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 Regression


Probabilities-Informed Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As a natural evolution of traditional regression methods [3], ML models such as Support Vector Regression (SVR) [4] and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) [5] have been developed to handle non-linear relationships and highdimensional datasets [6] with increasing accuracy and robustness. For instance, SVR has proven to be a robust regression tool because it can generalize well with limited data and capture nonlinear relationships using kernel functions [7]. Similarly, ANN, inspired by the neural architecture of the human brain, has become foundational to ML [5]. Typically, these methods use inputs (X) and outputs (Y) to construct surrogate models that aim to minimize the difference between the predicted and actual output values. These models have found applications across diverse fields, including engineering, medicine, and economics, demonstrating their versatility and potential [8], [9], [10]. In many real-world applications, additional prior information regarding the output model can be leveraged to enhance its accuracy and robustness [11] [12]. For instance, in physical systems, knowledge of the governing laws of physics has been successfully incorporated into ML by developing physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) [13], leading to improved efficiency and accuracy in prediction tasks [14]. In addition to physical laws, probabilistic information about the structure of the problem may also exist in practical scenarios [15]. Moreover, in many systems, the output variable is inherently probabilistic, necessitating models to approximate the probabilistic structure of the output [16].


Efficient Representations for High-Cardinality Categorical Variables in Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

High\-cardinality categorical variables pose significant challenges in machine learning, particularly in terms of computational efficiency and model interpretability. Traditional one\-hot encoding often results in high\-dimensional sparse feature spaces, increasing the risk of overfitting and reducing scalability. This paper introduces novel encoding techniques, including means encoding, low\-rank encoding, and multinomial logistic regression encoding, to address these challenges. These methods leverage sufficient representations to generate compact and informative embeddings of categorical data. We conduct rigorous theoretical analyses and empirical validations on diverse datasets, demonstrating significant improvements in model performance and computational efficiency compared to baseline methods. The proposed techniques are particularly effective in domains requiring scalable solutions for large datasets, paving the way for more robust and efficient applications in machine learning.


Intelligent Gradient Boosting Algorithms for Estimating Strength of Modified Subgrade Soil

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The performance of pavement under loading depends on the strength of the subgrade. However, experimental estimation of properties of pavement strengths such as California bearing ratio (CBR), unconfined compressive strength (UCS) and resistance value (R) are often tedious, time-consuming and costly, thereby inspiring a growing interest in machine learning based tools which are simple, cheap and fast alternatives. Thus, the potential application of two boosting techniques; categorical boosting (CatBoost) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and support vector regression (SVR), is similarly explored in this study for estimation of properties of subgrade soil modified with hydrated lime activated rice husk ash (HARSH). Using 121 experimental data samples of varying proportions of HARSH, plastic limit, liquid limit, plasticity index, clay activity, optimum moisture content, and maximum dry density as input for CBR, UCS and R estimation, four evaluation metrics namely coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are used to evaluate the models' performance. The results indicate that XGBoost outperformed CatBoost and SVR in estimating these properties, yielding R2 of 0.9994, 0.9995 and 0.9999 in estimating the CBR, UCS and R respectively. Also, SVR outperformed CatBoost in estimating the CBR and R with R2 of 0.9997 respectively. On the other hand, CatBoost outperformed SVR in estimating the UCS with R2 of 0.9994. Feature sensitivity analysis shows that the three machine learning techniques are unanimous that increasing HARSH proportion lead to values of the estimated properties respectively. A comparison with previous results also shows superiority of XGBoost in estimating subgrade properties.


Medical artificial intelligence toolbox (MAIT): an explainable machine learning framework for binary classification, survival modelling, and regression analyses

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While machine learning offers diverse techniques suitable for exploring various medical research questions, a cohesive synergistic framework can facilitate the integration and understanding of new approaches within unified model development and interpretation. We therefore introduce the Medical Artificial Intelligence Toolbox (MAIT), an explainable, open-source Python pipeline for developing and evaluating binary classification, regression, and survival models on tabular datasets. MAIT addresses key challenges (e.g., high dimensionality, class imbalance, mixed variable types, and missingness) while promoting transparency in reporting (TRIPOD+AI compliant). Offering automated configurations for beginners and customizable source code for experts, MAIT streamlines two primary use cases: Discovery (feature importance via unified scoring, e.g., SHapley Additive exPlanations - SHAP) and Prediction (model development and deployment with optimized solutions). Moreover, MAIT proposes new techniques including fine-tuning of probability threshold in binary classification, translation of cumulative hazard curves to binary classification, enhanced visualizations for model interpretation for mixed data types, and handling censoring through semi-supervised learning, to adapt to a wide set of data constraints and study designs. We provide detailed tutorials on GitHub, using four open-access data sets, to demonstrate how MAIT can be used to improve implementation and interpretation of ML models in medical research.


Predicting House Rental Prices in Ghana Using Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The housing market in Ghana has been facing significant challenges, with the rental sector being particularly affected by issues such as the advance rent system, asymmetrical perceptions between landlords and tenants, and the lack of an institutional framework for regulating the market [2]. These challenges create a highly dynamic and often opaque rental environment, where both tenants and landlords face difficulties in determining fair rental prices. This issue is further exacerbated by the absence of comprehensive and up-to-date data on rental trends, making it challenging for stakeholders to make informed decisions. In recent years, the use of machine learning in real estate has gained traction globally as a means to address such challenges. Machine learning (ML) models can analyse large datasets, uncover hidden patterns, and make accurate predictions, thereby providing valuable insights for various stakeholders in the housing market.


