In the dynamic landscape of project management, scope changes are an inevitable reality that can significantly impact project performance. These changes, whether initiated by stakeholders, external factors, or internal project dynamics, can lead to cost overruns and schedule delays. Accurately predicting the consequences of these changes is crucial for effective project control and informed decision-making. This study aims to develop predictive models to estimate the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule using machine learning techniques. The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing detailed information on project tasks, including the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), task type, productivity rate, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, task dependencies, scope change magnitude, and scope change timing. Multiple machine learning models are developed and evaluated to predict the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. These models include Linear Regression, Decision Tree, Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost. The dataset is split into training and testing sets, and the models are trained using the preprocessed data. Model robustness and generalization are assessed using cross-validation techniques. To evaluate the performance of models, we use Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R2. Residual plots are generated to assess the goodness of fit and identify any patterns or outliers. Hyperparameter tuning is performed to optimize the XGBoost model and improve its predictive accuracy. The study identifies the most influential project attributes in determining the magnitude of cost and schedule deviations caused by scope modifications. It is identified that productivity rate, scope change magnitude, task dependencies, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, and specific WBS elements are powerful predictors.

This note introduces a doubly robust (DR) estimator for regression discontinuity (RD) designs. RD designs provide a quasi-experimental framework for estimating treatment effects, where treatment assignment depends on whether a running variable surpasses a predefined cutoff. A common approach in RD estimation is the use of nonparametric regression methods, such as local linear regression. However, the validity of these methods still relies on the consistency of the nonparametric estimators. In this study, we propose the DR-RD estimator, which combines two distinct estimators for the conditional expected outcomes. The primary advantage of the DR-RD estimator lies in its ability to ensure the consistency of the treatment effect estimation as long as at least one of the two estimators is consistent. Consequently, our DR-RD estimator enhances robustness of treatment effect estimators in RD designs.

The Transfer Elastic Net is an estimation method for linear regression models that combines $\ell_1$ and $\ell_2$ norm penalties to facilitate knowledge transfer. In this study, we derive a non-asymptotic $\ell_2$ norm estimation error bound for the estimator and discuss scenarios where the Transfer Elastic Net effectively works. Furthermore, we examine situations where it exhibits the grouping effect, which states that the estimates corresponding to highly correlated predictors have a small difference.

Dysarthria, a motor speech disorder, severely impacts voice quality, pronunciation, and prosody, leading to diminished speech intelligibility and reduced quality of life. Accurate assessment is crucial for effective treatment, but traditional perceptual assessments are limited by their subjectivity and resource intensity. To mitigate the limitations, automatic dysarthric speech assessment methods have been proposed to support clinicians on their decision-making. While these methods have shown promising results, most research has focused on monolingual environments. However, multilingual approaches are necessary to address the global burden of dysarthria and ensure equitable access to accurate diagnosis. This thesis proposes a novel multilingual dysarthria severity classification method, by analyzing three languages: English, Korean, and Tamil.

The Tweedie exponential dispersion family is a popular choice among many to model insurance losses that consist of zero-inflated semicontinuous data. In such data, it is often important to obtain credibility (inference) of the most important features that describe the endogenous variables. Post-selection inference is the standard procedure in statistics to obtain confidence intervals of model parameters after performing a feature extraction procedure. For a linear model, the lasso estimate often has non-negligible estimation bias for large coefficients corresponding to exogenous variables. To have valid inference on those coefficients, it is necessary to correct the bias of the lasso estimate. Traditional statistical methods, such as hypothesis testing or standard confidence interval construction might lead to incorrect conclusions during post-selection, as they are generally too optimistic. Here we discuss a few methodologies for constructing confidence intervals of the coefficients after feature selection in the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) family with application to insurance data.

Welcome to our monthly digest, where you can catch up with any AIhub stories you may have missed, peruse the latest news, recap recent events, and more. This month, we hear from AfriClimate AI co-founder Amal Nammouchi, learn about the kidney exchange problem, and find out how to improve the interpretability of logistic regression models. This month, we had the pleasure of chatting to Amal Nammouchi, co-founder of AfriClimate AI, a grassroots community focused on using artificial intelligence to tackle climate challenges in Africa. Amal told us about the inspiration behind the initiative, some of their activities and projects, and plans for the future. In this blog post, Danial Dervovic writes about work presented at IJCAI 2024 on improving the interpretability of logistic regression models.

