitous class of policies with applications in economics, healthcare, and digital advertising. Existing methods rely on potentially underpowered safety checks and limit the opportunities for finding safe improvements, so too often they must revert to the baseline to maintain safety. We overcome these issues by leveraging the most powerful safety test in the asymptotic regime and allowing for multiple candidates to be tested for improvement over the baseline. We show that in adversarial settings, our approach controls the rate of adopting a policy worse than the baseline to the pre-specified error level, even in moderate sample sizes. We present CSPI and CSPI-MT, two novel heuristics for selecting cutoff(s) to maximize the policy improvement from baseline. We demonstrate through both synthetic and external datasets that our approaches improve both the detection rates of safe policies and the realized improvement, particularly under stringent safety requirements and low signal-to-noise conditions.


Quantifying Behavioural Distance Between Mathematical Expressions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Existing symbolic regression methods organize the space of candidate mathematical expressions primarily based on their syntactic, structural similarity. However, this approach overlooks crucial equivalences between expressions that arise from mathematical symmetries, such as commutativity, associativity, and distribution laws for arithmetic operations. Consequently, expressions with similar errors on a given data set are apart from each other in the search space. This leads to a rough error landscape in the search space that efficient local, gradient-based methods cannot explore. This paper proposes and implements a measure of a behavioral distance, BED, that clusters together expressions with similar errors. The experimental results show that the stochastic method for calculating BED achieves consistency with a modest number of sampled values for evaluating the expressions. This leads to computational efficiency comparable to the tree-based syntactic distance. Our findings also reveal that BED significantly improves the smoothness of the error landscape in the search space for symbolic regression.


Federated Diabetes Prediction in Canadian Adults Using Real-world Cross-Province Primary Care Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In particular, developing data-driven machine learning models can provide early identification of patients with high risk for diabetes, potentially leading to more effective therapeutic strategies and reduced healthcare costs. However, regulation restrictions create barriers to developing centralized predictive models. This paper addresses the challenges by introducing a federated learning approach, which amalgamates predictive models without centralized data storage and processing, thus avoiding privacy issues. This marks the first application of federated learning to predict diabetes using real clinical datasets in Canada extracted from the Canadian Primary Care Sentinel Surveillance Network (CPCSSN) without crossprovince patient data sharing. We address class-imbalance issues through downsampling techniques and compare federated learning performance against province-based and centralized models. Experimental results show that the federated MLP model presents a similar or higher performance compared to the model trained with the centralized approach. However, the federated logistic regression model showed inferior performance compared to its centralized peer. Introduction Predicting diabetes based on patient risk factors is paramount for the Canadian and global populations due to its significant impact on public health and healthcare costs. The number of patients with chronic disease, including diabetes, in Ontario, Canada alone, increased by 11.0% over the 10-year study period to 9.8 million in 2017/18, and the number with multimorbidity increased by 12.2% to 6.5 million


Inverting the Leverage Score Gradient: An Efficient Approximate Newton Method

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Leverage scores have become essential in statistics and machine learning, aiding regression analysis, randomized matrix computations, and various other tasks. This paper delves into the inverse problem, aiming to recover the intrinsic model parameters given the leverage scores gradient. This endeavor not only enriches the theoretical understanding of models trained with leverage score techniques but also has substantial implications for data privacy and adversarial security. We specifically scrutinize the inversion of the leverage score gradient, denoted as $g(x)$. An innovative iterative algorithm is introduced for the approximate resolution of the regularized least squares problem stated as $\min_{x \in \mathbb{R}^d} 0.5 \|g(x) - c\|_2^2 + 0.5\|\mathrm{diag}(w)Ax\|_2^2$. Our algorithm employs subsampled leverage score distributions to compute an approximate Hessian in each iteration, under standard assumptions, considerably mitigating the time complexity. Given that a total of $T = \log(\| x_0 - x^* \|_2/ \epsilon)$ iterations are required, the cost per iteration is optimized to the order of $O( (\mathrm{nnz}(A) + d^{\omega} ) \cdot \mathrm{poly}(\log(n/\delta))$, where $\mathrm{nnz}(A)$ denotes the number of non-zero entries of $A$.