Numerical simulation is powerful to study nonlinear solid mechanics problems. However, mesh-based or particle-based numerical methods suffer from the common shortcoming of being time-consuming, particularly for complex problems with real-time analysis requirements. This study presents a clustering adaptive Gaussian process regression (CAG) method aiming for real-time prediction for nonlinear structural responses in solid mechanics. It is a data-driven machine learning method featuring a small sample size, high accuracy, and high efficiency, leveraging nonlinear structural response patterns. Similar to the traditional Gaussian process regression (GPR) method, it operates in offline and online stages. In the offline stage, an adaptive sample generation technique is introduced to cluster datasets into distinct patterns for demand-driven sample allocation. This ensures comprehensive coverage of the critical samples for the solution space of interest. In the online stage, following the divide-and-conquer strategy, a pre-prediction classification categorizes problems into predefined patterns sequentially predicted by the trained multi-pattern Gaussian process regressor. In addition, dimension reduction and restoration techniques are employed in the proposed method to enhance its efficiency. A set of problems involving material, geometric, and boundary condition nonlinearities is presented to demonstrate the CAG method's abilities. The proposed method can offer predictions within a second and attain high precision with only about 20 samples within the context of this study, outperforming the traditional GPR using uniformly distributed samples for error reductions ranging from 1 to 3 orders of magnitude. The CAG method is expected to offer a powerful tool for real-time prediction of nonlinear solid mechanical problems and shed light on the complex nonlinear structural response pattern.

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is a widely used algorithm in machine learning, particularly for neural network training. Recent studies on SGD for canonical quadratic optimization or linear regression show it attains well generalization under suitable high-dimensional settings. However, a fundamental question -- for what kinds of high-dimensional learning problems SGD and its accelerated variants can achieve optimality has yet to be well studied. This paper investigates SGD with two essential components in practice: exponentially decaying step size schedule and momentum. We establish the convergence upper bound for momentum accelerated SGD (ASGD) and propose concrete classes of learning problems under which SGD or ASGD achieves min-max optimal convergence rates. The characterization of the target function is based on standard power-law decays in (functional) linear regression. Our results unveil new insights for understanding the learning bias of SGD: (i) SGD is efficient in learning ``dense'' features where the corresponding weights are subject to an infinity norm constraint; (ii) SGD is efficient for easy problem without suffering from the saturation effect; (iii) momentum can accelerate the convergence rate by order when the learning problem is relatively hard. To our knowledge, this is the first work to clearly identify the optimal boundary of SGD versus ASGD for the problem under mild settings.

One thread of empirical work in social science focuses on decomposing group differences in outcomes into unexplained components and components explained by observable factors. In this paper, we study gender wage decompositions, which require estimating the portion of the gender wage gap explained by career histories of workers. Classical methods for decomposing the wage gap employ simple predictive models of wages which condition on a small set of simple summaries of labor history. The problem is that these predictive models cannot take advantage of the full complexity of a worker's history, and the resulting decompositions thus suffer from omitted variable bias (OVB), where covariates that are correlated with both gender and wages are not included in the model. Here we explore an alternative methodology for wage gap decomposition that employs powerful foundation models, such as large language models, as the predictive engine. Foundation models excel at making accurate predictions from complex, high-dimensional inputs. We use a custom-built foundation model, designed to predict wages from full labor histories, to decompose the gender wage gap. We prove that the way such models are usually trained might still lead to OVB, but develop fine-tuning algorithms that empirically mitigate this issue. Our model captures a richer representation of career history than simple models and predicts wages more accurately. In detail, we first provide a novel set of conditions under which an estimator of the wage gap based on a fine-tuned foundation model is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent. Building on the theory, we then propose methods for fine-tuning foundation models that minimize OVB. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we find that history explains more of the gender wage gap than standard econometric models can measure, and we identify elements of history that are important for reducing OVB.

The least squares (LS) estimate is the archetypical solution of linear regression problems. The asymptotic Gaussianity of the scaled LS error is often used to construct approximate confidence ellipsoids around the LS estimate, however, for finite samples these ellipsoids do not come with strict guarantees, unless some strong assumptions are made on the noise distributions. The paper studies the distribution-free Sign-Perturbed Sums (SPS) ellipsoidal outer approximation (EOA) algorithm which can construct non-asymptotically guaranteed confidence ellipsoids under mild assumptions, such as independent and symmetric noise terms. These ellipsoids have the same center and orientation as the classical asymptotic ellipsoids, only their radii are different, which radii can be computed by convex optimization. Here, we establish high probability non-asymptotic upper bounds for the sizes of SPS outer ellipsoids for linear regression problems and show that the volumes of these ellipsoids decrease at the optimal rate. Finally, the difference between our theoretical bounds and the empirical sizes of the regions are investigated experimentally.