Non-asymptotic analysis of the performance of the penalized least trimmed squares in sparse models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The least trimmed squares (LTS) estimator is a renowned robust alternative to the classic least squares estimator and is popular in location, regression, machine learning, and AI literature. Many studies exist on LTS, including its robustness, computation algorithms, extension to non-linear cases, asymptotics, etc. The LTS has been applied in the penalized regression in a high-dimensional real-data sparse-model setting where dimension $p$ (in thousands) is much larger than sample size $n$ (in tens, or hundreds). In such a practical setting, the sample size $n$ often is the count of sub-population that has a special attribute (e.g. the count of patients of Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, Leukemia, or ALS, etc.) among a population with a finite fixed size N. Asymptotic analysis assuming that $n$ tends to infinity is not practically convincing and legitimate in such a scenario. A non-asymptotic or finite sample analysis will be more desirable and feasible. This article establishes some finite sample (non-asymptotic) error bounds for estimating and predicting based on LTS with high probability for the first time.


RieszBoost: Gradient Boosting for Riesz Regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Answering causal questions often involves estimating linear functionals of conditional expectations, such as the average treatment effect or the effect of a longitudinal modified treatment policy. By the Riesz representation theorem, these functionals can be expressed as the expected product of the conditional expectation of the outcome and the Riesz representer, a key component in doubly robust estimation methods. Traditionally, the Riesz representer is estimated indirectly by deriving its explicit analytical form, estimating its components, and substituting these estimates into the known form (e.g., the inverse propensity score). However, deriving or estimating the analytical form can be challenging, and substitution methods are often sensitive to practical positivity violations, leading to higher variance and wider confidence intervals. In this paper, we propose a novel gradient boosting algorithm to directly estimate the Riesz representer without requiring its explicit analytical form. This method is particularly suited for tabular data, offering a flexible, nonparametric, and computationally efficient alternative to existing methods for Riesz regression. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that our algorithm performs on par with or better than indirect estimation techniques across a range of functionals, providing a user-friendly and robust solution for estimating causal quantities.


Deep Transfer $Q$-Learning for Offline Non-Stationary Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In dynamic decision-making scenarios across business and healthcare, leveraging sample trajectories from diverse populations can significantly enhance reinforcement learning (RL) performance for specific target populations, especially when sample sizes are limited. While existing transfer learning methods primarily focus on linear regression settings, they lack direct applicability to reinforcement learning algorithms. This paper pioneers the study of transfer learning for dynamic decision scenarios modeled by non-stationary finite-horizon Markov decision processes, utilizing neural networks as powerful function approximators and backward inductive learning. We demonstrate that naive sample pooling strategies, effective in regression settings, fail in Markov decision processes.To address this challenge, we introduce a novel ``re-weighted targeting procedure'' to construct ``transferable RL samples'' and propose ``transfer deep $Q^*$-learning'', enabling neural network approximation with theoretical guarantees. We assume that the reward functions are transferable and deal with both situations in which the transition densities are transferable or nontransferable. Our analytical techniques for transfer learning in neural network approximation and transition density transfers have broader implications, extending to supervised transfer learning with neural networks and domain shift scenarios. Empirical experiments on both synthetic and real datasets corroborate the advantages of our method, showcasing its potential for improving decision-making through strategically constructing transferable RL samples in non-stationary reinforcement learning contexts.


Most Influential Subset Selection: Challenges, Promises, and Beyond

arXiv.org Machine Learning

How can we attribute the behaviors of machine learning models to their training data? While the classic influence function sheds light on the impact of individual samples, it often fails to capture the more complex and pronounced collective influence of a set of samples. To tackle this challenge, we study the Most Influential Subset Selection (MISS) problem, which aims to identify a subset of training samples with the greatest collective influence. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the prevailing approaches in MISS, elucidating their strengths and weaknesses. Our findings reveal that influence-based greedy heuristics, a dominant class of algorithms in MISS, can provably fail even in linear regression. We delineate the failure modes, including the errors of influence function and the non-additive structure of the collective influence. Conversely, we demonstrate that an adaptive version of these heuristics which applies them iteratively, can effectively capture the interactions among samples and thus partially address the issues. Experiments on real-world datasets corroborate these theoretical findings and further demonstrate that the merit of adaptivity can extend to more complex scenarios such as classification tasks and non-linear neural networks. We conclude our analysis by emphasizing the inherent trade-off between performance and computational efficiency, questioning the use of additive metrics such as the Linear Datamodeling Score, and offering a range of discussions.


A Look into How Machine Learning is Reshaping Engineering Models: the Rise of Analysis Paralysis, Optimal yet Infeasible Solutions, and the Inevitable Rashomon Paradox

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The widespread acceptance of empirically derived codal provisions and equations in civil engineering stands in stark contrast to the skepticism facing machine learning (ML) models, despite their shared statistical foundations. This paper examines this philosophical tension through the lens of structural engineering and explores how integrating ML challenges traditional engineering philosophies and professional identities. Recent efforts have documented how ML enhances predictive accuracy, optimizes designs, and analyzes complex behaviors. However, one might also raise concerns about the diminishing role of human intuition and the interpretability of algorithms. To showcase this rarely explored front, this paper presents how ML can be successfully integrated into various engineering problems by means of formulation via deduction, induction, and abduction. Then, this paper identifies three principal paradoxes that could arise when adopting ML: analysis paralysis (increased prediction accuracy leading to a reduced understanding of physical mechanisms), infeasible solutions (optimization resulting in unconventional designs that challenge engineering intuition), and the Rashomon effect (where contradictions in explainability methods and physics arise). This paper concludes by addressing these paradoxes and arguing the need to rethink epistemological shifts in engineering and engineering education and methodologies to harmonize traditional principles with ML.