Gradient descent (GD) on logistic regression has many fascinating properties. When the dataset is linearly separable, it is known that the iterates converge in direction to the maximum-margin separator regardless of how large the step size is. In the non-separable case, however, it has been shown that GD can exhibit a cycling behaviour even when the step sizes is still below the stability threshold $2/λ$, where $λ$ is the largest eigenvalue of the Hessian at the solution. This short paper explores whether restricting the data to have equal magnitude is a sufficient condition for global convergence, under any step size below the stability threshold. We prove that this is true in a one dimensional space, but in higher dimensions cycling behaviour can still occur. We hope to inspire further studies on quantifying how common these cycles are in realistic datasets, as well as finding sufficient conditions to guarantee global convergence with large step sizes.

Heart disease remains a major global health concern, particularly in regions with limited access to medical resources and diagnostic facilities. Traditional diagnostic methods often fail to accurately identify and manage heart disease risks, leading to adverse outcomes. Machine learning has the potential to significantly enhance the accuracy, efficiency, and speed of heart disease diagnosis. In this study, we proposed a comprehensive framework that combines classification models for heart disease detection and regression models for risk prediction. We employed the Heart Disease dataset, which comprises 1,035 cases. To address the issue of class imbalance, the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) was applied, resulting in the generation of an additional 100,000 synthetic data points. Performance metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, R2, MSE, RMSE, and MAE, were used to evaluate the model's effectiveness. Among the classification models, Random Forest emerged as the standout performer, achieving an accuracy of 97.2% on real data and 97.6% on synthetic data. For regression tasks, Linear Regression demonstrated the highest R2 values of 0.992 and 0.984 on real and synthetic datasets, respectively, with the lowest error metrics. Additionally, Explainable AI techniques were employed to enhance the interpretability of the models. This study highlights the potential of machine learning to revolutionize heart disease diagnosis and risk prediction, thereby facilitating early intervention and enhancing clinical decision-making.

Among techniques for high-dimensional linear regression, Sorted L-One Penalized Estimation (SLOPE) generalizes the LASSO via an adaptive $l_1$ regularization that applies heavier penalties to larger coefficients in the model. To achieve such adaptivity, SLOPE requires the specification of a complex hierarchy of penalties, i.e., a monotone penalty sequence in $R^p$, in contrast to a single penalty scalar for LASSO. Tuning this sequence when $p$ is large poses a challenge, as brute force search over a grid of values is computationally prohibitive. In this work, we study the 2-level SLOPE, an important subclass of SLOPE, with only three hyperparameters. We demonstrate both empirically and analytically that 2-level SLOPE not only preserves the advantages of general SLOPE -- such as improved mean squared error and overcoming the Donoho-Tanner power limit -- but also exhibits computational benefits by reducing the penalty hyperparameter space. In particular, we prove that 2-level SLOPE admits a sharp, theoretically tight characterization of the trade-off between true positive proportion (TPP) and false discovery proportion (FDP), contrasting with general SLOPE where only upper and lower bounds are known. Empirical evaluations further underscore the effectiveness of 2-level SLOPE in settings where predictors exhibit high correlation, when the noise is large, or when the underlying signal is not sparse. Our results suggest that 2-level SLOPE offers a robust, scalable alternative to both LASSO and general SLOPE, making it particularly suited for practical high-dimensional data analysis.

This work examines risk bounds for nonparametric distributional regression estimators. For convex-constrained distributional regression, general upper bounds are established for the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the worst-case mean squared error (MSE) across the domain. These theoretical results are applied to isotonic and trend filtering distributional regression, yielding convergence rates consistent with those for mean estimation. Furthermore, a general upper bound is derived for distributional regression under non-convex constraints, with a specific application to neural network-based estimators. Comprehensive experiments on both simulated and real data validate the theoretical contributions, demonstrating their practical effectiveness.

In-context learning (ICL) has emerged as a powerful capability of large pretrained transformers, enabling them to solve new tasks implicit in example input-output pairs without any gradient updates. Despite its practical success, the mechanisms underlying ICL remain largely mysterious. In this work we study synthetic linear regression to probe how transformers implement learning at inference time. Previous works have demonstrated that transformers match the performance of learning rules such as Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression or gradient descent and have suggested ICL is facilitated in transformers through the learned implementation of one of these techniques. In this work, we demonstrate through a suite of out-of-distribution generalization experiments that transformers trained for ICL fail to generalize after shifts in the prompt distribution, a behaviour that is inconsistent with the notion of transformers implementing algorithms such as OLS. Finally, we highlight the role of the pretraining corpus in shaping ICL behaviour through a spectral analysis of the learned representations in the residual stream. Inputs from the same distribution as the training data produce representations with a unique spectral signature: inputs from this distribution tend to have the same top two singular vectors. This spectral signature is not shared by out-of-distribution inputs, and a metric characterizing the presence of this signature is highly correlated with low loss.