We take the perspective in which we want to design a downstream task (such as estimating vegetation coverage) on a certain area of interest (AOI) with a limited labeling budget. By leveraging an existing Foundation Model (FM) we must decide whether we train a downstream model on a different but label-rich AOI hoping it generalizes to our AOI, or we split labels in our AOI for training and validating. In either case, we face choices concerning what FM to use, how to sample our AOI for labeling, etc. which affect both the performance and uncertainty of the results. In this work, we perform a large ablative study using eight existing FMs on either Sentinel 1 or Sentinel 2 as input data, and the classes from the ESA World Cover product as downstream tasks across eleven AOIs. We do repeated sampling and training, resulting in an ablation of some 500K simple linear regression models. Our results show both the limits of spatial generalizability across AOIs and the power of FMs where we are able to get over 0.9 correlation coefficient between predictions and targets on different chip level predictive tasks. And still, performance and uncertainty vary greatly across AOIs, tasks and FMs. We believe this is a key issue in practice, because there are many design decisions behind each FM and downstream task (input modalities, sampling, architectures, pretraining, etc.) and usually a downstream task designer is aware of and can decide upon a few of them. Through this work, we advocate for the usage of the methodology herein described (large ablations on reference global labels and simple probes), both when publishing new FMs, and to make informed decisions when designing downstream tasks to use them.

Gaussian process (GP) methods have been widely studied recently, especially for large-scale systems with big data and even more extreme cases when data is sparse. Key advantages of these methods consist in: 1) the ability to provide inherent ways to assess the impact of uncertainties (especially in the data, and environment) on the solutions, 2) have efficient factorisation based implementations and 3) can be implemented easily in distributed manners and hence provide scalable solutions. This paper reviews the recently developed key factorised GP methods such as the hierarchical off-diagonal low-rank approximation methods and GP with Kronecker structures. An example illustrates the performance of these methods with respect to accuracy and computational complexity.

Background: Patient-reported survey data are used to train prognostic models aimed at improving healthcare. However, such data are typically available multi-centric and, for privacy reasons, cannot easily be centralized in one data repository. Models trained locally are less accurate, robust, and generalizable. We present and apply privacy-preserving federated machine learning techniques for prognostic model building, where local survey data never leaves the legally safe harbors of the medical centers. Methods: We used centralized, local, and federated learning techniques on two healthcare datasets (GLA:D data from the five health regions of Denmark and international SHARE data of 27 countries) to predict two different health outcomes. We compared linear regression, random forest regression, and random forest classification models trained on local data with those trained on the entire data in a centralized and in a federated fashion. Results: In GLA:D data, federated linear regression (R2 0.34, RMSE 18.2) and federated random forest regression (R2 0.34, RMSE 18.3) models outperform their local counterparts (i.e., R2 0.32, RMSE 18.6, R2 0.30, RMSE 18.8) with statistical significance. We also found that centralized models (R2 0.34, RMSE 18.2, R2 0.32, RMSE 18.5, respectively) did not perform significantly better than the federated models. In SHARE, the federated model (AC 0.78, AUROC: 0.71) and centralized model (AC 0.84, AUROC: 0.66) perform significantly better than the local models (AC: 0.74, AUROC: 0.69). Conclusion: Federated learning enables the training of prognostic models from multi-center surveys without compromising privacy and with only minimal or no compromise regarding model performance.

To make sense of massive data, we often first fit simplified models and then interpret the parameters; for example, we cluster the text embeddings and then interpret the mean parameters of each cluster. However, these parameters are often highdimensional and hard to interpret. To make model parameters directly interpretable, we introduce a family of statistical models--including clustering, time series, and classification models--parameterized by natural language predicates. For example, a cluster of text about COVID could be parameterized by the predicate "discusses COVID". To learn these statistical models effectively, we develop a model-agnostic algorithm that optimizes continuous relaxations of predicate parameters with gradient descent and discretizes them by prompting language models (LMs). Finally, we apply our framework to a wide range of problems: taxonomizing user chat dialogues, characterizing how they evolve across time, finding categories where one language model is better than the other, clustering math problems based on subareas, and explaining visual features in memorable images. Our framework is highly versatile, applicable to both textual and visual domains, can be easily steered to focus on specific properties (e.g.

Modern neural models trained on textual data rely on pre-trained representations that emerge without direct supervision. As these representations are increasingly being used in real-world applications, the inability to \emph{control} their content becomes an increasingly important problem. We formulate the problem of identifying and erasing a linear subspace that corresponds to a given concept, in order to prevent linear predictors from recovering the concept. We model this problem as a constrained, linear maximin game, and show that existing solutions are generally not optimal for this task. We derive a closed-form solution for certain objectives, and propose a convex relaxation, \method, that works well for others. When evaluated in the context of binary gender removal, the method recovers a low-dimensional subspace whose removal mitigates bias by intrinsic and extrinsic evaluation. We show that the method is highly expressive, effectively mitigating bias in deep nonlinear classifiers while maintaining tractability and interpretability.

Motivated by the challenges in analyzing gut microbiome and metagenomic data, this work aims to tackle the issue of measurement errors in high-dimensional regression models that involve compositional covariates. This paper marks a pioneering effort in conducting statistical inference on high-dimensional compositional data affected by mismeasured or contaminated data. We introduce a calibration approach tailored for the linear log-contrast model. Under relatively lenient conditions regarding the sparsity level of the parameter, we have established the asymptotic normality of the estimator for inference. Numerical experiments and an application in microbiome study have demonstrated the efficacy of our high-dimensional calibration strategy in minimizing bias and achieving the expected coverage rates for confidence intervals. Moreover, the potential application of our proposed methodology extends well beyond compositional data, suggesting its adaptability for a wide range of research contexts.