Sub-seasonal wind speed forecasts provide valuable guidance for wind power system planning and operations, yet the forecasting skills of surface winds decrease sharply after two weeks. However, large-scale variables exhibit greater predictability on this time scale. This study explores the potential of leveraging non-linear relationships between 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) and surface wind speed to improve subs-seasonal wind speed forecasting skills in Europe. Our proposed framework uses a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) or a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to regress surface wind speed from Z500. Evaluations on ERA5 reanalysis indicate that the CNN performs better due to their non-linearity. Applying these models to sub-seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, various verification metrics demonstrate the advantages of non-linearity. Yet, this is partly explained by the fact that these statistical models are under-dispersive since they explain only a fraction of the target variable variance. Introducing stochastic perturbations to represent the stochasticity of the unexplained part from the signal helps compensate for this issue. Results show that the perturbed CNN performs better than the perturbed MLR only in the first weeks, while the perturbed MLR's performance converges towards that of the perturbed CNN after two weeks. The study finds that introducing stochastic perturbations can address the issue of insufficient spread in these statistical models, with improvements from the non-linearity varying with the lead time of the forecasts.

In this paper, we propose a novel intrinsic wrapped Gaussian process regression model for response variable measured on Riemannian manifold. We apply the parallel transport operator to define an intrinsic covariance structure addressing a critical aspect of constructing a well defined Gaussian process regression model. We show that the posterior distribution of regression function is invariant to the choice of orthonormal frames for the coordinate representations of the covariance function. This method can be applied to data situated not only on Euclidean submanifolds but also on manifolds without a natural ambient space. The asymptotic properties for estimating the posterior distribution is established. Numerical studies, including simulation and real-world examples, indicate that the proposed method delivers strong performance.

Self-supervised foundation models have recently been successfully extended to encode three-dimensional (3D) computed tomography (CT) images, with excellent performance across several downstream tasks, such as intracranial hemorrhage detection and lung cancer risk forecasting. However, as self-supervised models learn from complex data distributions, questions arise concerning whether these embeddings capture demographic information, such as age, sex, or race. Using the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) dataset, which contains 3D CT images and demographic data, we evaluated a range of classifiers: softmax regression, linear regression, linear support vector machine, random forest, and decision tree, to predict sex, race, and age of the patients in the images. Our results indicate that the embeddings effectively encoded age and sex information, with a linear regression model achieving a root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.8 years for age prediction and a softmax regression model attaining an AUC of 0.998 for sex classification. Race prediction was less effective, with an AUC of 0.878. These findings suggest a detailed exploration into the information encoded in self-supervised learning frameworks is needed to help ensure fair, responsible, and patient privacy-protected healthcare AI.

Robot-assisted Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection (ESD) improves the surgical procedure by providing a more comprehensive view through advanced robotic instruments and bimanual operation, thereby enhancing dissection efficiency and accuracy. Accurate prediction of dissection trajectories is crucial for better decision-making, reducing intraoperative errors, and improving surgical training. Nevertheless, predicting these trajectories is challenging due to variable tumor margins and dynamic visual conditions. To address this issue, we create the ESD Trajectory and Confidence Map-based Safety Margin (ETSM) dataset with $1849$ short clips, focusing on submucosal dissection with a dual-arm robotic system. We also introduce a framework that combines optimal dissection trajectory prediction with a confidence map-based safety margin, providing a more secure and intelligent decision-making tool to minimize surgical risks for ESD procedures. Additionally, we propose the Regression-based Confidence Map Prediction Network (RCMNet), which utilizes a regression approach to predict confidence maps for dissection areas, thereby delineating various levels of safety margins. We evaluate our RCMNet using three distinct experimental setups: in-domain evaluation, robustness assessment, and out-of-domain evaluation. Experimental results show that our approach excels in the confidence map-based safety margin prediction task, achieving a mean absolute error (MAE) of only $3.18$. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to apply a regression approach for visual guidance concerning delineating varying safety levels of dissection areas. Our approach bridges gaps in current research by improving prediction accuracy and enhancing the safety of the dissection process, showing great clinical significance in practice.