Introduction: Electronic health records (EHR) are a critical medium through which patient stigmatization is perpetuated among healthcare teams. Methods: We identified linguistic features of doubt markers and stigmatizing labels in MIMIC-III EHR via expanded lexicon matching and supervised learning classifiers. Predictors of rates of linguistic features were assessed using Poisson regression models. Results: We found higher rates of stigmatizing labels per chart among patients who were Black or African American (RR: 1.16), patients with Medicare/Medicaid or government-run insurance (RR: 2.46), self-pay (RR: 2.12), and patients with a variety of stigmatizing disease and mental health conditions. Patterns among doubt markers were similar, though male patients had higher rates of doubt markers (RR: 1.25). We found increased stigmatizing labels used by nurses (RR: 1.40), and social workers (RR: 2.25), with similar patterns of doubt markers. Discussion: Stigmatizing language occurred at higher rates among historically stigmatized patients, perpetuated by multiple provider types.

Data depths are score functions that quantify in an unsupervised fashion how central is a point inside a distribution, with numerous applications such as anomaly detection, multivariate or functional data analysis, arising across various fields. The halfspace depth was the first depth to aim at generalising the notion of quantile beyond the univariate case. Among the existing variety of depth definitions, it remains one of the most used notions of data depth. Taking a different angle from the quantile point of view, we show that the halfspace depth can also be regarded as the minimum loss of a set of classifiers for a specific labelling of the points. By changing the loss or the set of classifiers considered, this new angle naturally leads to a family of "loss depths", extending to well-studied classifiers such as, e.g., SVM or logistic regression, among others. This framework directly inherits computational efficiency of existing machine learning algorithms as well as their fast statistical convergence rates, and opens the data depth realm to the high-dimensional setting. Furthermore, the new loss depths highlight a connection between the dataset and the right amount of complexity or simplicity of the classifiers. The simplicity of classifiers as well as the interpretation as a risk makes our new kind of data depth easy to explain, yet efficient for anomaly detection, as is shown by experiments.

In this paper, we develop a novel transfer learning methodology to tackle the challenge of data scarcity in functional linear models. The methodology incorporates samples from the target model (target domain) alongside those from auxiliary models (source domains), transferring knowledge of coefficient shape from the source domains to the target domain. This shape-based knowledge transfer offers two key advantages. First, it is robust to covariate scaling, ensuring effectiveness despite variations in data distributions across different source domains. Second, the notion of coefficient shape homogeneity represents a meaningful advance beyond traditional coefficient homogeneity, allowing the method to exploit a wider range of source domains and achieve significantly improved model estimation. We rigorously analyze the convergence rates of the proposed estimator and examine the minimax optimality. Our findings show that the degree of improvement depends not only on the similarity of coefficient shapes between the target and source domains, but also on coefficient magnitudes and the spectral decay rates of the functional covariates covariance operators. To address situations where only a subset of auxiliary models is informative for the target model, we further develop a data-driven procedure for identifying such informative sources. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through comprehensive simulation studies and an application to occupation time analysis using physical activity data from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

We propose Path Signatures Logistic Regression (PSLR), a semi-parametric framework for classifying vector-valued functional data with scalar covariates. Classical functional logistic regression models rely on linear assumptions and fixed basis expansions, which limit flexibility and degrade performance under irregular sampling. PSLR overcomes these issues by leveraging truncated path signatures to construct a finite-dimensional, basis-free representation that captures nonlinear and cross-channel dependencies. By embedding trajectories as time-augmented paths, PSLR extracts stable, geometry-aware features that are robust to sampling irregularity without requiring a common time grid, while still preserving subject-specific timing patterns. We establish theoretical guarantees for the existence and consistent estimation of the optimal truncation order, along with non-asymptotic risk bounds. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that PSLR outperforms traditional functional classifiers in accuracy, robustness, and interpretability, particularly under non-uniform sampling schemes. Our results highlight the practical and theoretical benefits of integrating rough path theory into modern functional data analysis.

Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) aims to estimate the value of a target policy using offline data collected from potentially different policies. In real-world applications, however, logged data often suffers from missingness. While OPE has been extensively studied in the literature, a theoretical understanding of how missing data affects OPE results remains unclear. In this paper, we investigate OPE in the presence of monotone missingness and theoretically demonstrate that the value estimates remain unbiased under ignorable missingness but can be biased under nonignorable (informative) missingness. To retain the consistency of value estimation, we propose an inverse probability weighted value estimator and conduct statistical inference to quantify the uncertainty of the estimates. Through a series of numerical experiments, we empirically demonstrate that our proposed estimator yields a more reliable value inference under missing data.