In many real-world applications of regression, conditional probability estimation, and uncertainty quantification, exploiting symmetries rooted in physics or geometry can dramatically improve generalization and sample efficiency. While geometric deep learning has made significant empirical advances by incorporating group-theoretic structure, less attention has been given to statistical learning guarantees. In this paper, we introduce an equivariant representation learning framework that simultaneously addresses regression, conditional probability estimation, and uncertainty quantification while providing first-of-its-kind non-asymptotic statistical learning guarantees. Grounded in operator and group representation theory, our framework approximates the spectral decomposition of the conditional expectation operator, building representations that are both equivariant and disentangled along independent symmetry subgroups. Empirical evaluations on synthetic datasets and real-world robotics applications confirm the potential of our approach, matching or outperforming existing equivariant baselines in regression while additionally providing well-calibrated parametric uncertainty estimates.

This paper introduces the shapr R package, a versatile tool for generating Shapley value based prediction explanations for machine learning and statistical regression models. Moreover, the shaprpy Python library brings the core capabilities of shapr to the Python ecosystem. Shapley values originate from cooperative game theory in the 1950s, but have over the past few years become a widely used method for quantifying how a model's features/covariates contribute to specific prediction outcomes. The shapr package emphasizes conditional Shapley value estimates, providing a comprehensive range of approaches for accurately capturing feature dependencies -- a crucial aspect for correct model explanation, typically lacking in similar software. In addition to regular tabular data, the shapr R package includes specialized functionality for explaining time series forecasts. The package offers a minimal set of user functions with sensible default values for most use cases while providing extensive flexibility for advanced users to fine-tune computations. Additional features include parallelized computations, iterative estimation with convergence detection, and rich visualization tools. shapr also extends its functionality to compute causal and asymmetric Shapley values when causal information is available. Overall, the shapr and shaprpy packages aim to enhance the interpretability of predictive models within a powerful and user-friendly framework.

Certified adversarial robustness of large-scale deep networks has progressed substantially after the introduction of randomized smoothing. Deep net classifiers are now provably robust in their predictions against a large class of threat models, including \ell_1, \ell_2, and \ell_\infty norm-bounded attacks. Certified robustness analysis by randomized smoothing has not been performed for deep regression networks where the output variable is continuous and unbounded. In this paper, we extend the existing results for randomized smoothing into regression models using powerful tools from robust statistics, in particular, \alpha -trimming filter as the smoothing function. Adjusting the hyperparameter \alpha achieves a smooth trade-off between desired certified robustness and utility.

Recently it has been observed that neural networks exhibit Neural Collapse (NC) during the final stage of training for the classification problem. We empirically show that multivariate regression, as employed in imitation learning and other applications, exhibits Neural Regression Collapse (NRC), a new form of neural collapse: (NRC1) The last-layer feature vectors collapse to the subspace spanned by the n principal components of the feature vectors, where n is the dimension of the targets (for univariate regression, n 1); (NRC2) The last-layer feature vectors also collapse to the subspace spanned by the last-layer weight vectors; (NRC3) The Gram matrix for the weight vectors converges to a specific functional form that depends on the covariance matrix of the targets. After empirically establishing the prevalence of (NRC1)-(NRC3) for a variety of datasets and network architectures, we provide an explanation of these phenomena by modeling the regression task in the context of the Unconstrained Feature Model (UFM), in which the last layer feature vectors are treated as free variables when minimizing the loss function. We show that when the regularization parameters in the UFM model are strictly positive, then (NRC1)-(NRC3) also emerge as solutions in the UFM optimization problem. We also show that if the regularization parameters are equal to zero, then there is no collapse.

Visual information arriving at the retina is transmitted to the brain by signals in the optic nerve, and the brain must rely solely on these signals to make inferences about the visual world. Previous work has probed the content of these signals by directly reconstructing images from retinal activity using linear regression or nonlinear regression with neural networks. Maximum a posteriori (MAP) reconstruction using retinal encoding models and separately-trained natural image priors offers a more general and principled approach. We develop a novel method for approximate MAP reconstruction that combines a generalized linear model for retinal responses to light, including their dependence on spike history and spikes of neighboring cells, with the image prior implicitly embedded in a deep convolutional neural network trained for image denoising. We use this method to reconstruct natural images from ex vivo simultaneously-recorded spikes of hundreds of retinal ganglion cells uniformly sampling a region of the retina.

Despite the remarkable success of transformer-based models in various real-world tasks, their underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. Recent studies have suggested that transformers can implement gradient descent as an in-context learner for linear regression problems and have developed various theoretical analyses accordingly. However, these works mostly focus on the expressive power of transformers by designing specific parameter constructions, lacking a comprehensive understanding of their inherent working mechanisms post-training. In this study, we consider a sparse linear regression problem and investigate how a trained multi-head transformer performs in-context learning. We experimentally discover that the utilization of multi-heads exhibits different patterns across layers: multiple heads are utilized and essential in the first layer, while usually only a single head is sufficient for subsequent layers.

The task of tuning regularization coefficients in regularized regression models with provable guarantees across problem instances still poses a significant challenge in the literature. This paper investigates the sample complexity of tuning regularization parameters in linear and logistic regressions under \ell_1 and \ell_2 -constraints in the data-driven setting. For the linear regression problem, by more carefully exploiting the structure of the dual function class, we provide a new upper bound for the pseudo-dimension of the validation loss function class, which significantly improves the best-known results on the problem. Remarkably, we also instantiate the first matching lower bound, proving our results are tight. For tuning the regularization parameters of logistic regression, we introduce a new approach to studying the learning guarantee via an approximation of the validation loss function class.

Machine learning (ML) is playing an increasingly important role in scientific research. In conjunction with classical statistical approaches, ML-assisted analytical strategies have shown great promise in accelerating research findings. This has also opened a whole field of methodological research focusing on integrative approaches that leverage both ML and statistics to tackle data science challenges. One type of study that has quickly gained popularity employs ML to predict unobserved outcomes in massive samples, and then uses predicted outcomes in downstream statistical inference. However, existing methods designed to ensure the validity of this type of post-prediction inference are limited to very basic tasks such as linear regression analysis.

Machine unlearning is motivated by principles of data autonomy. The premise is that a person can request to have their data's influence removed from deployed models, and those models should be updated as if they were retrained without the person's data. We show that these updates expose individuals to high-accuracy reconstruction attacks which allow the attacker to recover their data in its entirety, even when the original models are so simple that privacy risk might not otherwise have been a concern. We show how to mount a near-perfect attack on the deleted data point from linear regression models. We then generalize our attack to other loss functions and architectures, and empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our attacks across a wide range of datasets (capturing both tabular and image data).

We characterize the effectiveness of a classical algorithm for recovering the Markov graph of a general discrete pairwise graphical model from i.i.d. The algorithm is (appropriately regularized) maximum conditional log-likelihood, which involves solving a convex program for each node; for Ising models this is \ell_1 -constrained logistic regression, while for more general alphabets an \ell_{2,1} group-norm constraint needs to be used. We show that this algorithm can recover any arbitrary discrete pairwise graphical model, and also characterize its sample complexity as a function of model width, alphabet size, edge parameter accuracy, and the number of variables. We show that along every one of these axes, it matches or improves on all existing results and algorithms for this problem. Our analysis applies a sharp generalization error bound for logistic regression when the weight vector has an \ell_1 (or \ell_{2,1}) constraint and the sample vector has an \ell_{\infty} (or \ell_{2, \infty}) constraint.